Pandemija koronavirusa - ekonomske implikacije

[Tomiprunet]

Ne znam zasto se nesto treba nadoknadjivati? 

[Angelia]

10 minutes ago, I, Ja Sam Laki said:

Ne znam zasto se nesto treba nadoknadjivati? 

Kakvo je to pitanje? To mozes da pitas samo ako radis na nekom drzavnom poslu.

[Div]

8 minutes ago, Angelia said:

Kakvo je to pitanje? To mozes da pitas samo ako radis na nekom drzavnom poslu.

Pa, ima smisla, mada ga ja i ne shvatam kao pitanje, pre kao konstataciju. Ono što nije proizvedeno u ova dva meseca nema svrhe, verovatno ni mogućnosti, proizvesti duplo u naredna dva meseca, ili kolikogod u narednih 10, to nema ko da kupi. Jeste primer malo bukvalistički, ali princip stoji, ako nisam išao kod frizera, neću sada tri puta za mesec dana, neću u restoranu naručiti duplu porciju ni duplo piće, neću kupiti dva para cipela. Jednostavno, malo šta se može nadoknaditi, cilj je što pre ući u radnu rutinu, tražiti nove mogućnosti...

[Romantik]

Ovde se zaboravlja jos jedan bitan element, moze se proizvoditi, da tako kazem prekovremeno, ali sta vredi kad traznja nece biti vracena na pred korona nivo i to ne samo iz nekog straha ljudi ili psihologije, vec prosto i kad zazivi puna proizvodnja mere ogranicavanja potrosnje u nekom segmentu ce sigurno jos dugo biti prisutne, kad na to dodamo sve one iz usluznih delatnosti, koji ce najduze biti pod sankcijama, koji ce i dalje biti bez posla i koji nece imati prihode da zadovolje svoju traznju, vidimo da ce za poptuni oporavak, tj povratak na pred korona nivo, trebati par godina, i to uz uslov da do sledece godine ili izumimo vakcinu ili da odlucimo da tretiramo virus kao i bilo koji drug.

[Angelia]

15 minutes ago, Div said:

Pa, ima smisla, mada ga ja i ne shvatam kao pitanje, pre kao konstataciju. Ono što nije proizvedeno u ova dva meseca nema svrhe, verovatno ni mogućnosti, proizvesti duplo u naredna dva meseca, ili kolikogod u narednih 10, to nema ko da kupi. Jeste primer malo bukvalistički, ali princip stoji, ako nisam išao kod frizera, neću sada tri puta za mesec dana, neću u restoranu naručiti duplu porciju ni duplo piće, neću kupiti dva para cipela. Jednostavno, malo šta se može nadoknaditi, cilj je što pre ući u radnu rutinu, tražiti nove mogućnosti...

Pa ako gledas sa pozicije konuzmenta usluga.

Prvo dosta biznisa nisu takva vrsta usluga. Prodavci nekretnina koji ne mogu da rade, morace da rade dva puta vise da zarade ono sto su potrosili u ovom periodu bez zarade. Bankari koji nisu mogli da zatvaraju hipoteke, takodje, a znas koliko usluga prati samo jednu takvu transakciju?

Drugo razmisli o svima koji rade B2B i kojima je i potraznja pala, jer biznisi ne trose.

Znas koliko se kola nije prodalo u ovom periodu. Ili koliko se zgrada nije izgradilo, koliko planova nije odobreno, jer sluzbe ne rade.

[Div]

Nije bitno iz koje pozicije gledam, evo recimo da sam avioprevoznik, dva meseca mi avioni nisu leteli, osoblje nije radilo a očekuje plate, avioni se moraju održavati, ne mogu da očekujem da ću duplirati broj letova, još manje broj putnika, jednostavno tražnja za mojim uslugama će biti i dalje znatno manja nego pre krize, cilj mi je preživljavanje do promene okolnosti, priprema za veći posao kroz godinu, dve. Uspeh je ostati na nogama. Cilj jeste ostvariti dobit, ali nekada je dobro i ako se samo umanji gubitak.

Zato mislim da nije najsrećniji termin, nadoknaditi propušteno ili izgubljeno. Naravno neko može bukvalno i da nadoknađuje, da proizvede više robe, ukoliko ima kupca, odlično. 

