Rat u Ukrajini

[Tomiprunet]

 
Dakle, sve što američki političari od početka vremena do kraja univerzuma rade je da rovare svuda po svetu, na svačiju štetu i u svoju ekskluzivnu korist? [emoji846]
Svi ostali na svetu su nevini Hobiti koje eto Amerika zavadi i posla jedne na druge?
I samim tim Hobiti nisu ni za šta krivi jer je za sve kriva Amerika, pa Hobiti mogu da rade šta hoće jer su nevini unapred? 
Svet će spasiti lučonoše civilizovanosti, kao što su Indija Kina Rusija i štatijaznam ko su nam braća trenutno?
 
A sa ozbiljne strane, zašto bi USA odgovarala kriza u Evropi? 
 

Upravo to. Hvala na postu. 100% tačno od A do Š

[McLeod]

Rat u Jugoslaviji - Amerika kriva. 9/11 - Amerika kriva. Situacija na BI - Amerika kriva. Rusija napala Ukrajinu - Amerika kriva. Nema veze sto u nekim sukobima nije ni ucestvovala ali sigurno je za sve kriva, huskaju jedni na druge, a sta ce deca, nezrelo to, pa padaju na iste fore 30 godina.

[ras kass]

 

[VladimirB]

12 minutes ago, McLeod said:

Rat u Jugoslaviji - Amerika kriva. 9/11 - Amerika kriva. Situacija na BI - Amerika kriva. Rusija napala Ukrajinu - Amerika kriva. Nema veze sto u nekim sukobima nije ni ucestvovala ali sigurno je za sve kriva, huskaju jedni na druge, a sta ce deca, nezrelo to, pa padaju na iste fore 30 godina.

 

I onda, u nekoj mračnoj sobi duboko ispod Pentagona, ispunjenoj dimom cigara, debeli američki generali i dijabolični američki predsednik se grohotom smeju dok pripremaju oružje za izvoz tim naivnim divljacima koji padaju na fore već decenijama. Kao da se avioni i rakete i tenkovi i... spakuju k'o hleb u kesu i pošalju na front. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by VladimirB

[Darth Bane]

49 minutes ago, VladimirB said:

 

Dakle, sve što američki političari od početka vremena do kraja univerzuma rade je da rovare svuda po svetu, na svačiju štetu i u svoju ekskluzivnu korist? 🙂

Svi ostali na svetu su nevini Hobiti koje eto Amerika zavadi i posla jedne na druge?

I samim tim Hobiti nisu ni za šta krivi jer je za sve kriva Amerika, pa Hobiti mogu da rade šta hoće jer su nevini unapred? 

Svet će spasiti lučonoše civilizovanosti, kao što su Indija Kina Rusija i štatijaznam ko su nam braća trenutno?

 

A sa ozbiljne strane, zašto bi USA odgovarala kriza u Evropi? 

 

Pa evo, za pocetak: da preuzmu trziste gasa od Rusije. Umesto ruskog gasa Evropa ce uvoziti americki LNG 2x skuplji. 

A Rusija ce svoj gas izvoziti azijskim trzistima, pre svega Kini. 

 

[erwin]

 

[mladenvzz]

...početkom rata Zelenski je tražio od Izraela da preuzme neku posredničku ulogu.Vjerojatno kreće neka diplomatska igra

[erwin]

 

[VladimirB]

26 minutes ago, Darth Bane said:

Pa evo, za pocetak: da preuzmu trziste gasa od Rusije. Umesto ruskog gasa Evropa ce uvoziti americki LNG 2x skuplji. 

A Rusija ce svoj gas izvoziti azijskim trzistima, pre svega Kini. 

 

 

Dakle, osvajanjem lažne države Ukrajine plemenita Rusija zapravo brani energetsku nezavisnost slabe i nedorasle Evrope od mrske neoliberalne USA nafta/gas industrije, dok tupavi Evropljani nemaju pojma šta se dešava oko njih i Rusi rade za dobro tih Evropljana?

