Rat u Ukrajini

[McCarthy]

 

 

 

 

Just now, McLeod said:

Ovo Z ce da stane rame uz rame sa svastikom kako su krenuli.

 

Čini mi se da su Česi već pričali o tome da hoće da ga izjednače.

Što podržavam naravno.

[Jurgen]

6 hours ago, shonke said:

Pa sto putin nije organizovao referendum da li napasti Ukrajinu?

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk
 

 

Uopste ne pricam konkretno o ovom slucaju, neko generalno o stavovima da granice ne treba menjati. Ja mislim da svako treba da ima pravo da odluci u kojoj drzavi ce da zivi. Uvek cu biti za to da Katalonci, Palestinci, ko god ima pravo na referendum i mislim da je demokratija mnogo bolja i jeftinija od bilo kog rata. 

[Akiro]

1 hour ago, McLeod said:

Ovo Z ce da stane rame uz rame sa svastikom kako su krenuli.

Reče jedan Ukrajinac u nekom intervjuu da Z stoji za zveri. U pravu je čovek.

[Belodedic]

6 hours ago, Amigo said:

Covjek ide iz Kanade, navodno  najbolji snajperista na svijetu, na poziv Zelenskog, sto i mogu shvatiti, bas ga briga za strance, ali ne mogu da shvatim kanadskog premijera koji ohrabruje svoje drzavljanje da idu u rat. Koji je to retard od premijera.

Izgleda da je ekspresno poginuo, ostavio zenu i djecu. 

 

https://en.as.com/en/2022/03/16/latest_news/1647468372_697920.html

 

Nisam nesto primetio da Trudo ohrabruje drzavljane da idu u rat. Nego je u svom stilu zaobisao pitanje. Ovde imas dobar pregled trenutne situacije iz pravne perspektive kao i izjave ministara. 

 

A sto se tice ovog snajperiste, jos uvek nigde nije potvrdjeno da je on poginuo. Vec su dva puta pisali da je poginuo, a za prvi put znamo sigurno da je bila laz jer se javio kasnije preko svoje stranice na Facebook-u. Sad pisu da je poginuo nakon 20 minuta po dolasku u Marijupolj i to bez ispaljenog metka. Zvuci jako nerealno, samim tim sto znamo da niko ne moze ni da udje ni da izadje iz tog grada, a kamoli strani borac. I bas oni znaju da li je ispalio metak ili ne. 

Edited March 18, 2022 by Belodedic

[erwin]

  

Quote

Opinion | Putin’s Strange New Messaging on Russian TV
Russia’s flagship news broadcast is a rare window into Kremlin thinking — which is becoming muddier as the war drags on.

In the Soviet period, watching the evening news broadcast on state television provided important clues into what was happening inside the Kremlin. One of my first jobs as a young Russian speaker living in Moscow was monitoring those broadcasts for American journalists — which leaders were shown shaking hands with whom could signal who was up or who was down in the Communist Party leadership.

Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has eliminated the last vestiges of independent media in Russia, the evening news broadcast “Vremya” on Channel One — Russia’s main state TV channel — is once again one of the few ways to peek inside the Kremlin. The news show is little changed since Soviet times, heavily focused on Putin and the Kremlin’s official business.

So for the past few weeks, I’ve turned back to monitoring Vremya every night at 9 p.m. Moscow time. I’ve been watching it frame by frame — not so much for signals of what’s happening in Ukraine, but for what is becoming of Russia.

The signals have been contradictory. On the surface, Putin appears to be doubling down on his mission in Ukraine. On Wednesday night’s broadcast, he delivered a speech for over 30 minutes that repeated his accusations that Ukraine has become a “beachhead” for the West’s aggression against Russia, and that his “special military operation” is only taking defensive actions it needs to protect its own security and the Russian-speaking residents of Ukraine.

But beneath the surface, there are signs that the Kremlin’s posture is shifting. These shifts can be seen in changes of language and emphasis, particularly when compared to the messaging of the previous weeks. And they can be seen in the choice of topics; on Thursday, suddenly Putin was focused again on the status of Crimea despite the fact that its annexation has long been considered a done deal in Russia.