[Tomiprunet]

Pa ako gledas sa pozicije konuzmenta usluga.
Prvo dosta biznisa nisu takva vrsta usluga. Prodavci nekretnina koji ne mogu da rade, morace da rade dva puta vise da zarade ono sto su potrosili u ovom periodu bez zarade. Bankari koji nisu mogli da zatvaraju hipoteke, takodje, a znas koliko usluga prati samo jednu takvu transakciju?
Drugo razmisli o svima koji rade B2B i kojima je i potraznja pala, jer biznisi ne trose.
Znas koliko se kola nije prodalo u ovom periodu. Ili koliko se zgrada nije izgradilo, koliko planova nije odobreno, jer sluzbe ne rade.

Ne razumem ovo u vezi prodavaca nekretnina? Sta ce raditi duplo vise da nadoknade izgubljeno? Prodati duplo vise nekretnina ili sta?

Sent from my Mi 9T Pro using Tapatalk

[Angelia]

4 minutes ago, I, Ja Sam Laki said:

Ne razumem ovo u vezi prodavaca nekretnina? Sta ce raditi duplo vise da nadoknade izgubljeno? Prodati duplo vise nekretnina ili sta?

Sent from my Mi 9T Pro using Tapatalk
 

Rekla sam raditi duplo, da li ce prodati duplo, zavisi, ali ce zatvoriti vise transakcija nego normalno. Sve ovo sto nije moglo da se zatvori dok smo u lockdownu.

To naravno zavisi i od toga koliko ce se ljudi vratiti na poslove, posto jel da gubitak posla znaci da neces mozda moci da kupis kucu koju si planirao.

Ali i cene ce pasti, pa cemo videti. Ali radice duplo sigurno, jer oni zive od provizije a ne plate.

[Angelia]

28 minutes ago, Div said:

Nije bitno iz koje pozicije gledam, evo recimo da sam avioprevoznik, dva meseca mi avioni nisu leteli, osoblje nije radilo a očekuje plate, avioni se moraju održavati, ne mogu da očekujem da ću duplirati broj letova, još manje broj putnika, jednostavno tražnja za mojim uslugama će biti i dalje znatno manja nego pre krize, cilj mi je preživljavanje do promene okolnosti, priprema za veći posao kroz godinu, dve. Uspeh je ostati na nogama. Cilj jeste ostvariti dobit, ali nekada je dobro i ako se samo umanji gubitak.

Zato mislim da nije najsrećniji termin, nadoknaditi propušteno ili izgubljeno. Naravno neko može bukvalno i da nadoknađuje, da proizvede više robe, ukoliko ima kupca, odlično. 

Dobro da ne bi izvlacili sad primere koje mogu i koji ne mogu da nadoknade, znamo da ce prevoznici i turizam, i ugostiteljstvo platiti cenu.

Vec sam ti rekla nije cela ekonomija usluzna delatnost i proizvodnja.

Kad se prica o nadoknadjivanju prica se o prometu ako cemo tako, a veoma cesto i izgubljenom vremenu. Zavisi od industrije birace se nacin na koji ce to da se nadoknadi.

Ako imas jednog developera koji mora da izgradi stanove za koje je uzeo pare, do avgusta, on ce da ima duple smene gradjevinaca da bi to postigao.

Ako imas bankara koji je loan officer morace da nadje dovoljno hipoteka i zajmova da nadoknadi koliko mora da ima obrta (sad pricala sa prijateljem koji upravo to radi, i zauzeti su sad sa ovim federalnim programom, ali hipoteka nema).

[Brian Setzer]

Ja mislim, a možda i grešim, vrlo intuitivno: ako USA bude u lokdaunu duže od (e sad nisam siguran kol'ko, ali broj je jednocifren) meseci, nema više povratka "na pred koronu", ulazi se na nepoznatu teritoriju. 

 

Edit: da dodam, posledice važe za ceo svet.

Edited April 16, 2020 by stray_cat

[Angelia]

7 minutes ago, stray_cat said:

Ja mislim, a možda i grešim, vrlo intuitivno: ako USA bude u lokdaunu duže od (e sad nisam siguran kol'ko, ali broj je jednocifren) meseci, nema više povratka "na pred koronu", ulazi se na nepoznatu teritoriju. 

 

Edit: da dodam, posledice važe za ceo svet.

Gresis, aj sad verovatno  povratak na pre korone ce samo biti duzi. Vec sad gledamo u oko 2 godine da se popravi steta.