 

Sada je sve jasno, 1956. i 1968. su zapravo odbranjeni budući gasovodi u Evropi. A Mađare i Čehe su tih godina Amerikanci probali da preusmere na svoj gas, i samo su Amerikanci krivi za te ruske intervencije. To!

Edited March 6, 2022 by VladimirB

[erwin]

Pojavila se navodna ispovest nekog lika iz FSB-a:

https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327?__cft__[0]=AZVEWNSUhtxII8qElhlRWkvWnOeaTuw9BYjGvYez8SRV_7bRGS89OJwAOA62FT9kDgm6ZNcMTY0V58N0UytrzhUfY9IBSDun3HBbVi4vIEveGfXGnhDTQf1TNyqvU1TFWKo&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

 

Direktor Bellingcata tvrdi da je verovatno autentična.

 

 

 

 

Prevod s komentarima u zagradi:

Quote

Igor Sushko
7h • 69 tweets • 10 min read
My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects. 
I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
"I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world. 
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable as Russia and Ukraine are main producers of wheat. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.) 
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation (Ukraine invasion), but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports. 
All of these political consultants and politicians and the powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone. 
For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack on Russia (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – 
So you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox for some bureaucrat, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, 
otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked. 
But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash. We have no answer to the sanctions because of this. No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions. 
It’s the flipside consequence of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it? 
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We (FSB) were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians claimed to having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. 
Kadyrov's squad was absolutely demolished before they even had a chance to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely. 
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, 
then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? 
If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If Zelensky signs, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him. ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. 
Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? 
If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave. 
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. 
There’s a rule - if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist. 
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons:
1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social. 
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. 
Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything. 
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions. (!!) 
They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. 
But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000 Russian soldiers killed. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR. 
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us. 
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen (Ukraine invasion) except only if we were to be attacked first. 
Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky in Ukraine without ever considering invading Ukraine. 
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. 
Recall the invasion of Mosul. It’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new. To siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years. Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time 
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. 
By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides (for vs against war), simply because current tension (in Russia) is unsustainable. 
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia). 
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed. The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything. 
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it. (BREAK FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE POSTING TRANSLATION IN A BIT) 
(THIS UPCOMING 2nd HALF IS ARGUABLY MORE INTERESTING AND ENDS WITH A PLEASANT SURPRISE)
"100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. 
Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans and started doing such things... 
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative. 
The enemy (Ukraine) is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world. 
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the West's attention 
and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria. 
This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems. As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away. 
Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless. 
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had we received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed. 
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated. 
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. 
And what if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika. 
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike (in Ukraine)? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West). 
We are plowing to create a scenario to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. 
They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret 
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid. 
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. 
As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer. 
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him. 
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of supplies, and then ridiculous heat will come…. 
Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please note – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis. 
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes it feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before. 
With regards to prisons – it will get worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. 
We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon. 
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon. And this is a rather brief overview of the current events. 
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people involved in the process and there is no single “red” button. 
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. 
Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s murky as to who controls what and how, but always files reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems. 
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years. 
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. 
Whether it’s due to Putin's fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If Putin is scared for the most trusted people to be near him, then how could he possibly choose to destroy himself and those dearest to him? ( END OF TRANSLATION ) 
ADDENDUM: I wrote the following thread on March 1st - my opinion of the situation.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1498716381759475715

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

[Kimmi]

Pozdrav svima, nisam se uključivao, mada sam vas na preskoke čitao. Previše je postova, pa onda prelistam što stignem. Pisao sam samo na topicu o Crnoj Gori, jer tu i živim.

 

Evo da se uključim sa ovim štivom, može biti interesantno...

 

https://fejsbucenje.com/2022/03/01/nova-ruska-politicka-dogma-konstruktivna-destrukcija-profesora-karaganova/

 

Kod nas u CG Putinofili uglavnom relativizuju agresiju pričom kako Rusija želi da spriječi širenje NATO pakta.

 

Neko stvarno misli da je pravi razlog invazije kopnenim trupama na Ukrajinu to što bi potencijalnim, a suštinski nemogućim, ulaskom Ukrajine u NATO bila ugrožena ruska bezbjednost?

