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[Beonegro]

Demonstracije jesu masovne, ali je problem što ljudi u Alžiru nisu baš sigurni oko toga šta im je cilj. Demonstriraju zato što su nezadovoljni ekonomskom situacijom, ali ne znaju šta bi to promijenili da im bude bolje, uz izuzetak borbe protiv korupcije, što je ipak samo mali dio odgovora na probleme sa kojima se suočava Alžir.

 

[A sad]

4 minutes ago, Beonegro said:

Demonstracije jesu masovne, ali je problem što ljudi u Alžiru nisu baš sigurni oko toga šta im je cilj. Demonstriraju zato što su nezadovoljni ekonomskom situacijom, ali ne znaju šta bi to promijenili da im bude bolje, uz izuzetak borbe protiv korupcije, što je ipak samo mali dio odgovora na probleme sa kojima se suočava Alžir.

 

 

Pa dobro to I jeste normalno u svim pretpolitickim drustvima. Nije za ocekivati da masa na demonstracijama u Alziru "ponudi" jedan moderan korak u napred. Ono sto oni traze pre svega je ono sto si ti napomenuo, borbu protiv korupcije, po meni je upravo sistemska korupcija kljucan problem za razvoj jednog drustva, kako u njegovom ekonomskom, tako I u politickom smislu. Druga stvar je da se ne izvrse kozmeticke promene, vec da se vladajuca elita potpuno razvlasti. Ta upornost da se do toga dodje je zaista zadivljujuca I zbog toga imaju moje postovanje. To je drugi I veoma bitan korak da se krene napred. Oko ostalih stvari ne postoji konsenzus I jasan put sta dalje, ali jbg neki minimum zajednickih intresa su pronasli.

 

Da li to znaci da su razvojni put I demokratija sigurni? Ne, naravno da ne. Za to treba da prodju godine borbi I reforme, mozda cak I neki koraci u nazad na nekim poljima. Da li ce to otvoriti vrata islamistickim pokretima da dodju blizu vlasti ili cak da je preuzmu? Hoce I to ce se desiti, ali bez toga se ne moze ici dalje. Pogresno je na arapska drustva gledati iz evrocentricnog ugla I ocekivati da ce posle rusenja diktatora zavladati liberalne demokrate. Nece, jer takvih ima jako malo u tim drustvima, a uticaj im je jos manji. Sa druge strane razni "sekularni" diktatori su dezavuisali ideju sekularne drzave za duze vreme. Bice tu jos svega I svacega, ali taj prvi korak je najbitniji, rusenje diktatora, deinstaliranje vladajuce elite I borba protiv korupcije. To stvara preduslove za stvaranje politickog drustva u kojem se moze razvijati politicka misao I demokratski sistem. 

Zato ne treba imati prevelika ocekivanja od promena nastalih ovim putem u pretpolitickim drustvima. Da se uspostavi sistem koji ima neke elementarne osnove demokratskog sistema I da vlast postane smenjiva je veliki uspeh I vazan prvi korak. Tunis je uspesan primer svega toga, iako I dalje ima velikih problema I jako je daleko od razvijenih demokratskih drustava. 

[Beonegro]

On 12/15/2019 at 9:02 PM, A sad said:

 

Pa dobro to I jeste normalno u svim pretpolitickim drustvima. Nije za ocekivati da masa na demonstracijama u Alziru "ponudi" jedan moderan korak u napred. Ono sto oni traze pre svega je ono sto si ti napomenuo, borbu protiv korupcije, po meni je upravo sistemska korupcija kljucan problem za razvoj jednog drustva, kako u njegovom ekonomskom, tako I u politickom smislu. Druga stvar je da se ne izvrse kozmeticke promene, vec da se vladajuca elita potpuno razvlasti. Ta upornost da se do toga dodje je zaista zadivljujuca I zbog toga imaju moje postovanje. To je drugi I veoma bitan korak da se krene napred. Oko ostalih stvari ne postoji konsenzus I jasan put sta dalje, ali jbg neki minimum zajednickih intresa su pronasli.

 

Da li to znaci da su razvojni put I demokratija sigurni? Ne, naravno da ne. Za to treba da prodju godine borbi I reforme, mozda cak I neki koraci u nazad na nekim poljima. Da li ce to otvoriti vrata islamistickim pokretima da dodju blizu vlasti ili cak da je preuzmu? Hoce I to ce se desiti, ali bez toga se ne moze ici dalje. Pogresno je na arapska drustva gledati iz evrocentricnog ugla I ocekivati da ce posle rusenja diktatora zavladati liberalne demokrate. Nece, jer takvih ima jako malo u tim drustvima, a uticaj im je jos manji. Sa druge strane razni "sekularni" diktatori su dezavuisali ideju sekularne drzave za duze vreme. Bice tu jos svega I svacega, ali taj prvi korak je najbitniji, rusenje diktatora, deinstaliranje vladajuce elite I borba protiv korupcije. To stvara preduslove za stvaranje politickog drustva u kojem se moze razvijati politicka misao I demokratski sistem. 