Sto ne znaci da se neki stvari nece trajno promeniti.

[Green23]

54 minutes ago, stray_cat said:

Ja mislim, a možda i grešim, vrlo intuitivno: ako USA bude u lokdaunu duže od (e sad nisam siguran kol'ko, ali broj je jednocifren) meseci, nema više povratka "na pred koronu", ulazi se na nepoznatu teritoriju. 

 

Edit: da dodam, posledice važe za ceo svet.

Mnoge stvari će se iz korena promeniti, kao i mnogi biznisi.

 

60% Amerikanaca nema više od 1000$ ušteđevine. 

 

Hrvati su već otpisali ovu letnju sezonu, za sledeću su neke procene da 30% ljudi neće iz straha putovati, a da 20% njih neće moći iz finansijskih razloga. 

 

Ovo je nešto na šta niko nije bio spreman, mnogi brendovi kasne sa komunikacijom ka potrošačima, u Americi je već krenula kampanja da se kupuju domaći proizvodi, jer će se mnogo novca dati građanima, tako nešto se može i kod nas očekivati. 

[Klotzen]

Ja mislim da ce potrosnja cele ove godine da se svede na minimum. Pa mi ne znamo sta ce biti sledece zime. Oce li biti inekcije ili cemo imati reprizu ovoga. Ja sam razmisljao da ove godine promenim auto ali to otpada sada. Putovanja sam takodje otkazao do sledece godine. Pretpostavljam da ce vecina na slican nacin da preispita svoju potrosnju.

[Angelia]

Ima trenutno dosta nepoznatih da bi se tacno znalo sta se desava, jedna od najvecih je da li imamo vakcinu ili ne, i lek.

Recesija nam ne gine za naredne dve godine.

Uz to pitanje se postavlja kako ce i otvaranje ici. Ako sledeci talas bude jako visok to totalno menja rezultate, zato sto ce dosta ljudi promeniti ponasanje.

 

Postavlja se pitanje da li je Svedska u stvari donela pravu odluku. Iako ni njih nece zaobici posledice. 

[nonick]

Quote

 

It wasn’t until March 11 that the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, Jeneroux noted, after the virus had rapidly spread worldwide.

 

 

 

LINK

 

ne znam gde da stavim ovo, politika, zdravlje. Sve covid teme su prepune i prebrze., pa ajde ovde.

 

Recimo da WHO radi OK posao kad radi (ali ne - ali to je sledece) i da je uzmemo kao neki insurance ili preventative maintenance kompaniju (to bi bilo to). 

USA place oko 400 mil godisnje, Kina i Kanada oko 45 mil godisnje pojedinacno. Ne bi Kina trebala da placa bare 5 ili 10 bilona (milijardi) USD godisnje posle ovolikih virusa i stete koje su napravili u zadnjih neloliko godina?

Da bi placali toliko sigurno bi bilo manje stete u globalu. Jer bi znali da kod sledeceg sranja clanarina ide jos vise gore. isto tako ako za deset godina nema nikave frke clanarina se smanjuje.

 

A sto se tice WHO, neko tamo treba i kriminalno da odgovara za ovo sta se dogadja u svetu. Nedelju ili dve pre 11. marta je vec svakome bilo jasno (sem njima) da ovo nece da bude dobro. Milsim ako je neko trebao da zna sta se desava onda su oni sa 4.4 biliona (miijardi) godisnjeg budzeta. Mislim WTF?

Edited April 16, 2020 by nonick

[Angelia]

3 minutes ago, nonick said:

 

 

A sto se tice WHO, neko tamo treba i kriminalno da odgovara za ovo sta se dogadja u svetu. Nedelju ili dve pre 11. marta je vec svakome bilo jasno (sem njima) da ovo nece da bude dobro. Milsim ako je neko trebao da zna sta se desava onda su oni sa 4.4 biliona (miijardi) godisnjeg budzeta. Mislim WTF?

Oni su isli tamo kao da proveravaju i rekli nema brige Kina radi odlican posao.

[nonick]

11 minutes ago, Angelia said:

Oni su isli tamo kao da proveravaju i rekli nema brige Kina radi odlican posao.

 

pa da, mislim Kina jeste uradila dobar posao ali samo za sebe. Ali WHO su trebali znati da takav komunisticki lockdown nije nigde moguce u svetu.