 

Pa će to da riješe na način da su umjesto sa sadašnjih 3+1 granične NATO države (ovo 1 se odnosi na Ukrajinu koja NIKADA ne bi bila primljena u NATO sa spornim dijelom svoje teritorije - Krim je obavio taj posao), tako što će da okupiraju Ukrajinu i izaći će na granice nove 4 države NATO članice? Plus se sa Poljacima ali nikako ne mirišu zbog zločina iz WWII i ponašanja Rusije za vrijeme gvozdene zavjese. Ne zaboravite da je gvozdena zavjesa pala svega 4-5 godina prije sranja u exyu.

 

Ciljevi i razlozi su razni...

 

Mislim da je cilj teritorijalna ekspanzija ili makar stvaranje marionetske države poput BLR. Ali to nije jedini. Korišćenje sile jer mu se može i jer je jači, a ima faktor odvraćanja u vidu nuklearnog oružja, može biti razlog. Putin je kazao da su Ukrajinci ispranog mozga, zalutali su šta li pa da ih vrati u rusko stado. Ođe već primjećujemo nacional-šovinističke pobude. Ukrajinci su u stvari Rusi i ta priča. Mislite da u odnosima između bivših SSSR republika nema nerazjašnjenih odnosa, zločina, nepravdi i "istorijskih prava". Unutrašnja politika i povoljni odjek na rejting u godini izbora je možda jedan od motiva/razloga. Jeste to otvorena diktatura/kleptokratija, ali autokrate vole da budu voljene. Kao da su ex-sssr države operisane od nacionalizama raznih, a gori su no mi na Balkanu.

 

Najvjerovatnije je u pitanju kombinacija više faktora.

 

Koji god da je razlog, opravdanja su nebitna i uvijek ih ko napada ima, radi se o tome da je jedan mnogo veći komšija izvršio vojnu invaziju na manjeg komšiju, nezavisnu državu deceniju i više nego što je Crna Gora nezavisna država.

 

Slabo ko pominje sporazum iz devedesetih na osnovu kog je Ukrajina svo nuklearno naoružanje predala Rusiji (a u Ukrajini ga je bilo gomila jer su bili bliži NATO paktu i mrskom zapadu za vrijeme SSSRa), a Rusija je zauzvrat garantovala teritorijalnu cjelovitost Ukrajine, Budapest Memorandum 1994. To je Rusija prekršila 2014. i prošlo joj je, a ovo sad je tek totalno kršenje svega, a ne garancija nezavisnosti i nepovredivosti granica koje su dali.

 

Raspad SSSRa i EX-YU su u mnogome slični. Samo je tamo jedna sila do zuba nuklearno i vojno opremljena, a ostale sve smiješne u proporcijama. Ođe smo makar koliko toliko proporcionalni i niko nema ni primać toliku prevagu u smislu veličine, brojnosti i snage u svoju korist, plus smo koliko toliko pod šapom Zapada, što je vjerujte mi dobro za sve nas na Balkanu, jer viđite samo koliko smo bistri i kakvi svi likovi kod nas mogu da dobiju poluge moći.

 

U Ukrajini je stradalo 4-5 miliona ljudi od gladi za vrijeme SSSRa...

 

Imaju i oni svoje gadne priče iz prošlosti i svježije rane od onih što mi imamo iz WWI i WWII, pa viđite kako se dijelimo nesrećnici.

 

Mi je zovemo gvozdena zavjesa, ali u dostini država koje su bile pod kontrolom zvanične Moskve je zovu ruska čizma.

 

Najgore od svega je što ni Ukrajinci ni Rusi ne žive sjajno. Da, živi manji dio stanovništva veoma dobro, ali ogromna većina je čak i za naš prosjek sirotinja, a viđite mi kakvi smo.

 

I na kraju moram apostrofirati jedan apsurd. Desno orjentisani Srbi u CG, a vidim da je tako i u Srbiji, daju prilično glasnu podršku Rusiji. Ni da su sve potomci golootočana, a ne u isto vrijeme propagatori jednog drugog pokreta iz WWII koji je bio itekako prozapadno orjentisan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

[Darth Bane]

12 minutes ago, VladimirB said:

 

Dakle, osvajanjem Ukrajine Rusija zapravo brani energetsku nezavisnost Evrope od mrske USA nafta/gas industrije, dok tupavi Evropljani nemaju pojma šta se dešava oko njih i Rusi rade za dobro tih Evropljana?

