Epidemija koronavirusa (Covid-19 / SARS-Cov2) - dnevne aktuelnosti iz zemlje i sveta

[erwin]

 

[Darko]

33 minutes ago, erwin said:

 

 

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

 

Ne znam kako ove gore objašnjava sve citate koje si postavio. Na primer, jel možeš da pojasniš kako se excess deaths u UK odnose na ovo?

 

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But individual people are getting more unwell the more times they catch Covid, and the population are becoming sicker overall the more times everyone catches covid. 

 

[erwin]

[40Wins]

Znači brzo prenošenje, sa visokom smrtnošću?

[Eddard]

 

Ovo će se verovatno ispostaviti kao tačno, pre neki dan sam čitao neku studiju, probaću da nađem, gde se ispostavilo da što više puta dobiješ covid, a već od drugog puta signifikantno, povećava se smrtnost, učestalost long-covida i nekih drugih zdravstvenih problema, ne znam sad bas detalje. Ali poenta - nije nimalo bezazleno dobiti covid više puta. Naprotiv.

[erwin]

16 hours ago, Darko said:

Ne znam kako ove gore objašnjava sve citate koje si postavio. Na primer, jel možeš da pojasniš kako se excess deaths u UK odnose na ovo?

 

Pa lepo, ne umiru direktno od kovida već im on razjebe razne sisteme po organizmu pa ih onda dokrajče druge bolesti.

 

Zato i jeste tolika razlika ove godine između direktne smrtnosti od kovida i viška umrlih.

 

Pogledaj post ispod tog sa nizom, ima linkovana ova studija.

 

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Acute and postacute sequelae associated with SARS-CoV-2 reinfection

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3

 

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Fig. 5: Cumulative risk and burden of sequelae in people with one, two and three or more SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to noninfected controls.

 

 

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Risk and 1-year excess burden of hospitalization, at least one sequela and sequelae by organ system are plotted. Incident outcomes were assessed from 30 d after the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test to the end of the follow-up. Results from one SARS-CoV-2 infection (n = 234,990), two SARS-CoV-2 infections (n = 28,509) and three or more SARS-CoV-2 infections (n = 1,023) versus noninfected controls (n = 5,334,729), in those with a first infection before the Omicron wave, are compared. Adjusted HRs (dots) and 95% CIs (error bars) are presented, as are the estimated excess burden (bars) and 95% CIs (error bars). Burdens are presented per 1,000 persons at 1 year of follow-up.

 

[fancy]

A kod nas još nije počela vakcinacija ovim novim bisexualnim [emoji6] vakcinama?

Sent from my SM-N9860 using controlled FACT 200

[JohnnyDragon]

Lepo su nam ga spakovali sa koronom.

Šta je čovek u stanju da uradi.... i onda smo mi inteligentna bića? Yeah, sure...

Jebene plovke imaju veći intelekt od čoveka.

[Darko]

6 hours ago, Eddard said:

22 hours ago, Darko said:

 

Ovo će se verovatno ispostaviti kao tačno, pre neki dan sam čitao neku studiju, probaću da nađem, gde se ispostavilo da što više puta dobiješ covid, a već od drugog puta signifikantno, povećava se smrtnost, učestalost long-covida i nekih drugih zdravstvenih problema, ne znam sad bas detalje. Ali poenta - nije nimalo bezazleno dobiti covid više puta. Naprotiv.

Hvala tebi i @erwin-u. Način na koji je prvobitno prezentovano mi je zvučilo kao da je druga/treća infekcija gora od prve, što koliko znam nije tačno. Ali ima smisla da se povećava generalni zdravstveni rizik posle svake infekcije kovidom. Ono što hoću da kažem - prva infekcija je najopasnija ne?

[erwin]

Ni ostale nisu za otpisivanje kao nebitne.

 

Druga udvostručuje rizik od smrti u periodu od 180 dana.

 

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Compared to those with no reinfection, those who had reinfection exhibited an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 2.17, 95% CI = 1.93–2.45)

 

[erwin]

  

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COVID spreading faster than ever in China. 800 million could be infected this winter

China is now facing what is likely the world's largest COVID surge of the pandemic. China's public health officials say that possibly 800 million people could be infected with the coronavirus over the next few months. And several models predict that a half million people could die, possibly more.