A i videli su da se ovo siri neverovatnom brzinom - kao nikad do sada - ako su vec bili na licu mesta. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by nonick

[Angelia]

Just now, nonick said:

 

pa da, mislim Kina jeste uradila dobar posao ali samo za sebe. Ali WHO su trebali znati da takav komunisticki lockdown nije nigde moguce u svetu.

A i videli su ta se ovo siri neverovatnom brzinom - kao nikad do sada - ako su vec bili na licu mesta. 

Dok su oni pricali da Kina radi odlican posao i trazili da se ne uvode zabrane za Kinu, virus putovao sa Kinezima u Evropu i US.

 

Ne znam da li je ovo bas tacno, izvor nije bas najsrecniji ali ako jeste neko tamo treba da odgovara za ovo:

 

December 31 – China first reports a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan to the WHO

January 4 – WHO tweets about ‘a cluster of pneumonia cases’ in Wuhan with no deaths, saying investigations into the cause are underway

January 5 – The WHO issues its first guidance on ‘pneumonia of unknown cause’, saying there are a total of 44 patients and 11 in severe condition. The main symptom is listed as fever, with ‘a few patients having difficulty breathing’ 

The WHO says there is ‘no evidence of human-to-human transmission’ and that ‘no health care worker infections have been reported’

January 7 – China says it has identified the cause of the pneumonia as a ‘novel coronavirus’, initially named 2019-nCoV by the WHO

January 9 – The WHO praises China for identifying the new virus ‘in a short space of time’ and repeats its assessment that the virus ‘does not transmit readily between people’. It also advises against travel or trade restrictions on China

January 13 – The WHO says it is now working with authorities in Thailand after reports of a case there, and may call a meeting of the Emergency Committee

January 14 – The WHO tweets saying there is ‘no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission in China’, though later clarifies and says there may have been limited transmission via family members

Jan 20-21 - WHO's field team in China conducts a brief field visit to epicentre Wuhan

Jan 21 – The first case is confirmed on US soil in Washington, in a person who had travelled from China a week before

Jan 22 – A report from the WHO team sent to Wuhan notes ‘human-to-human’ transmission is taking place, but says more research is needed to assess ‘the full extent’. The report notes confirmed infections in 16 medics, a clear sign of transmission from patients

The team recommends avoiding large gatherings, isolating infected people, and a focus on washing hands as the best way to combat the virus’s spread

The same day, that WHO Emergency Committee convenes for the first time. Afterwards, Dr Tedros says he has spoken with the Chinese Minister for Health, and praises the government for its ‘invaluable’ efforts to halt the virus. He calls a second meeting for the following day

Jan 23 – With the Emergency Committee split, Dr Tedros says he has decided not to declare the virus a public health emergency of international concern. Referencing the lockdown of Wuhan, which was announced the same day, he says he hopes ‘it will be effective and short in duration’. He praises China’s ‘cooperation and transparency’ in tackling the virus

Dr Tedros says there is limited evidence of human-to-human transmission, mostly among families or doctors treating the virus. At this point, there are 584 confirmed cases and 17 deaths globally, including in Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Thailand and the US

He recommends screening at airports and tells countries to put testing facilities in place, but stops short of recommending a travel ban

Jan 28 – Dr Tedros and other senior WHO officials meet Xi Jinping in China, agreeing that a panel of experts should be sent to monitor the outbreak. He praises ‘the seriousness with which China is taking this outbreak, especially the commitment from top leadership and the transparency they have demonstrated’

Jan 29 – Dr Tedros gives a speech praising China’s efforts to contain the virus, saying the country ‘deserves our gratitude and respect’ for locking down swathes of the country to prevent the spread.