 

Sada je sve jasno, 1956. i 1968. su zapravo odbranjeni budući gasovodi u Evropi. A Mađare i Čehe su tih godina Amerikanci probali da preusmere na svoj gas. To!

Nemoj ucitavati. Ovo gore sto si napisao to ja nisam rekao.

Ali jeli bilo I ranije pritisaka u vezi sa Severnim tokom 2?!

[urosg3]

@Kimmi uz sve uvažavanje prof Karaganova citiram:
 

Quote

Operacija u Ukrajini će trajati oko 12 dana

ovde je u mom svetonazoru stekao kredibilitet kao Predrag Kon. Napisati ovako nešto je besmisleno. Eventualno da je typo da je mislio na 12 meseci pa bi i onda bilo preoptimistički.

[erwin]

34 minutes ago, erwin said:

Pojavila se navodna ispovest nekog lika iz FSB-a:

 

Ne deluje mi autentično, posebno mi je problematičan ovaj zaključak na kraju o verovatnoći upotrebe nuklearnog naoružanja, pošto izgleda kao da se pravi atmosfera da Zapad uđe u rat. 

[McLeod]

Ni meni ali bilo bi lepo da jeste. Mada sigurno su mnoge stvari iz "ispovesti" tacne, tu nema neke sumnje.

[shonke]

Pa evo, za pocetak: da preuzmu trziste gasa od Rusije. Umesto ruskog gasa Evropa ce uvoziti americki LNG 2x skuplji. 
A Rusija ce svoj gas izvoziti azijskim trzistima, pre svega Kini. 
 

A kako će ekonomski propala Evropa da plaća taj 2x skuplji gas kad nema para i kad su fabrike propale itd?

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk

[Darko]

1 hour ago, Beonegro said:

Da li bi bio ljubazan da objasniš kako će SAD imati korist od toga što će im je najveći trgovinski partner i kupac biti u ekomoskoj krizi?

Znam da pitanje nije meni namenjemo, ali pretpostavljam da treba naći zamenu za proizvode koje dolaze iz Rusije. Drugo, pošto se sada sa Rusijom ne trguje, za mnoge proizvode se smanjila potražnja, što znači da će ti proizvodi morati na popust da bi se prodali (supply/demand). Treće, ako će Evropska preduzeća da imaju veći trošak proizvodnje zbog skoka cene energetike koja dolazi od Rusije, proizvodi iz drugih zemalja postaju privlačniji. Da ne bude zabune, ne mislim da je sve baš tako prosto. Kao što si i sam rekao, ako ti je najveći trgovinski partner i kupac u ekonomskoj krizi, i ti ćeš da imaš neki gubitak. 

 

Zato se i manje više slažem se sa tobom, svi gube ovim ratom, bar na kratke staze. Na duže staze može biti koristi za Ameriku i Aziju (veća potražnja za njihovim proizvodima zbog problema u Evropi, povećanje market share, pošto će Evropa biti u problemima). Ali ubedljivo najviše gube Rusi i Ukrajinci, tim redosledom (mada je moguće da su najveći gubitnici upravo Rusi u nekim scenarijama). Ne verujem da će Putin dozvoliti da izgubi ovaj rat i ne bi me čudilo da se desi neki balkanski scenario, žestoke vojne akcije pa i etničko/političko čišćenje. Zato mislim da se Ukrajincima crno piše, pošto su očigledno ostavljeni na cedilu. Ne verujem da je trenutna logistička pomoć dovoljna da se pobedi Ruska armija, koliko god da je nesposobna (u šta imam sumnje). Jedini dobitak za Ukrajinu: ako uspeju da prebrode okupaciju Rusije i Putin ih napusti jer ne može da izdrži svu tu štetu. To bi valjda značilo kraj uticaja Kremlina i početak Evropske integracije Ukrajine, ali koliko će žrtava za to biti potrebno i da li je to uopšte moguće, veliko je pitanje. Kao što navedoh gore, Putin ovo može lako eskalirati i proterati protivnike. 