Zato ne treba imati prevelika ocekivanja od promena nastalih ovim putem u pretpolitickim drustvima. Da se uspostavi sistem koji ima neke elementarne osnove demokratskog sistema I da vlast postane smenjiva je veliki uspeh I vazan prvi korak. Tunis je uspesan primer svega toga, iako I dalje ima velikih problema I jako je daleko od razvijenih demokratskih drustava. 

Iza svega toga ima jedna druga problematika. Ma koliko je hvale vrijedno to kako se pokret (hirak) odrzava i artikulise u Alziru, ja mislim da je za to drustvo prekasno, cak i u teoretskoj situaciji da se vojska povuce iz politike i da izglasaju legitimnu vladu. Ovo kazem zato sto, kao prvo, nisam siguran da postoji konsenzus u pokretu oko toga da se treba odreci ogromnih subvencija koje Alzirci trenutno dobijaju od svoje drzave, a kao drugo, zato sto mi djeluje da je, cak i kada bi postojao takav konsenzus, prekasno da se udje u ozbiljne reforme bez velikih lomova u drustvu koje sve manje proizvodi i sve vise trosi i koje je na granici implozije zbog demografskih trendova (Alzir svake godine dobije milion novih stanovnika). Mislim da ce im trebati mnogo pameti i srece da u narednim godinama izbjegnu strasne stvari. 

 

Trivia: tradicionalni takmaci u regionu Marokanci su prezadovoljni rezultatom predsjednickih izbora u Alziru, jer je na dijalektu kojim oni govore Tebun rijec za zenski polni organ 😄 

EDIT: slicna situacija kao sa Sebastianom Kurzom kod nas

Edited December 20, 2019 by Beonegro

[mare80]

1 hour ago, Beonegro said:

Tebun

Tabun... 😄

[Beonegro]

Kakav obrt sa krepanijem Gaid Salaha 😬

[Drug Crni]

Zar Alzir nije vec bio zahvacen "Arapskim prolecem" 2010?

[A sad]

On 12/25/2019 at 3:07 PM, Beonegro said:

Kakav obrt sa krepanijem Gaid Salaha 😬

 

Sve pripremio da bude apsolutni vladar, ali nije dala srcka. Samo da ne ozivi za dve-tri nedelje kao Haftar. 🙂

 

On 12/25/2019 at 3:09 PM, Crni Bombarder said:

Zar Alzir nije vec bio zahvacen "Arapskim prolecem" 2010?

 

Bilo je nekih demonstracija, ali nista ozbiljno kao ovo sada. 

[Drug Crni]

34 minutes ago, A sad said:

Bilo je nekih demonstracija, ali nista ozbiljno kao ovo sada. 

O promenama u Tunisu znam samo povrsno,dok o istoriji politickih (pa i ekonomskih) institucija Egipta,kao genezi revolucionarnih promena i zahteva na trgu Tahir u Kairu,vec znam prilicno. 

No,Alzir mi je potpuna nepoznanica.

[Plavi Golub]

WEEKEND ESSAY

The inside story of Carlos Ghosn’s great escape

How months of planning by a team of experts in hostage extraction allowed the Nissan chief to flee justice packed in a concert equipment box. Nick Kostov, David Gauthier-Villars, Sam Schechner and Miho Inada report

new

Carlos Ghosn, pictured with his wife, Carole, gave Japanese surveillance the slip and escaped to Lebanon with the help of up to 15 security specialistsDOMINIQUE CHARRIAU/GETTY IMAGES - WIREIMAGE

The Times, January 10 2020, 5:00pm

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After months of planning and millions of dollars in costs, Carlos Ghosn climbed into a large black case with holes drilled in the bottom. He had just travelled 300 miles by train from his court-approved home in Tokyo to Osaka. It was Sunday evening, December 29, the moment of truth in a plan so audacious that some of its own organisers worried it wouldn’t work. A team of private security experts hired to spirit Mr Ghosn out of Japan hadn’t done a dry run of their scheme to sneak the box containing the former Renault-Nissan executive past airport security, according to a person familiar with the plot. That is standard procedure for such a high-stakes smuggling operation. They had cased the airport only twice before, including that morning. “It’s impossible,” one team member had said during the planning.