He notes a few cases of human-to-human spread outside China, which he says ‘is of grave concern’ and will be monitored closely

Jan 30 – The WHO Emergency Committee reconvenes early and declares a public health emergency of international concern. It comes after confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the US

Dr Tedros again praises China for ‘setting a new standard for outbreak response’ with its lockdowns, and says the small number of cases outside the country – 98 – is ‘thanks to their efforts’

Despite noting that a majority of cases outside China have a history of travel to or from Wuhan, he again recommends no measures to curb international travel or trade

Jan 31 – Donald Trump announces travel restrictions on people coming from China

Feb 3 – Dr Tedros gives a speech to the WHO updating on coronavirus, saying there are 17,238 cases in China and 361 deaths – now thought to be an under-estimate

He praises Xi Jinping for his individual leadership, and insists that cases outside China ‘can be managed’ if world authorities work together and follow recommendations which include – no ban on travel or trade, supporting countries with weak health systems, investment in vaccines and diagnosis, combating disinformation and urgent reviews of emergency preparedness

Feb 7 – Dr Li Wenliang, a doctor who first reported the existence of coronavirus and was initially silenced by China, dies from the virus

Feb 10 – The WHO’s team of experts arrives in China to assist with the outbreak

Feb 11 – The WHO names the disease caused by the virus COVID-19, saying it avoided including a geographical name because it risks ‘stigmatizing’ people. It says it will not be using the name SARS-CoV-2 because it risks causing ‘unnecessary fear’ by linking it to the 2003 SARS outbreak

Feb 12 – Dr Tedros says the number of new cases being reported in China has ‘stabilised’ but adds that it must be ‘interpreted with extreme caution’ and the outbreak ‘could still go in any direction’

Feb 16-24 – WHO team of experts convenes in China, visiting affected sites and sharing information on the best ways to tackle the crisis

Feb 17 – Dr Tedros begins chairing daily updates on the coronavirus response, with each briefing beginning with an update on the number of infections including from China, which are repeated without caveats

He give an analysis of Chinese data on some 44,000 confirmed cases. He says the data shows that 80 per cent of cases are mild, 14 per cent lead to severe disease, and 2 per cent are fatal. The disease is more severe in older people, with the young largely spared.

He urges world leaders not to ‘squander’ a window of opportunity to get ahead of the virus and prevent it from spreading

Feb 26 – Donald Trump announces a dedicated coronavirus response team, which Mike Pence will lead

Feb 28 – The team of WHO experts delivers its first report on the coronavirus. Among its major findings are that the disease likely came from bats, that it is spread through close contact with infected people and not through the air, and that most common symptoms include fever, dry cough and fatigue

The report praises China’s response as ‘perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history’ saying lockdowns were achieved ‘due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action’ and had achieved a rapid decline in cases

Mar 9 - The whole of Italy is placed on lockdown as the virus spreads, the first European nation to enter total lockdown

Mar 11 - The WHO declares coronavirus a pandemic, meaning it is spreading out of control in multiple locations around the world. At this point, cases have been reported in more than 100 countries

[𝓑𝓪𝓫𝔂]

6 hours ago, Angelia said:

Rekla sam raditi duplo, da li ce prodati duplo, zavisi, ali ce zatvoriti vise transakcija nego normalno. Sve ovo sto nije moglo da se zatvori dok smo u lockdownu.

To naravno zavisi i od toga koliko ce se ljudi vratiti na poslove, posto jel da gubitak posla znaci da neces mozda moci da kupis kucu koju si planirao.

Ali i cene ce pasti, pa cemo videti. Ali radice duplo sigurno, jer oni zive od provizije a ne plate.

 

Pa to nema sanse da se desi. Prodaja zavisi od potraznje. Milioni ljudi su izgubili posao, vratice ga vremenom, ali ce mnoge firme propasti pa samim tim i smanjice se broj mesta za zaposljavanje. Pokrenuce se neke nove firme, ali ce trebati vremena da pocnu da zaradjuju i da se probiju na trziste. 

Svo to vreme potraznja ce biti manja, pa nema svrhe raditi duplo ako nemas kupca. 

Pogotovo su nekretnine problem jer je vecina kupljena na kredit. Ti sto zive od provizije ce imati problem i zato sto ce cene sigurno pasti, niza cena, manja provizija. Nesigurno trziste ne prodaje vise nekretnina, nego manje. Vec vidjeno 2008/09.

[mrd]

1 hour ago, Baby said:

Vec vidjeno 2008/09.

Nije to isto! 

No ova paranoja nicemu ne pomaze. Ista prica sa sockom i 401k/403k. Palo to debelo, ali ako si se samo na to oslonio, to ti je isto kao Titove penzije. PUFF

[𝓑𝓪𝓫𝔂]

18 minutes ago, mrd said:

Nije to isto! 