[McCarthy]

 

 

 

[Kronostime]

 

[erwin]

 

 

Zadnja partija u finskoj vlasti koja se protivila članstvu u Natou sad spominje referendum o tome. Javno mnjenje je po zadnjim anketama većinski za.

 

 

 

[Pletilja]

14 hours ago, Perkos2 said:

Iskustvo kaze da nije baš sjajno kad Nemačka krene da vojno jača, mislim da to i Ameri odlično znaju.

Dobro se secam veceri kada je eksplodirala vest da je pao Berlinski zid, moja prva reakcija je bila radost, od oca sam bila dobro upucena u celu tu pricu a kao pobornik slobode, jednakosti i bratstva, zaista sam bila ponosna na demokratske tokove.....i tako to. Nije proslo mnogo minuta i sledila me je misao da nikad na dobro ne izadje kad je Nemacka cela....oduvali smo XX vek (onu njegovu bolju, drugu polovinu) kao da ga nije ni bilo....

[ras kass]

Sve se vise spominje dugotrajni rat, koji ce trajati mesecima a mozda i godinama.

[Devil In My Pants]

Ruske majke ce doci glave Frodu Baginsu!!

[Hamilton]

Jaoj kako dan lepo pocne kad vidim da je jos neko novi opalio po dandari orangutane. 

BRAVO VISA BRAVO MASTER! Civilizacija. 

[sasa965]

49 minutes ago, Beonegro said:

Da li bi bio ljubazan da objasniš kako će SAD imati korist od toga što će im je najveći trgovinski partner i kupac biti u ekomoskoj krizi?

  Da probam ja .

Ko će imati koristi u Americi na  , primer vojno industrijski kompleks.Samo Nemačka kupuje oružje za 100  milijardi plus ostale članiceNATO.

Onda ide obnavljanje zaliha i u samoj Americi. Koliko će tu novca biti ulupano sam bog zna. Ukupno , jabuka će se prodavati malo manje a  puške malo više.

Nafta je na korak od 150 dolara i ako se ovaj đžumbus ne smiri brzo za osam do deset meseci kreće recesija.

Čak i da se sve smiri  kriza je  neminovna  , samo što izgleda da će početi mnogo ranije nego što se očekivalo.

Niko neće ostati pošteđen.

 

Ako pođemo od pretpostavke da je Američka ekonomija robusna zašto su kamatne stope blizu nule?

Pre će bili da je ekonomski ciklus pri kraju , na tu temu je pisao i govorio Rej Dalio 2019 . Iskreno preporučujem .

 

Recesija je izvesna i suštinski potrebna .Povremeno je  potrebno pročistiti ekonomiju.Predugo je novac jeftin namnožile su se zombi kompanije.

Ono što nije dobro je vrlo mali manevarski prostor za FED. Predhodna prilika je propala 2018 kada su odustali na pola puta.Kovid je samo dodao ulje na vatru.

Podizaće kamatne stope ali koliko i koliko brzo.Da li će inflacija biti obuzdana?

Kada se na takvu situaciju doda diktatura sa socijalnih mreža i obaveza političara da deluju od danas za danas. Prostor za 

ozbiljnije delovanje i donošenje nepopularnih odluka postaje  minoran.

 

 

Kada kamen recesije krene da valja nizbrdo Amerika će biti najmanje ružna  kandidatkinja u izboru za miss.Sve druge ekonomije će biti mnogo lošije.

To neće biti posebno utešno jer sledeća ekonomska kriza širom otvara vrata za socijalizam u USA.

Nemoguće , moguće sasvim.

Demokratska partija je širom otvorila vrata za socijalističke ideje.Tu povratka teško da će biti.

2000 godine je bilo teško zamisliti da Afroamerikanac bude predsednik Amerike.Videli smo da se desilo.

Drugarica Aleksandrija buduća predsednica ? Nemoguće ?

Moguće još kako .