Mr Ghosn’s decision to jump bail in Japan set in motion a 23-hour international caper with little precedent. The plot involved advance teams that scoped out vulnerable airports and a pre-dawn plane transfer on the tarmac of a nearly deserted airport in Istanbul. That drizzly evening, two people accompanied the wheeled box — which is typically used to transport concert equipment — through the private-jet lounge of Osaka’s Kansai International Airport, according to an account provided by Japanese authorities. The team passed the wood-panelled entrance of the lounge, called Tamayura, or “brief moment,” down a hallway and around a pair of crescent-shaped cream-coloured sofas to the security checkpoint.

The case containing Mr Ghosn made it past the checkpoint unexamined — it was too large to fit in the lounge’s x-ray machine and no one checked it by hand either, according to the source. The box was then loaded into the cabin of a 13-passenger Bombardier Global Express jet through the rear cargo door. A decoy box, this one actually filled with audio equipment, was also wedged inside the cabin. The plane took off a short time later, flight records show.

This account of Mr Ghosn’s escape was compiled from interviews with people familiar with its planning and execution, with people knowledgeable about an unfolding inquiry in Turkey and from briefings made by authorities to reporters in Japan.

Mr Ghosn had been facing a trial that was supposed to kick off later this year. Prosecutors had charged him with financial crimes including hiding tens of millions of dollars in deferred compensation and misappropriating funds belonging to Nissan.

The businessman denied the charges and posted bail of more than £10 million to remain free, living in a video-monitored home with tight restrictions over who he could see. He assembled an international team of lawyers to defend him in court. In the end, though, he put his faith in a different team — a group of about a dozen operatives, including at least one with experience extracting hostages from war-zone confinement.

Mr Ghosn has said he arranged his exit from Japan by himself. But this account suggests he enlisted a larger cast of characters. Collaborators started laying the groundwork in the spring, not long after he was released on bail for the second time in April. Associates had considered how to get him out of Japan to a country where he might be able to clear his name more easily. People close to Mr Ghosn began contacting former soldiers and spies to find specialists willing to take on the task.

By the end of July a security team that would eventually expand to ten to 15 people of different nationalities began planning in earnest. The team was divided into various work streams, each separated from the others so that individuals on one assignment didn’t know what others were doing.

Among the team, according to people working on the Japanese and Turkish inquiries, was Michael Taylor, 59, an ex-special forces soldier known for his track record of rescuing hostage victims in collaboration with the US State Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation. Square-jawed, with thick salt-and-pepper hair and a dimpled smile, Mr Taylor is an Arabic speaker with deep connections to Lebanon, where he met his wife when deployed as a Green Beret in the 1980s.

The New York Times hired Mr Taylor’s former company to help rescue reporter David Rohde from Taliban captivity in Afghanistan in 2009. Mr Taylor more recently served time in am American prison after pleading guilty to two charges stemming from a federal bid-rigging investigation.

Also part of the team, according to those familiar with the investigations, were: George-Antoine Zayek, a Lebanese-born US citizen who had worked with Mr Taylor over more than a decade. Mr Zayek, a member of the Lebanese Christian community like Mr Ghosn, had been injured fighting in Lebanon in the 1970s and later worked in private security with American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, according to relatives in Lebanon. The two were identified by Turkish authorities as being aboard the jet that flew Mr Ghosn out of Japan.

Dubai became one of the team’s forward staging areas. Mr Taylor visited the emirate eight times in the six months leading up to the operation, while Mr Zayek visited four times in the final three months. Sometimes the two men were together and sometimes separate, according to Dubai records viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Over the course of more than 20 trips to Japan, operatives scoped out more than ten airports or other ports from which Mr Ghosn could potentially leave the country. The extraction team seriously pursued other options besides airports, including smuggling Mr Ghosn out of Japan by boat. The overall budget for the operation was “in the millions” of dollars.

To communicate with each other and Mr Ghosn, the organisers often used human messengers. That sidestepped Japanese officials’ restrictions on Mr Ghosn’s internet use; he was barred from using a smartphone so carried a mobile without internet connection. The communications network was used to narrow down dates, times and location, but chatter was kept to a minimum.

It wasn’t until the autumn that a member of the team first visited the Osaka airport’s private-jet terminal. While the airport is busy, this terminal emerged as a leading candidate for the operation because it was often vacant. It is attached to Kansai’s terminal two domestic flights area and is relatively small — only 3,200 square feet, including a meeting room, a circular lounge, a bathroom and a security zone, according to a brochure.

Another crucial selling point was that nothing but small bags would fit through the terminal’s x-ray machines — certainly not a large flight case like the one Mr Ghosn would end up using. By speaking to people who had used the terminal, the team learnt that bags were hardly ever checked on the way out.

By early December the operation to extract the car executive was ready to be activated, with Osaka as the extraction point. Mr Ghosn, though, was still keeping his options open, according to people familiar with his thinking, and the plan could still be called off at the last minute.