No ova paranoja nicemu ne pomaze. Ista prica sa sockom i 401k/403k. Palo to debelo, ali ako si se samo na to oslonio, to ti je isto kao Titove penzije. PUFF

 

Mrde, ja bih te po stoti put molila da citas dogod ne razumes sta je napisano. 

 

Kakve veze ima penzioni plan sa kupovinom nekretnina i duplim radnim vremenom? 

[mrd]

 
Mrde, ja bih te po stoti put molila da citas dogod ne razumes sta je napisano. 
 
Kakve veze ima penzioni plan sa kupovinom nekretnina i duplim radnim vremenom? 

Well, ja se izvinjavam na pokušaju ozbiljne diskusije. Očigledno ne vredi ni pokušavati. Nemoj ništa da čitaš.

Sent from my LM-G710VM using Tapatalk

[𝓑𝓪𝓫𝔂]

12 minutes ago, mrd said:

Well, ja se izvinjavam na pokušaju ozbiljne diskusije. Očigledno ne vredi ni pokušavati. Nemoj ništa da čitaš.

Sent from my LM-G710VM using Tapatalk
 

 

Ti mrde ni sebe ne umes da objasnis. Ja za sve ove godine nisam ni jednom videla tvoj pokusaj ozbiljne diskusije, samo dobacujes nesto iz coska, samo tebi razumljivo. Ali bas ti hvala sto nisi propustio priliku da nekom ocitas bukvicu.

 

For your information, 22 miliona ljudi je ostalo bez posla u poslednje 3 nedelje, a ovom se ne nazire kraj. Da li ce real estate patiti, hoce iz mnogo razloga. Oni sto imaju pare ce imati prilike da kupuju jeftinije. Nestabilna ekonomija ne uliva sigurnost da bi se nekretnine kupovale vise, tako da agenti koji rade na procenat, mogu da rade i bez spavanja, zaradjivace znatno manje. 

[NMX]

5 hours ago, Angelia said:

Dok su oni pricali da Kina radi odlican posao i trazili da se ne uvode zabrane za Kinu, virus putovao sa Kinezima u Evropu i US.

 

Ne znam da li je ovo bas tacno, izvor nije bas najsrecniji ali ako jeste neko tamo treba da odgovara za ovo:

 

December 31 – China first reports a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan to the WHO

January 4 – WHO tweets about ‘a cluster of pneumonia cases’ in Wuhan with no deaths, saying investigations into the cause are underway

January 5 – The WHO issues its first guidance on ‘pneumonia of unknown cause’, saying there are a total of 44 patients and 11 in severe condition. The main symptom is listed as fever, with ‘a few patients having difficulty breathing’ 

The WHO says there is ‘no evidence of human-to-human transmission’ and that ‘no health care worker infections have been reported’

January 7 – China says it has identified the cause of the pneumonia as a ‘novel coronavirus’, initially named 2019-nCoV by the WHO

January 9 – The WHO praises China for identifying the new virus ‘in a short space of time’ and repeats its assessment that the virus ‘does not transmit readily between people’. It also advises against travel or trade restrictions on China

January 13 – The WHO says it is now working with authorities in Thailand after reports of a case there, and may call a meeting of the Emergency Committee

January 14 – The WHO tweets saying there is ‘no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission in China’, though later clarifies and says there may have been limited transmission via family members

Jan 20-21 - WHO's field team in China conducts a brief field visit to epicentre Wuhan

Jan 21 – The first case is confirmed on US soil in Washington, in a person who had travelled from China a week before

Jan 22 – A report from the WHO team sent to Wuhan notes ‘human-to-human’ transmission is taking place, but says more research is needed to assess ‘the full extent’. The report notes confirmed infections in 16 medics, a clear sign of transmission from patients

The team recommends avoiding large gatherings, isolating infected people, and a focus on washing hands as the best way to combat the virus’s spread

The same day, that WHO Emergency Committee convenes for the first time. Afterwards, Dr Tedros says he has spoken with the Chinese Minister for Health, and praises the government for its ‘invaluable’ efforts to halt the virus. He calls a second meeting for the following day

Jan 23 – With the Emergency Committee split, Dr Tedros says he has decided not to declare the virus a public health emergency of international concern. Referencing the lockdown of Wuhan, which was announced the same day, he says he hopes ‘it will be effective and short in duration’. He praises China’s ‘cooperation and transparency’ in tackling the virus