Taken together, these shifting messages suggest that at least on some level, Putin understands that all is not going well for Russia, and they may even point to ways that Russia might be beginning to look for a way out.

Here are seven things I’ve observed in the last week.

1. Lack of cohesion in terminology.
Three weeks ago, at the beginning of the invasion, the Russian airwaves were filled with triumphalist rantings about the inevitable Russian “victory” over “fascist” or “Nazi” Ukraine. But in recent days, the term “Nazis” is employed less to describe Ukrainians, in favor of “neo-nationalists.” There is little discernable pattern; the language seems to shift without any strategy.

There is also less mention of whether Ukrainians are a “real” nation or not. Putin has for years poured scorn on the very idea of Ukraine, citing centuries-old arguments and shibboleths. This suggests that Putin may be dialing back his demonization of Ukrainians.

2. Putin’s top advisers have vanished.
Most nights, Putin is shown conferring with his advisers, who appear on a bank of TV monitors in front of him, with no advisers present. But on Tuesday, for instance, not a single member of Russia’s National Security Council was shown on the bank of TV monitors in whatever bunker Putin is holed up in. All of them seem to have either taken impromptu vacations — or simply been banished. The last time there was any fresh footage of Putin’s Cabinet ministers was last Saturday.

This includes Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who previously had been prominently featured on state TV. Shoigu, who has always come across as very level-headed, has been absent for days. This may suggest that he is being set up to be a scapegoat, if and when Putin needs one.

3. Putin is worried about the economy.
The West’s attention has mostly been directed to the bellicose first half of Putin’s speech, but the entire second half was devoted to Russia’s economy. Putin took pains to outline the financial support that will be made available to Russian families, including beefed-up child allowances, and extra financial support for Russian businesses. In the place of his security advisers, Putin was shown with the heads of far-flung Russian regions such as Buryatia, Kaliningrad and Tatarstan in an apparent effort to signal that he is addressing the financial pain that international sanctions will have in all parts of Russia. This wasn’t the first time Putin has devoted significant time on the domestic news to Russians’ financial hardships.

4. Russia is claiming that the Ukrainians have inflicted the worst damage on themselves.
Several days ago, Russian state TV alleged that Ukrainian forces in the southern city of Mariupol had bombed their own maternity hospital. On Wednesday, they claimed that Ukrainian Neo-Nazis had bombed that city’s drama theater, reducing it to shards of concrete and twisted metal. Both attacks, of course, were conducted by Russian forces.

The fact that state TV is trying to deflect the blame for these attacks for the benefit of the Russian domestic audience suggests that they recognize that these attacks will not be well received at home, much less abroad. After all, Mariupol, with a pre-war population of 400,000, was at one time 85 percent Russian-speaking, a fact many Russians will know.

5. Putin is laying the groundwork for the use of biological or chemical weapons.
In his Wednesday speech, Putin repeatedly alleged that the West was using Ukraine to make and stockpile biological and chemical weapons — and even, potentially, nuclear weapons — for use against Russia. There has been increased emphasis on this in recent days. Russian propaganda frequently asserts that an enemy is making moves that Russia itself intends to take, which has the effect domestically of shifting blame for such a step on the enemy instead of Russia. This suggests that if Putin decides to escalate in coming days or weeks, use of biological, chemical or battlefield nuclear weapons may be his plan.

6. Putin is shifting the goal posts.
For the last few days there has been a gradual shift of emphasis away from Kyiv and the Ukrainian government — in fact, Kyiv is now rarely mentioned much if at all. During his Wednesday speech, Putin pointedly claimed that Russia never had a plan to capture the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, even though at the start of the invasion he made clear that he was seeking to control all of the country and Russian artillery has been relentlessly shelling residential areas of the capital for days.

Instead, there has been a renewed emphasis on the necessity of “liberating” the coal mining area broadly known as the Donbas and protecting annexed Crimea and allowing Russian speakers there to freely speak Russian. On Thursday, Putin made an address from an unknown location dwelling at length on Crimea, promising the annexed region social support and road construction. Why the Kremlin chief would suddenly focus on Crimea is strange, since it supposedly is a solidly Russian area whose annexation, at least inside Russia, isn’t in question.