On Christmas Eve Mr Ghosn — having been denied the right for his wife to visit for the holidays — spoke to her for an hour via videoconference, according to his lawyer in Japan. The same day a person identifying himself as “Dr Ross Allen” signed a $350,000 contract with a Turkish private jet operator, MNG Jet Havacilik AS, to book a long-range Bombardier jet for two journeys: first from Dubai to Osaka and then from Osaka to Istanbul, according to booking documents viewed by the Wall Street Journal. The price also included logistical services on the ground in Osaka.

MNG said it was unaware of the plan and has filed a criminal complaint against an employee it says was complicit in the plot to smuggle Mr Ghosn through Turkey. Turkish prosecutors have charged the employee and four pilots with migrant smuggling. A lawyer for the employee said his client denied wrongdoing. Lawyers for the pilots either couldn’t be reached or declined to comment.

A pre-trial hearing on Christmas Day hardened Mr Ghosn’s resolve to leave Japan. He believed the court was dragging its feet and would never treat him fairly. Japan’s conviction rate for indicted defendants runs above 99 per cent. The country has defended its system as rigorous and prosecutors promised a fair trial.

Two days later, Taylor and Zayek arrived together in Dubai for the last time before their trip to Japan, records show. Then, on the evening of December 28, they were off on the red-eye to Osaka. On board their long-range Bombardier jet were the two concert-equipment cases.

Mr Ghosn left his three-storey Tokyo house at around 2.30pm local time, according to Japanese investigators who outlined the highlights of surveillance tapes to Japanese media. He was captured on video, alone, wearing a hat and a surgical mask common in Japan to protect from germs and pollution. He caught a cab for a short ride to the Grand Hyatt, an imposing hotel popular with business executives and political leaders in the Roppongi district. After entering near a lobby display of bamboo, disco balls and fairy lights put up for the New Year holiday, he met two foreign men, according to the investigators’ account. He narrowly missed Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, who checked into the hotel slightly later for an annual holiday.

Mr Ghosn was able to disappear in part because no one was monitoring his house regularly. His legal team was required to submit security footage only once a month. Security personnel at nearby locations said police and prosecutors didn’t appear to be watching the building. During an early stint in jail, he had petitioned the court to allow him to go free with an electronic ankle bracelet. The request was rejected because Japan doesn’t use the technology. He was later released on bail.

A private security company hired by Nissan to tail Mr Ghosn had stopped work that day after the businessman’s lawyers threatened legal action against the company for allegedly harassing him, according to a person familiar with Nissan’s plans. A Nissan spokesman declined to comment on the surveillance.

Mr Ghosn went to one of Japan’s biggest railway stations to catch a bullet train to Osaka. While the train was crowded, risks for this leg of the journey were low as Mr Ghosn was allowed to travel within Japan.

It was already dark in Osaka when Mr Ghosn arrived around 7.30pm. He took a taxi across town to a hotel in a tall white tower just a ten-minute drive to the airport, according to briefings by Japanese authorities. Mr Ghosn was seen entering the hotel but not leaving it, leading investigators to conclude he climbed into the box at the hotel.

That night a black van arrived at Kansai’s private jet terminal, where two people were waiting for it, according to a worker who helps airport bus customers with luggage. The van appeared to drop off passengers and left after a few minutes, this person said.

By 11.10pm Ghosn, Taylor and Zayek were in the air and heading north towards international waters, according to flight records and people familiar with the matter. Only Zayek and Taylor were on the flight manifest, according to people familiar with the Turkish investigation.

As the plane flew north, passing over Russia, Mr Ghosn emerged from the case but stayed in one of the cream-coloured seats at the rear, so as not to be seen by the flight crew. The jet arrived at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport at 5.12am local time, flight records show. One of the reasons for the stopover was to avoid raising suspicions in Japan with a flight plan connecting Japan with Beirut, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Ataturk, named after the country’s modern founder, was for a time Turkey’s busiest airport. But since last year it has been nearly a ghost town, with most traffic moving to a new airport that had opened across the city. Before sunrise, Mr Ghosn emerged from the plane into driving rain, leaving behind the concert-equipment case he had occupied, and took a car around 100 yards to a smaller business jet, according to people familiar with a Turkish inquiry into Mr Ghosn’s use of the aircraft.

Unlike the journey to Turkey, no flight plan was filed for the smaller jet and Mr Ghosn was sitting in a passenger seat. Taylor and Zayek did not accompany him on that final leg.

As a condition of his bail in Japan, Mr Ghosn had left his French, Lebanese and Brazilian passports in the care of his Japanese lawyer. But after his release from jail the businessman had successfully petitioned the court to allow him a second French passport, arguing that foreigners are supposed to carry passports with them when travelling within Japan. Mr Ghosn used the French passport and a Lebanese identity card to enter the country, according to sources familiar with the case.