Dr Tedros says there is limited evidence of human-to-human transmission, mostly among families or doctors treating the virus. At this point, there are 584 confirmed cases and 17 deaths globally, including in Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Thailand and the US

He recommends screening at airports and tells countries to put testing facilities in place, but stops short of recommending a travel ban

Jan 28 – Dr Tedros and other senior WHO officials meet Xi Jinping in China, agreeing that a panel of experts should be sent to monitor the outbreak. He praises ‘the seriousness with which China is taking this outbreak, especially the commitment from top leadership and the transparency they have demonstrated’

Jan 29 – Dr Tedros gives a speech praising China’s efforts to contain the virus, saying the country ‘deserves our gratitude and respect’ for locking down swathes of the country to prevent the spread.

He notes a few cases of human-to-human spread outside China, which he says ‘is of grave concern’ and will be monitored closely

Jan 30 – The WHO Emergency Committee reconvenes early and declares a public health emergency of international concern. It comes after confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the US

Dr Tedros again praises China for ‘setting a new standard for outbreak response’ with its lockdowns, and says the small number of cases outside the country – 98 – is ‘thanks to their efforts’

Despite noting that a majority of cases outside China have a history of travel to or from Wuhan, he again recommends no measures to curb international travel or trade

Jan 31 – Donald Trump announces travel restrictions on people coming from China

Feb 3 – Dr Tedros gives a speech to the WHO updating on coronavirus, saying there are 17,238 cases in China and 361 deaths – now thought to be an under-estimate

He praises Xi Jinping for his individual leadership, and insists that cases outside China ‘can be managed’ if world authorities work together and follow recommendations which include – no ban on travel or trade, supporting countries with weak health systems, investment in vaccines and diagnosis, combating disinformation and urgent reviews of emergency preparedness

Feb 7 – Dr Li Wenliang, a doctor who first reported the existence of coronavirus and was initially silenced by China, dies from the virus

Feb 10 – The WHO’s team of experts arrives in China to assist with the outbreak

Feb 11 – The WHO names the disease caused by the virus COVID-19, saying it avoided including a geographical name because it risks ‘stigmatizing’ people. It says it will not be using the name SARS-CoV-2 because it risks causing ‘unnecessary fear’ by linking it to the 2003 SARS outbreak

Feb 12 – Dr Tedros says the number of new cases being reported in China has ‘stabilised’ but adds that it must be ‘interpreted with extreme caution’ and the outbreak ‘could still go in any direction’

Feb 16-24 – WHO team of experts convenes in China, visiting affected sites and sharing information on the best ways to tackle the crisis

Feb 17 – Dr Tedros begins chairing daily updates on the coronavirus response, with each briefing beginning with an update on the number of infections including from China, which are repeated without caveats

He give an analysis of Chinese data on some 44,000 confirmed cases. He says the data shows that 80 per cent of cases are mild, 14 per cent lead to severe disease, and 2 per cent are fatal. The disease is more severe in older people, with the young largely spared.

He urges world leaders not to ‘squander’ a window of opportunity to get ahead of the virus and prevent it from spreading

Feb 26 – Donald Trump announces a dedicated coronavirus response team, which Mike Pence will lead

Feb 28 – The team of WHO experts delivers its first report on the coronavirus. Among its major findings are that the disease likely came from bats, that it is spread through close contact with infected people and not through the air, and that most common symptoms include fever, dry cough and fatigue

The report praises China’s response as ‘perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history’ saying lockdowns were achieved ‘due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people to collective action’ and had achieved a rapid decline in cases

Mar 9 - The whole of Italy is placed on lockdown as the virus spreads, the first European nation to enter total lockdown

Mar 11 - The WHO declares coronavirus a pandemic, meaning it is spreading out of control in multiple locations around the world. At this point, cases have been reported in more than 100 countries

 

Je l treba opet da se vrtimo u krug oko fuckin' Kine ili ćemo da nastavimo da žmurimo? 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-response.html

 

Mislim, stvarno me smara da budem drveni advokat na forumu i da neko misli da branim jebenu Kinu iz nekog razloga ali ako je ovaj timeline što si pejstovala tačan, bukvalno sve inteligence službe u USA treba sutra da fasuju otkaz. Znamo svi naravno da to nije tačno pa me čudi što je ljudima teško da poveruju da su reakcije pojedinih država bile skandalozno kasne ili loše? Pritom, da ne bude zabune, kada mi je berza na all time high, kada spremam trade deal sa Kinezima i kada ta dva planiram da upotrebim da obrišem patos sa jednom od one dve demokratske mumije u novembru mesecu, nisam siguran ni da bi neko drugi reagovao drugačije...samo nakon što se desilo šta se desilo je prilično licemerno skalanjati se u stranu i tražiti krivca bilo gde drugo. 