"Recently, the deputy director of China CDC, Xiaofeng Liang, who' s a good friend of mine, was announcing through the public media that the first COVID wave may, in fact, infect around 60% of the population," says Xi Chen, who's a global health researcher at Yale University and an expert on China's health-care system.

That means about 10% of the planet's population may become infected over the course of the next 90 days.

Epidemiologist Ben Cowling agrees with this prediction. "This surge is going to come very fast, unfortunately. That's the worst thing," says Cowling, who's at the University of Hong Kong. "If it was slower, China would have time to prepare. But this is so fast. In Beijing, there's already a load of cases and [in] other major cities because it's spreading so fast.

The fastest spread of COVID yet
Cowling says the virus is spreading faster in China than it's spread ever before anywhere during the pandemic. It also looks to be especially contagious in the Chinese population.

To estimate a virus's transmissibility, scientists often use a parameter called the reproductive number, or R number. Basically, the R number tells you on average how many people one sick person infects. So for instance, at the beginning of the COVID pandemic, in early 2020, the R number was about 2 or 3, Cowling says. At that time, each person spread the virus to 2 to 3 people on average. During the omicron surge here in the U.S. last winter, the R number had jumped up to about 10 or 11, studies have found.

Scientists at the China National Health Commission estimate the R number is currently a whopping 16 in China durng this surge. "This is a really high level of transmissibility," Cowling says. "That's why China couldn't keep their zero-COVID policy going. The virus is just too transmissible even for them."

On top of that, the virus appears to be spreading faster in China than omicron spread in surges elsewhere, Cowling adds. Last winter, cases doubled in the U.S. every three days or so. "Now in China, the doubling time is like hours," Cowling says. "Even if you manage to slow it down a bit, it's still going to be doubling very, very quickly. And so the hospitals are going to come under pressure possibly by the end of this month."

So why is the virus spreading so explosively there?

The reason is that the population has very little immunity to the virus because the vast majority of people have never been infected. Until recently, China has focused on massive quarantines, testing and travel restrictions to keep the virus mostly out of the country. So China prevented most people from getting infected with variants that came before omicron. But that means now nearly all 1.4 billion people are susceptible to an infection.

China currently has a few highly transmissible variants of omicron spreading across the country, including one called BF.7. But these variants in China aren't particularly unique, and the U.S. currently has the same ones or similar ones, including BF.7. In the U.S., however, none of the variants appear to be spreading as quickly as they are in China.

And what about vaccines? Will they stem the surge?

About 90% of the population over age 18 have been vaccinated with two shots of a Chinese vaccine. This course offers good protection against severe disease, Cowling says, but it doesn't protect against an infection. Furthermore, adults over age 60 need three shots of the vaccine to protect against severe disease, Cowling's research has found. Only about 50% of older people have received that third shot, NPR has reported. And that leaves about 11 million people still at high risk for hospitalization and death.

"There is great uncertainty about how many severe cases there will be," says Chen at Yale University. "Right now in Beijing we don't see many severe cases." However, the outbreak could look quite different outside major coastal cities like Beijing because rural areas have much poorer health-care systems.

"In China, there's such a large geographic disparity in terms of health-care infrastructure, ICU beds and medical professionals. Most of the hospitals with advanced treatment technologies are located in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and all the big metropolitan areas."

Despite a recent effort by the government to increase ICU capacity, Chen still thinks there are way too few ICU beds in many parts of the country. "I don't quite believe the new estimate of 10 ICU beds per 100,000 people because this new number includes something they call a 'convertible.' So these are beds that are used for other treatments, such as chemotherapy and dialysis, that they are converting to an ICU bed."

Predictions about the death toll
Several models have predicted a large death toll for this initial surge, with at least a half million deaths, perhaps up to a million.

But that number, Chen says, depends a lot on two factors.

First off, people's behavior. If people at high risk continue to quarantine voluntarily, the death toll could be lower.

Second, how well the health-care system holds up under this pressure. "This is going to be a major test – and it's unprecedented," he says. "In my memory, I have never seen such a challenge to the Chinese health-care system."

No one knows for sure what's going to happen in China. But you can make some predictions based on what's happened in neighboring places faced with a similar surge. Take Hong Kong, for instance. Like China, the city had kept COVID at bay for years. But then last winter, they suffered a massive omicron surge. Over the course of only two to three months, about 3 to 4 million — or 50% of the population — caught COVID, Cowling says.