That evening, with Mr Ghosn having made his way to his in-laws’ house, word of the escape began to leak out, first in the Lebanese media and then elsewhere. His PR team in the US issued this statement on his behalf: “I have not fled justice — I have escaped injustice and political persecution.”

For now, Mr Ghosn appears to be settling into life in Lebanon, where he has invested in a wine estate and had planned to spend more time during his retirement.

On New Year’s Eve Mr Ghosn and his wife, Carole, went to the house of a close friend for a party. The following day Mrs Ghosn took her husband to light a candle at the foot of a statue of St Charbel, a Maronite Christian saint who lived for 23 years as a hermit in Lebanon. Devotees consider the saint a miracle worker.

Being reunited with her husband is “the best gift of my life,” Mrs Ghosn texted the Wall Street Journal shortly after his return. “Believe in miracles,” she added. A Japanese court has since issued an arrest warrant for Mrs Ghosn on suspicion of perjury. A spokeswoman for the family called the move “pathetic”.

Mr Ghosn has been spending time in a pink mansion that Nissan purchased and paid to renovate for his use when he was running the Japanese car maker. Since his arrest Nissan had been trying to evict the Ghosn family, but they have been allowed to stay while the legal battle winds its way through the Lebanese courts.

Nissan, which views the building as a valuable asset, continues to have the house under surveillance, a lawyer for the company said. Nissan security and Mr Ghosn’s own detail sometimes patrol the property at the same time.

[Darth Bane]

Bibi pobedio!!! Bravo!!! 

[A sad]

Dok ceo svet prati desavanje oko korone neopazeno prolazi da je ISIS, odnosno lokalna grupa koja je povezana sa njima, u ofanzivi u severnom Mozambiku. Zauzeli su dva grada u provinciji Kabo Delgado, od kojih je jedan luka. 

[mare80]

Odakle oni tamo?

Nisam znao da su aktivni u tom delu Afrike...

Znam da su "jaki" u Nigeriji,Maliju,Nigeru, Cadu,ali za ovo prvi put cujem...

[A sad]

4 minutes ago, mare80 said:

Odakle oni tamo?

Nisam znao da su aktivni u tom delu Afrike...

Znam da su "jaki" u Nigeriji,Maliju,Nigeru, Cadu,ali za ovo prvi put cujem...

 

Ne znam ni ja mnogo. To sto ti pises je taj krug oko Boko Harama i drugi je saharski svercerski povezan sa independistickim pokretom Tuarega i ostacima AIGa. Ovo je nesto drugo. To je istocnoafricka islamisticka veza. Krovna organizacija je Al Shabab iz Somalije, koja je jaka i u Keniji, a ima celije i u Tanzaniji. Njen uticaj se u poslednje vreme prosirio i na severni Mozambik. Mozambik ima znacajnu populaciju muslimana, oko 20%, koncentrisanu uglavnom na severu zemlje. Prve celije je organizovao Aboud Rogo Mohamed, kenijski svestenik koji je povezan sa napadima na US ambasade u Najrobiju (Kenija) i Dar es Salamu (Tanzanija). On je bio duhovni lider ekstemnih muslimana na tzv svahili obali i u Somaliji. Prvo su organizovani kao pokret, koji se polako radikalizovao. 2015 pocinje njihovo suprotstavljanje centralnoj vlasti, a 2017  pobuna i teroristicki napadi. Lokalna organizacija se zove Ansar al Suna. Oni su povezani sa Al Shababom. Kasnije se pojavio i ISIL. Vlasti su dugo demantovale prisustvo ISILa u Mozambiku, ali ove akcije su izvedene pod njihovom zastavom. Ima tu mnogo nejasnih stvari, da li je Ansar al Suna i lokalni ISIL jedna te ista organizacija, pa neke akcije se vrse i pod imenom AL Shabab, pa je onda pitanje da li je to ista organizacija kao prethodne dve... Moje misljenje je da je u pitanju jedna organizacija koja je znacajno decentralizovana pa se razne frakcije predstavljaju kao samostalne ili delovi nekih vecih inostranih grupa. Koliko su oni zaista u kontaktu sa centralnom mrezom ISILa je veliko pitanje, ali su sa Al Shababom definitivno u kontaktu i od njih primaju znacajnu pomoc. Medju poginulim teroristima ima mnogo Tanzanijaca, ali i iz drugih africkih drzava (Somalija, Uganda, Kenija), tako da je jasno da islamisticke organizacije saradjuju duz obale.