He has several times also mentioned the importance of “neutrality” for Ukraine. Taken together, these shifts may be a signal that Putin is no longer seeking to control all of Ukraine and could accept a settlement of the conflict that instead focuses on the status of Crimea and the separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. The fact that the broadcasts tend to mention ongoing peace discussions between Russian and Ukrainian officials also suggests that Putin hasn’t entirely given up on diplomacy.

7. Putin doesn’t look well.
Many observers have noted that Putin looks puffy and unwell. On Wednesday there was an episode that also suggested that Putin is off his game — about 20 minutes into his speech, his language deteriorated into a ramble. He searched for words, repeating a term roughly similar to “you know.” It then became a diatribe, punctuated with uneasy pauses, even poor use of Russian, full of unnecessary conjunctions and jargon. The clip of Putin’s speech that was posted later on YouTube edited out this section of the broadcast.

To be sure, these are contradictory signals and messages coming from the Kremlin through the state news broadcasts. They are alternately reassuring and alarming: The optimist might be gratified by mention of peace talks and fewer uses of the term “Nazi”, but the pessimist is right to be alarmed that Putin appears to be more isolated than ever and making decisions on his own — even as he toys with his WMD.

But whether the viewer is an optimist or a pessimist, it is at least clear that things are changing inside the Kremlin, that Putin is anxious, that he’s changing tactics, and he’s preparing his domestic audience for those changes. To figure out whether that means more war or some kind of peace — stay tuned.

Lawrence Scott Sheets has worked as a journalist, analyst and diplomat in the countries of the former USSR. He is currently president of Eurasian International Analytics LLC.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/17/putin-russia-state-tv-news-00018304

[Pletilja]

6 hours ago, Angelia said:

Ne pocinju sa time (to je valjda razlika izmedju Evrope i USA), vecina se toga ne seca, tek poneko zna - vise deluje kao da to u Istocnoj Evropi poistovecuju sa "to je tu negde". Znas kao ono kad neko kaze jel znas Peru iz Mirijeva...tako da posto sam ja iz ex-yu, koja je bila komunisticka, i koja je istocna evropa, onda verovatno znam sta Putin radi  obicno kad se sete da sam ja bila u slicnoj situaciji kao Ukrajina, onda im bude neprijatno. 

 

Uglavnom je smesno da sam naprasno postala expert za Putina.

"Mama, sta se desava.....", vec 3 subote mi ovako pocinje razgovor sa cerkom koja zivi u USA, potpuno je apoliticna mada skroz demokratski orijentisana vise zbog porodicnog okruzenja nekad a i sad, u americkoj porodici, zivotni stil joj je "zivi i pusti druge da zive.." i onda nju pitaju "zasto Putin....."digla sam ruke od objasnjavanja istorijskog konteksta, to tamo kod nje tesko moze da prodje cak i kod kolega sa visokim obrazovanjem pa se drzim proverenih cinjenica: Rusija je agresor, krsi odredbe medjunarodnog prava, spremite dugacke gace, ide hladna zima i mozda ce padati crni sneg....uzgred, brinem za zeta, nije otporan na evidentnu inflaciju, iz nabavke se vraca u predinfarktnom stanju....

Edited March 18, 2022 by Pletilja

[Angelia]

56 minutes ago, Pletilja said:

"Mama, sta se desava.....", vec 3 subote mi ovako pocinje razgovor sa cerkom koja zivi u USA, potpuno je apoliticna mada skroz demokratski orijentisana vise zbog porodicnog okruzenja nekad a i sad, u americkoj porodici, zivotni stil joj je "zivi i pusti druge da zive.." i onda nju pitaju "zasto Putin....."digla sam ruke od objasnjavanja istorijskog konteksta, to tamo kod nje tesko moze da prodje cak i kod kolega sa visokim obrazovanjem pa se drzim proverenih cinjenica: Rusija je agresor, krsi odredbe medjunarodnog prava, spremite dugacke gace, ide hladna zima i mozda ce padati crni sneg....uzgred, brinem za zeta, nije otporan na evidentnu inflaciju, iz nabavke se vraca u predinfarktnom stanju....