But Cowling thinks that ultimately China will still fare much better against COVID than America has.

"China has done really well to hold back the virus for three years, and ultimately, I think, the mortality rate will still be much lower than elsewhere in the world," he says, because the country has vaccinated such a high percentage of its population overall. In other words, the death toll will likely be high, given the sheer number of people infected, but it could have been much worse without the vaccinations, he explains.

"The mortality rate in China isn't going to surpass America's mortality rate [0.3%] at this point," he says. "But China has a really tough winter ahead."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/12/15/1143002538/china-appears-to-be-facing-what-could-be-the-world-s-largest-coronavirus-outbrea

[Sunshine State]

30 minutes ago, erwin said:

  

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/12/15/1143002538/china-appears-to-be-facing-what-could-be-the-world-s-largest-coronavirus-outbrea

 

Sto ne platis na mostu, platis na cupriji.... ako su vec uspeli da sacuvaju tolike ljude tokom pandemije, zasto se nisu bolje organizovali za vakcinaciju i zasto nisu postepeno popustali mere?

 

Ovako, sad su u sitiaciji kao svet pre skoro 3 godine....

[40Wins]

Fak, ovo se izgleda bas otima kontroli. Dzaba i taj stepen vakcinacije, kad su se ljudi vakcinisali odavno prema soju koji vise nije aktuelan. 

Ne znam sta da mislim. Preterali su u zatvaranju i nadgledanju dronovoima, al sad ko da su ih prebrzo pustili nazad... 

[Džudi]

Moram sve da vas pitam, a posebno @Eddard i @Sunshine State...

 

Kada neko preleži srednje blag oblik korone ( ima i druge bolesti, ali nije u grupi 65+ ) i sada posle mesec, dva ima long covid u vidu težeg problema sa koncentracijom i opadanjem pamćenja, da li će neurolog pomoći, ne sa vitaminima tipa ginko i selen, već sa lekovima?  

 

Da li to neurološko stanje može da se pogorša?

 

Hvala unapred na odgovorima.

[Sunshine State]

47 minutes ago, Džudi said:

Moram sve da vas pitam, a posebno @Eddard i @Sunshine State...

 

Kada neko preleži srednje blag oblik korone ( ima i druge bolesti, ali nije u grupi 65+ ) i sada posle mesec, dva ima long covid u vidu težeg problema sa koncentracijom i opadanjem pamćenja, da li će neurolog pomoći, ne sa vitaminima tipa ginko i selen, već sa lekovima?  

 

Da li to neurološko stanje može da se pogorša?

 

Hvala unapred na odgovorima.

 

Ono sto je do sad poznato je da long-covid simptomi mogu da potraju i do 6, 9, 12 meseci, i tzv. brain fog i opadanje pamcenja, losija koncentracija su dosta ceste neuroloske manifestacije long-covida.

 

Pretrcala sam na brzinu bazu podataka klinickih studija, ne nalazim neke specifcne lekove/grupe lekova koje se ispituju za ove simptome; nasla sam na pubmed jednu malu studiju koja je pokazala benefit koriscenja EGb 761 ekstrakta Ginko bilobe.

 

Mesec-dva je relativno kratak period da bi se to smatralo long-covidom; ja sam bas imala problema s koncentracijom posle prvog covida, nakon skoro godinu dana sam imala utisak da sam opet "ona stara".

 

Postoje neki slucajevi gde je lek koji koriste zavisnici, naltrexone, pomogao u nekim slucajevima brain fog i slicnih neuroloskih problema izazvanih covidom:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9250701/

 

[Džudi]

Hvala ti Sunčice 

 

Možda sam dosadna, ali pitam ponovo- da li to može da se pogorša i kod osoba koje imaju 50-54 godine? 

 

Jedan mamin komšija i bivši kolega, iz sela, ima 70 godina i posle covida dobio je Alchajmera. Da li to može da se desi i mlađim ljudima ili problemi sa pamćenjem i koncentracijom nestaju posle 6-12 meseci? 

[Sunshine State]

5 minutes ago, Džudi said:

Hvala ti Sunčice 

 

Možda sam dosadna, ali pitam ponovo- da li to može da se pogorša i kod osoba koje imaju 50-54 godine? 