 

ISIL predstavlja delovanje u Mozambiku kao operacije u Centralnoafrickoj provinciji. Ona obuhvata Mozambik i Kongo (Zair). Krizna zarista su provincija Kabo Delgado u Mozambiku (muslimana ima u velikom broju i u drugim provincijama na severu, ali tamo za sada ne deluju teroristicke celije) i tzv Kivu konflikt u Kongu. Sve te veze i koliko su oni stvarno ISIL je jos uvek prilicno nepoznato, kao i brojnost i stvarna snaga teroristickog pokreta u Mozambiku. 

[mare80]

Ja koliko pratim i kapiram to organizacije kao sto su Boko Haram i Al Sabab formalno priznaju vodjstvo ISIL u globalnom dzihadu ali deluju relativno nezavisno...

Za AlSabab znam da prave prilicno problema u Somaliji i okolnim zemljama i da je sukob sa njima konstantan vec godinama...

Secam se da je pre desetak godina Etiopija vodila veliku vojnu ofanzivu radi njihovog unistavanja...

Iznenadjen sam da su toliko dobro organizovani da su sposobni da izvrse operacije tog obima i u Mozambiku....

 

 

 

 

[A sad]

On 3/26/2020 at 10:03 PM, mare80 said:

Ja koliko pratim i kapiram to organizacije kao sto su Boko Haram i Al Sabab formalno priznaju vodjstvo ISIL u globalnom dzihadu ali deluju relativno nezavisno...

Za AlSabab znam da prave prilicno problema u Somaliji i okolnim zemljama i da je sukob sa njima konstantan vec godinama...

Secam se da je pre desetak godina Etiopija vodila veliku vojnu ofanzivu radi njihovog unistavanja...

Iznenadjen sam da su toliko dobro organizovani da su sposobni da izvrse operacije tog obima i u Mozambiku....

 

 

 

 

 

Da te dve organizacije deluju samostalno. Uopste ISIL je tako i organizovan da lokalne organizacije imaju potpunu autonomiju, posebno u udaljenim podrucjima. Benefit im donosi na planu marketinga i finansija. 

 

E sad, ovde postoji jos jedan problem koji stvara dodatnu konfuziju. Al Shabab uopste nije u sistemu Islamske drzave, oni su deo Al Qaidine globalne mreze, isto kao i onaj svercerski klan koji deluje u Sahari. Postojala je struja u Al Shababu koja je bila bliska ISILu, ali je tu doslo do raskola koji je pratio oruzani sukob. Sve pristalice ISILa su izbacene iz organizacije. Al Shabab je ostao dominantna islamisticka grupacija na svahili obali, e sad postavlja se pitanje sta se desava u tim rubnim podrucjima. Da li je se radi o pogresnim izvestajima medija koji po inerciji sve islamisticke grupe svrstavaju u ISIL, da li je tamo mozda taj prelazak u ISIL bio masovniji ili cak kompletan, da li je mozda napravljena nova organizacija koja deluje paralelno sa vec postojecim (najmanje verovatno), tesko je reci. Ipak ISIL tamo definitivno postoji, e sad u kom obimu je tesko reci, sam ISIL navodi da ima tu centralnoafricku provinciju koja deluje u Mozambiku. Ipak mislim da se ovde radi o dominantno Al Shabab islamistima i da je sam ISIL predimenzioniran u medijskim izvestajima.

 

Al Shabab je odlicno organizovan i ima podrsku u obicnom narodu, posebno medju siromasnim slojevima, a dobro se uklopio i u somalijsku klanovsku podelu. Imali su nekoliko harizmaticnih lidera, pogotovo prethodni lider Ahmed Godane. Mukhtar Robov je jedan od najpopularnijih politicara u Somaliji, kratko je bio lider, a dugo zamenik lidera AL Shababa, napustio je Al Shabab 2017 godine i otpoceo politicku karijeru, da bi sprecili njegovo napredovanje, vlast ga je uhapsila. Treba spomenuti da Al Shabab pociva na infrastrukturi koju je nasledio od Unije islamskih sudova, organizacije koja je prakticno upravljala Somalijom ranije. Oni tu infrastrukturu odlicno koriste, a odlicno su se uklopili i u rat klanova koji se tamo odvija. Iskoristili su takodje i islamske sudove u Keniji, a preko nekih uticajnih svestenika su rasirili mrezu duz cele obale. Imaju solidne finansije za tamosnje uslove, umesani su u pirateriju i svercovanje kata i sverc uopste, posebno sverc oruzja, a u kontaktu su i sa Al Qaidom u Jemenu, a samim tim postoji i link ka arapskim finansijerima. Naravno imaju podrsku i nekih drzava Eritreja je bila glavni saveznik. U njenom intresu je bilo izazivanje nestabilnosti u Etiopiji i tu im je Al Shabab prirodni saveznik, a ne odgovara im ni stabilna Somalija, sa druge strane Al Shabab ne siri mrezu na brojnu muslimansku populaciju u Eritreji. Dobijali su pomoc pre svega u oruzju i logistici, ali i finansijsku. Ne znam kako se odrazio mirovni sporazum Etiopije i Eritreje na tu saradnju, malo vremena je proslo. Al Shabab je aktivan na teritoriji nepriznate drzave Puntlend i tim aktivnostima imaju podrsku jos jedne nepriznate drzave Somalilend. Naravno, gde god je Al Qaida i islamski terorizam spominje se i Katar. 