Bukvalno objasnjavas moju situaciju. Crni je u pravu, u pocetku mi je prijalo da toliko ljudi pitaju moje misljenje. Dok nisam primetila cudni pattern. Zvuci kao da ja licno znam Putina. Nema tu istorijskog kontexta, mislim ima ga, ali nije objasnjenje.

 

Morala sam da pocnem razgovore sa "ja nisam iz Rusije, ne znam Putina, ali ovo je moje misljenje". 

 

Niko nije otporan na evidentnu inflaciju, ovo je record za 40 godina, ako smo otporni moramo barem da imamo 70 godina.

 

Ne zameram ljudima sto traze odgovore od mene, samo mi smesno, jer sam ja jednako zbunjena.

 

 

Edit: ponudicu ti parafraziran razgovor izmedju mog brata I zubara ovde, pre nekih 10 godina, tu negde. Moj brat je bio extremno frustriran:

 

Zubar: tvoje ime zvuci kao da si iz rusije, akcenat zvuci kao da si rus

Brat: ne, ja sam is ex-yu, ex-yu se granici sa ....

Zubar: da, to je lepo, cuo sam da je Moskva lepa

Brat: nemam pojma, nikad nisam bio u rusiji 

Zubar: ali zar to nije tu negde, cuo sam da je u Moskvi hladno, to je blizu?

 

Burazer vec iznerviran: nikad nisam bio u Rusiji, nemam pojma kako je tamo, to je daleko kao US 

 

Zubar: ali ja bih bas da znam kako je u Moskvi, ne razumem sto neces da mi kazes...

 

Kad me brat pozvao bio je bas iznerviran 

Bukvalno je bio hteo sam da uzmem neki uredjaj I nabodem ga, sta nije jasno da nemam pojma o rusiji?

 

Danas mi je malo jasnije, ali je jos uvek smesno

Edited March 18, 2022 by Angelia

[Милица]

9 hours ago, Eddard said:

Svaka mu čast.

 

Dakle, stručnjak za geopolitiku koliko i ja.

Strucnjak za geopolitiku koliko i ortoped za virusologiju 

[shonke]

Ovo Z ce da stane rame uz rame sa svastikom kako su krenuli.

Eno po beogradu fašisti već farbaju zidove tim slovom.

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk

[berti]

10 hours ago, K.Dot said:

Ne znam za vas ali meni je ok objasnjenje da je Putler poludeo i krenuo u rat. Streljace ga Rusi kad se sve ovo završi. 

Tesko da velile sile krecu u rat samo zbog necijeg ludila. Uvek je to samo dobro prouceni i proracunati interes. Ludilo moze samo da da dodatnu dimenziju koja se ogleda u besčašću, surovosti, odsustvu kompromisa, nepostovanju nekih normi...

Ludak je bio Milosevic i to totalni. Zbog vlastite pomahnitalosti nije shvatio da su njegovi ciljevi, ako je uopste znao sta hoce, apsolutno neostvarivi. Za razliku od njega velike sile skoro uvek ostvare ono sta zacrtaju.

[Eddard]

1 hour ago, Milica said:

Strucnjak za geopolitiku koliko i ortoped za virusologiju 

Tako je, bravo! Ako je tebi tako lakše da debele označiš kao neprijatelje čovečanstva. 
 

Spoiler

6 godina istog fakulteta ćemo da zaboravimo.
Jebote koliko si ti naporna.

 

[VladimirB]

40 minutes ago, berti said:

Tesko da velile sile krecu u rat samo zbog necijeg ludila. Uvek je to samo dobro prouceni i proracunati interes. Ludilo moze samo da da dodatnu dimenziju koja se ogleda u besčašću, surovosti, odsustvu kompromisa, nepostovanju nekih normi...

Ludak je bio Milosevic i to totalni. Zbog vlastite pomahnitalosti nije shvatio da su njegovi ciljevi, ako je uopste znao sta hoce, apsolutno neostvarivi. Za razliku od njega velike sile skoro uvek ostvare ono sta zacrtaju.