 

Jedan mamin komšija i bivši kolega, iz sela, ima 70 godina i posle covida dobio je Alchajmera. Da li to može da se desi i mlađim ljudima ili problemi sa pamćenjem i koncentracijom nestaju posle 6-12 meseci? 

 

Nema potrebe opterecivati se, sve je statistika 🙂

Sanse za coveka da ce (jednom) umreti su 100 %!

 

Postoje studije ciji rezultati pokazuju da covid moze znacajno da poveca rizik od Alchajmera, pogotovo kod zena starijih od 85 godina:

 

COVID-19 has been linked to a significantly increased risk for new-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD), a new study suggests.

The study of more than 6 million people aged 65 years or older found a 50%-80% increased risk for AD in the year after COVID-19; the risk was especially high for women older than 85 years.

 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/980875#:~:text=The overall risk for new,vs 0.35%%2C respectively).

 

Treba "trenirati" mozak, isto kao sto treniramo i vezbamo telo, u svakom slucaju

[erwin]

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Bivalentne vakcine protiv kovida 19, kompanije "Moderna", od ponedeljka 26. decembra biće dostupne građanima Srbije na punktovima domova zdravlja

https://www.021.rs/story/Zivot/Zdravlje/326663/Batut-Bivalentne-vakcine-protiv-kovida-dostupne-od-26-decembra.html

[handys]

13 hours ago, Sunshine State said:

Postoje neki slucajevi gde je lek koji koriste zavisnici, naltrexone, pomogao u nekim slucajevima brain fog i slicnih neuroloskih problema izazvanih covidom

 

Kod nas se naltrexone prodaje uz bupropion u okviru leka mysimba, koji se daje kod gojaznosti. Koliko znam, ide uz izvestaj lekara, ali posto ima i tu dodatnu komponentu ne znam koliko bi pomogao.

[Maharaja]

7 hours ago, erwin said:

https://www.021.rs/story/Zivot/Zdravlje/326663/Batut-Bivalentne-vakcine-protiv-kovida-dostupne-od-26-decembra.html

baš su zakasnili sa ovim, s obzirom kako je urađena originalna vakcinacija.

 

Drugde su počeli bivalentne još letos. Ja sam moju drmno pre skoro dva meseca.

[erwin]

Kineska zvanična statistika umanjila broj novozaraženih otprilike 4000x (četiri hiljade puta) u prvih 20 dana decembra.

 

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Chinese officials estimate about 250mn people, or 18 per cent of the population, were infected with Covid-19 in the first 20 days of December, as Beijing abruptly dismantled restrictions that had contained the disease for almost three years. The estimates — including 37mn people, or 2.6 per cent of the population, who were infected on Tuesday alone — were revealed by Sun Yang, a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in a Wednesday health briefing, said two people familiar with the matter. Sun said the rate of Covid’s spread in the country was still rising and estimated that more than half of the population in Beijing and Sichuan were already infected, the people briefed on the meeting said. The explosion in cases followed Beijing’s decision this month to abandon its zero-Covid policy, which kept the virus at bay through mass testing, mandatory quarantine and draconian lockdowns. Sun’s figures, which were provided in a closed-door meeting, contrast with data put out by the National Health Commission, which reported 62,592 symptomatic Covid cases over the same period. Last week, China stopped publicly trying to tally the total number of infections after authorities curtailed Covid testing.

https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab

Edited December 24, 2022 by erwin

[Darko]

16 hours ago, erwin said:

Kineska zvanična statistika umanjila broj novozaraženih otprilike 4000x (četiri hiljade puta) u prvih 20 dana decembra.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/1fb6044a-3050-44d8-b715-80c18ca5c9ab

Vučić nevera.

[fancy]

Drugar primio ovu novu Moderninu vakcinu (Spikevax) pre podne u DZ Voždovac. Bio prvi, samo se pojavio, još nema gužve.
Ja ću posle posla...

Sent from my SM-N9860 using controlled FACT 200

[Pletilja]

Pitala, rekli da imaju Spikevax (Banat) hteli odmah da me bocnu ali nisam pristala......bilo mi usput na pesckoj ruti, necu valjda znojava da se vakcinisem pa idem sutra.....🙃

Samo da proverim: 2 kineza, 1 Fajzer pre 16 meseci, 65+, onkologija, - jesam kandidat?

Edited December 28, 2022 by Pletilja

[erwin]