 

Al Shabab ima odlican marketing i kampanju preko interneta i drustvenih mreza. Uspeli su da radikalizuju i neke nemuslimane koji su im se prikljucili kasnije. Propagandna aktivnost im je pre svega usmerena na USA i Britaniju, gde pokusavaju da vrbuju ljude koji su poreklom iz regiona istocne Afrike, ali i sto vise belaca. U tim svoji aktivnostima su imali dosta uspeha i veliki broj ljudi iz tih zemalja im se prikljucio. E sad vec je u legendu otislo da imaju citave jedinice tzv belih udovica, ali to je preuvelicavanje sem cuvene Samante Lutvejt pitanje je da li ih imaju jos nekoliko. Al Shabab ima i dobrovoljce iz Pakistana, Bangladesa, Malezije, imaju veze i sa Avganistanom i uopste svim teritorijama koje sunekad  bile britanske kolonije. Relativno veliki broj stranaca je u njihovim redovima, ipak oni vecinom jesu poreklom iz regiona. 

 

Tri velika napada Al Qaide, na americke ambasade u Dar es Salamu i Najrobiju, kao i napad u Londonu 2005 su organizovali i izveli ljudi koji stoje iza organizovanja Al Shababa. Al Shabab je nastao 2006, ali kao sto sam pisao vuce poreklo iz starijih organizacija i to su isti ti ljudi. Zanaci radi se o veoma sposobnoj i dobro organizovanoj teroristickoj grupi. 

 

Edit.

 

2015 godine su imali ozbiljan rascep koji je prouzrokovan sukobom izmedju Al Qaide i ISILa, koji su pratili oruzani sukobi i odlazak nekoliko lidera, uglavnom srednjeg ranga. Najpoznatiji je Abdul Kadir Mumin, koji je sada lider ISILa u Somaliji.

Edited April 5, 2020 by A sad

[Vjekoslav]

 

23 hours ago, Angelia said:

Don’t bring a cruise ship to a navy battle — unless you’re fighting Venezuela.

A Venezuelan navy patrol boat is now sitting on the bottom of the Caribbean Sea after losing a bizarre encounter with an unarmed cruise ship, in what has turned into a high-seas game of finger-pointing.

.....

It’s unclear who actually rammed whom, but it’s very clear that the Resolute lived up to its name.

 

The 122 metre-long ship was built and armoured for cruising through icy waters, and it suffered only minor damage in the collision, according to the cruise line company.

However, the Naiguata was “severely damaged” and started taking on water after colliding with the larger ship’s hull.

 

 

Koj'im djavo jbte?

 

Tortuga i Pirati s Kariba. to su i inace vode koje jedrilicari izbjegavaju, em zbog losih vjetrova em zbog (visestoljetnog) piratstva. 

 

https://www.fleetmon.com/vessels/ab-naiguata-gc-23_0_2117322/

 

https://www.fleetmon.com/vessels/rcgs-resolute_9000168_26557/

 

...

 

ovdje se vidi kolizija pramca turistickog kruzera i lijevog krmenog boka vojnog patrolnog broda. meni je iz ove snimke (koju su imbecili objavili?!) jasno da su pokusali otmicu kruzera, inace su ga mogli hladno (po pravilima sluzbe) prvo upozoriti (hicem ispred prove), a zatim i potopiti topovima (1 cañón Oto Melara de 76 mm + 2 cañones de 20 mm/25 (1 × 2), ako je vec optuzba da je usao u teritorijalne vode pod sumnjom za terorizam. umjesto toga, oni pucaju iz automatskog oruzja (kao klasicni pirati), i preko radioveze zahtjevaju od kapetana kruzera da zaustavi motore (kako bi se ukrcali).

 

 

....

[Angelia]

5 minutes ago, Vjekoslav said:

 

 

Tortuga i Pirati s Kariba. to su i inace vode koje jedrilicari izbjegavaju, em zbog losih vjetrova em zbog (visestoljetnog) piratstva. 

 

....

Bilo je jasno da su probalu da nateraju kruzer u Venecuelanske vode, iako mi motiv nije bio jasan, zvuci logicnije to sto ti kazes da se radi o pirateriji nego da su probali da ih optuze za terorizam. Iako mi malo suludo da za to, izaberes kruzer.