 

Nije bio ni ludak ni totalni ludak. 

 

Imao je narod uz sebe, ogromnu podršku za sve što je radio. 

[berti]

8 minutes ago, VladimirB said:

 

Nije bio ni ludak ni totalni ludak. 

 

Imao je narod uz sebe, ogromnu podršku za sve što je radio. 

Pa i ludaci cesto imaju podrsku

[Beonegro]

10 hours ago, ras kass said:

 

Herson aerodrom nakon ukrajinskog napada

Ovo je Grad/Gradovi, taman a taste of their own medicine

[Helena]

Ovakva količina licemerstva nije postojala nikad u istoriji čovečanstva.

Zelenski samo što ne plače kad moli za pomoć, USA prlament stoji i aplaudira, NATO izjavljuje da ne može da se meša, iako se meša slanjem oružja...zašto onda ne zatvore i nebo?

Pozivaju se na nekakvao međunarodno pravo-po kom međunarodnom pravu je Rusija napala???

 

Tačno imam u glavi karikaturu, da je Koraks uradi-nabildovani mamlaz od 120kg bije momčića od 15, 16 godina, a sa strane stoji masa ljudi, isto nabildovanih i zakićenih kojekakvim šmajserima,bazukama i slično...

Dečkić plače i moli za pomoć, i kažu da ne mogu da se mešaju, nego će sprečiti da mamlaz koji ga tuče dobije hranu,a oni će mu doturaju praćku...

 

I povrh svega naletim na ovu budalu sa ovakvim tvitom

 

 

 

[MeanMachine]

11 hours ago, Eddard said:

Svaka mu čast.

 

Dakle, stručnjak za geopolitiku koliko i ja.

 

 

Stratesko naoruzanje sto je profi "raketa lepotica" posao a ono jeste geopolitika.

 

 

I vrlo zanimljiva stvar u vezi istog se desila nesto pre razmestanja ruskih trupa oko Ukrajine, o cemu je profa pricao u drugom podcastu. Konkretno u Nemackoj 2023 a mozda i 2022 ce biti obnovljena americka jedinica sa nuklearnim raketama i bice razmestena raketa koja je znatno opasnija od Pershing 2 zbog kog smo 1983 bili najblizi nuklearnom ratu u istoriji, kazu da Reganu nije bilo dobro kad je citao izvestaje obavestajaca sta se desavalo u SSSR zbog Able Archer vojne vezbe.

 

 

 

[freethrow]

Mislim da je dosta zavodljivo i privlačno etiketirati čimbenike poput Putina kao ludake i uopšte osobe koje deluju mimo ratia, ali da to jednostavno nije dovoljno objašnjenje.

 

@Helena

Quote

 

“I can only see two reasons [for proposing this]: They have no idea what they’re talking about or they’re posturing,” says Robert Farley, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky who studies airpower.

Moreover, there is no kind of no-fly zone — limited or otherwise — that would address the humanitarian crisis motivating such calls. Russia’s primary method of bombarding civilian-populated areas in this war has been artillery, not aircraft — which means that a Western intervention focused on shooting down planes would either prove ineffective or else escalate to something even more dangerous.

But the calls for a no-fly zone keep coming anyway: relics from prior wars waged under unquestioned American supremacy, unburdened by the prospect of great-power war and nuclear escalation.

 

In Ukraine, that would mean the US and its NATO allies sending in jets to patrol Ukraine’s skies — and being willing to shoot down any Russian planes that enter protected airspace. Since Russian planes are flying combat missions in Ukraine and show no signs of stopping, any no-fly zone puts us on a direct path to a shooting war between the world’s largest nuclear powers.

 

Unless NATO pilots wanted to fly with the constant fear of being shot down, they would need to take those out. Attacking Russian territory, like shooting down their planes, is, of course, an act of war on Russia.

 

Nije realno.