[Angelia]

2 hours ago, Baby said:

 

Pa to nema sanse da se desi. Prodaja zavisi od potraznje.

Nisam razumela sta nema sanse da se desi. Ako si mislila na nekretnine, cene ce pasti naravno, kao sto sam rekla zbog toga sto se smanjuje potraznja usled gubitka posla. Medjutim s druge strane ce porasti potraznja investitora, koji su prosli kroz ovo bez nekog znacajnog gubitka kapitala, a neki bogami i zaradili.

Trenutna procena banaka je izmedju 5-10% pad u cenama. To nece znacajno uticati na agente.

 

Nije to isto kao 2008, ono je bio real estate bubble - ovo je pa visa sila. Ne vidis sada da je neka velika banka kolapsirala (ne znaci da ne moze da se desi), zato sto nema dovoljno kapitala? to je zato sto su ih naterali nakon 2008 da drze leverage pod kontrolom.

 

Svi znaju da ovo nije do trzista, nego "vestacka" kriza, koja naravno treba da se predje, ali isto kao sto ti ja analiziram, tako ce i vecina investitora, pre ili kasnije triste ce da se vrati, i sve sto je izgubilo nadoknadi. Ukljucujuci Wall st. Promenice se naravno.

 

6 minutes ago, NMX said:

 

Mislim, stvarno me smara da budem drveni advokat na forumu i da neko misli da branim jebenu Kinu iz nekog razloga ali ako je ovaj timeline što si pejstovala tačan, bukvalno sve inteligence službe u USA treba sutra da fasuju otkaz. Znamo svi naravno da to nije tačno pa me čudi što je ljudima teško da poveruju da su reakcije pojedinih država bile skandalozno kasne ili loše? Pritom, da ne bude zabune, kada mi je berza na all time high, kada spremam trade deal sa Kinezima i kada ta dva planiram da upotrebim da obrišem patos sa jednom od one dve demokratske mumije u novembru mesecu, nisam siguran ni da bi neko drugi reagovao drugačije...samo nakon što se desilo šta se desilo je prilično licemerno skalanjati se u stranu i tražiti krivca bilo gde drugo. 

Kao sto rekoh, nisam siguran da je timeline tacan, nisam proveravala, samo sam rekla da ako jeste to je kriminalno i od Kine i od WHO.

Mene realno ne interesuje da li su informativne sluzbe propustile nesto, cak i da jesu ti podaci im ne bi mnogo znacili. Zato sto njihove izvestaje ne mozes prezentovati prosecnom gradjaninu a da oni shvate to kao realnu stvar. Znaci u trenutku kad Tramp uvodi ban na letove iz Kine, javnost ga optuzuje za rasizam i xenofobiju. Sta bi ti rekao na to? Ah pa CIA nam rekla, juuuhuuu, srecno s time, kad ti WHO govori da to i nije big deal mozda novi SARS, sve ce proci za nedelju dve, Kina ima to pod kontrolom 

 

Ja i dalje verujem da su ovi lockdown, preterani, i politicki motivisani. Sve vreme se pitam da li smo platili previsoku cenu za paniku. Medjutim, da se ne bi hvatao za ovo, to je nebitno. Da su informacije iz Kine bile transparetne, da je WHO rekao "e ljudi ovo nije SARS, suvise brzo se siri, blokiraj ulazak iz Kine, spremi se za pandemiju" mozda bi reakcija mnogih drzava bila drugacija, mozda bi se spremali sa opremanjem zdravstva.

 

A ne bukvalno sto bi rekli ovde, da ostanu zateceni sa pants down. Ti kad pricas o berzi, i dealu sa Kinom, to ocigledno pricas o Trampu.

 

Gde su sve obavestajne sluzbe sveta koje su ostale zatecene? Pogledaj sta je uradilo Evropi. Niko, bas niko od njih nije gledao u Kinu? Svi su cekali na CIA i Trampa?