Da ne pricamo o epic fail sa pokusajem da ga skrenu sa kursa, i rezultat toga. Oni jesu pucali, ali ocigledno posto je posada na kruzeru znala kakav brod imaju, nisu izazvali znacajnu reakciju.

Meni je najsmesnije "Resolute"  I zamisljanje kako su ih kasnije vadili iz vode ko miseve....

[Klotzen]

Možda je to prerušeni Bizmark 🙂

[MeanMachine]

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RCGS_Resolute

 

 

 

Kad procitas istoriju broda i kompanije nisu tu uopste cista posla.

 

Inace nisu bili 110km od venecuelanskih voda vec 13.3 n.milja saopstenje same kompanije, to je bas blizu teritorijalnim vodama i vrlo verovatno da su bili u istima jer sami kazu da im glavni motor nije radio ceo dan a pomocni nije koriscen (stand by) cuvali ga ako se priblize blizu ostrva, jedino ostrvo je La Torguga ostrvo koje pripada Venecueli sto ce reci da su bili ipak solidno blize od 13.3n.milje, i da je ta brojka izbrana cisto reda radi: 

https://www.columbia-cs.com/statement-on-rcgs-resolute-incident/

 

Inace obalske straze sirom sveta imaju pravo da izvrse prepad na plovila koja su im sumljiva cak i ako nisu u njihovim vodama.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Klotzen]

Madurova priča se bazira na tome da je na samom brodu bilo 10-tak čamaca na naduvavanje koji su navodno trebali da posluže za prepad komandosa na Venecuelu. A po oštećenjima na brodu vidi se da je ratni brod hteo na silu da natera kruzer da skrene u njihove teritorijalne vode. Da je kojim slučajem bilo obrnuto i da je Kruzer bio agresivan prema ratnom brodu, ratni brod bi imao pravo da otvori vatru na njega tako da to sigurno nije ono što se desilo.

 

I ko još ide u komando prepad sa kruzerom od 150 metara ?

[MeanMachine]

3 hours ago, Klotzen said:

Madurova priča se bazira na tome da je na samom brodu bilo 10-tak čamaca na naduvavanje koji su navodno trebali da posluže za prepad komandosa na Venecuelu. A po oštećenjima na brodu vidi se da je ratni brod hteo na silu da natera kruzer da skrene u njihove teritorijalne vode. Da je kojim slučajem bilo obrnuto i da je Kruzer bio agresivan prema ratnom brodu, ratni brod bi imao pravo da otvori vatru na njega tako da to sigurno nije ono što se desilo.

 

I ko još ide u komando prepad sa kruzerom od 150 metara ?

 

Jel moze konkretno ta izjava Madura nadjoh ovo:

https://www.time24.news/t24/2020/04/maduro-accuses-portuguese-cruise-ship-of-act-of-terrorism-and-piracy-venezuela-2.html

 

Elem koliko vidim optuzuje ih za terorizam ali ne za neke camce i gerilce. Elem brod JESTE bio u venecuelanskim vodama i zato je obalska straza imala opravdanje da ga proveri. Kako znamo da jeste bio? Pa zvanicno saopstenje kompanije kazu da se sudar desio 13.3 n.milje od vencuelanskih voda (12n.milja je granica) ali da su pre toga duze od dana bili bez pogona a pomocni motor je bio u rezervi (nije koriscen) za slucaj da se priblize opasno blizu ostrvu, a to sigurno nije 13.3 n.milje vec znatno blize.

 

Po meni moguce da je neki okrsaj oko trafikinga.

Edited April 6, 2020 by MeanMachine

[Klotzen]

Pa da je bio u opasnosti da uđe u ter. vode VE upalio bi pomoćni motor. Inače brod nije bio u kvaru nego je rađeno održavanje broda i u onom izveštaju koji je dala kompanija piše da je pomoćni motor bio u "stand by" za slučaj da treba da izbegnu ulazak u ter. vode VE.

 

O Madurovim optužbama imaš ovde :

 

https://internewscast.com/venezuelan-navy-retweets-questionable-evidence-in-cruise-ship-case/

 

 

[Hamilton]

Klasika Venecuela. Sve u vezi sa njima je retardirano i civilizacijski zaostalo. Ako se brod potopio, odlicno. 

[...]

Jel' zna neko sta se desava sa Trumpovim pobratimom sjeverno-koreanskim demokratom, Kim Jong Un-om? Suska se da je tesko bolestan, mada iz njegovog staba kazu da mu nije nista, puca od zdravlja. Kao i Boris Johnson uostalom, ista stvar al nije Johnson za ove teme.

 

Sta se zbiva sa debelim manijakom, jel infarkt ili nesto opasnije?

[Klotzen]

Metar i po visok, metar i po težak, takvi ne žive dugo 🙂