 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22967674/russia-ukraine-no-fly-zone-limited-nuclear-war

 

 

[erwin]

 

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf

Edited March 18, 2022 by erwin

[Eddard]

Znači gladni će biti još gladniji. Rat i kriza uvek najviše pogađaju najsiromašnije. 

 

To je ono što i ljudi u Srbiji ne razumeju pa se naslađuju time što će Nemačka "da propadne", a ne shvataju da će prosečan Nemac ovo lakše da preživi nego prosečan Srbin. Neće otići ove godine na Malle, nego na Ostsee, ili nigde, neće kupiti ove godine novi auto već za 2-3, neće kupiti novi telefon, neće spremiti svake nedelje Apfelstrudel, već jednom mesečno, deliće auto sa kolegom umesto da vozi sam, ili će ići vozom/biciklom... Itd... Ako neko zna da se stisne i uštedi, to je Nemac. A prosečan Srbin neće imati leba detetu da da koliko god se stisne... Ali bitno je da je kriza u Nemačkoj strašna, a AV prikazuje rezerve graška. 

[freethrow]

Nije samo to tužno. Dva događaja od juče. Prvo koleginica koja je u fazonu, ničim izazvana, na neke naše komentare o užasima u Ukrajini - pa šta se uzbuđujete, nisu se ni Ukrajinci potresali kad su nas rokali... Drugo, odem u pekaru, tamo dva lika, Rusi, i pričaju nešto između sebe. Prodavačice provalile da su Rusi i krenule da vrište jeeeee Rusija Srbija ideeeemo braćoooo! A ovi, deluju kao normalni likovi, pocrveneli, neprijatno im.

[Constantin]

.....

[Darth Bane]

2 hours ago, shonke said:

Eno po beogradu fašisti već farbaju zidove tim slovom.

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk
 

Eto ti ga sad. U Beogradu ima fasista a u Ukrajini ih nema?!!??

Drugo, ni ovde ni u svetskim medijima uopste nema sucuti prema ruskim izbeglicama iz Donbasa i Luganjska i za stradanja tih ljudi tamo?? I oni su ljudi, iako su Rusi! Samo se pominju Ukrajinci pa Ukrajinci. 

[erwin]

 

[sasa965]

5 hours ago, Angelia said:

Kad me brat pozvao bio je bas iznerviran 

Bukvalno je bio hteo sam da uzmem neki uredjaj I nabodem ga, sta nije jasno da nemam pojma o rusiji?

Demonstracija ljudske prirode.

46 minutes ago, Eddard said:

a ne shvataju da će prosečan Nemac ovo lakše da preživi nego prosečan Srbin. Neće otići ove godine na Malle, nego na Ostsee, ili nigde, neće kupiti ove godine novi auto već za 2-3, neće kupiti novi telefon, neće spremiti svake nedelje Apfelstrudel, već jednom mesečno, deliće auto sa kolegom umesto da vozi sam, ili će ići vozom/biciklom... Itd... Ako neko zna da se stisne i uštedi, to je Nemac.

Važi li to i za generaciju 2000 i mlađe?

Jasno je da stariji pamte i loša vremena i znaju da štede , šta je sa mladima?

[Beonegro]

46 minutes ago, erwin said:

 

https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/osginf2022d1_en.pdf

Ne samo što će se uskoro osjetiti nestašica, već će se nestašica osjetiti tokom ramazanskog posta (u Sjevernoj Africi se tokom posta noću tradicionalno jedu kolači, troše se ogromne količine brašna), što će biti vrlo, vrlo zajebano, moglo bi biti nemira u tim zemljama, prvenstveno u Tunisu, koji je ekonomski već u totalnom kanalu.

Nedostaju podaci za Alžir i Nigeriju, a oni su takođe u top 10 uvoznika pšenice na svijetu.

 

Problem nije samo u žitu, puno zemalja vještačko đubrivo kupuje iz Rusije, tako da bi i domaća proizvodnja mogla da bude pogođena. Tu doduše valjda postoji alternativa (iskreno pojma nemam u kojoj mjeri mogu da povećaju proizvodnju u kratkom roku), marokanski OCP je najveći proizvođač fosfatnih đubriva na svijetu.