Rat u Ukrajini

[erwin]

  

  Quote

Moscow braces for market meltdown Monday as new sanctions hit
Rouble expected to plunge in first day’s trading since Swift ban and other unprecedented measures enforced
Moscow is bracing for economic panic as markets open on Monday morning, with the value of the rouble expected to plummet after the US and European Union announced unprecedented sanctions over the weekend.

Those measures targeted the Russian central bank, which has intervened to prop up the value of the rouble following Vladimir Putin’s order to invade Ukraine. They also marked the first time Russian banks have been excluded from the Swift international payments system.

Top Russian banks such as Sberbank and VTB Bank have assured their customers that they’ll be able to access their rouble deposits and make exchanges into foreign currencies like dollars and euros.

But the economic turbulence will mark a key moment when the gravity of the crisis in Ukraine hits home for many ordinary Russians.

“It will be something we have not seen before,” said Sergei Guriev, economics professor at France’s Sciences Po and former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist.

Videos circulated on social media of long lines at some Russian ATMs on Sunday morning, although the rush for currency is expected to begin in earnest on Monday as markets open.

There are already signs that the value of the rouble has tumbled. By Sunday evening, Russia’s Tinkoff Bank was buying dollars for 89 rubles and selling them for 154 roubles, nearly double the price just three weeks ago.

The sanctioning of Russia’s central bank, which experts called “unprecedented”, could halt or limit interventions to prop up the value of the currency, making it harder to insulate Russians from the economic backlash of the invasion.

“Sanctioning the central bank is unprecedented,” said Maria Shagina of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs and the Geneva International Sanctions Network. “I think for one of the largest economies in the world – the size matters here. Previously it was only Iran, Venezuela, Syria that were under a maximum pressure campaign.”

Some details of the sanctions remain unclear, and it is possible that western governments will make exceptions for oil and gas payments.

But the sanctions on the Russian central bank, which could see a significant portion of its $630bn (£470bn) in reserves frozen in G7 countries, mark a quantum leap in the west’s sanctions campaign over the Russian invasion into Ukraine.

“There’s a psychological and reputational effect because now everyone just doesn’t want to deal with Russia in general,” said Shagina.

Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, predicted earlier this week that sanctions on the central bank would have drastic consequences for Russia.

“Apart from creating a domestic financial and economic crisis in Russia (massive dollarisation and destruction of the domestic financial sector), it will also make trade with Russia so difficult that it will be nearly impossible for some,” she wrote. “Energy and oil prices massively impacted.”

International financial institutions and other organisations have also started to reduce offices or cut ties with Russia due to the sanctions and reputational risk.

That has impacted industries far from the banking sector.

An events planner for a Moscow entertainment firm said simply: “It’s dead.”

“Everything is being cancelled,” the person said, asking not to be named because their firm organised government events. “I’ve basically written off all of my events ordered by international clients. Those that haven’t been cancelled yet will be soon. All I can count on are government contracts.”

Companies that sell popular goods also appear to be limiting their exposure to the Russian market. Automakers including Mercedes Benz, Audi, General Motors and Jaguar Land Rover have reportedly halted shipments of goods to Russia.

Shops selling iPhones and other products have told Russian reporters they were not receiving further shipments, although the reason was not immediately clear.

On Sunday morning, things still appeared calm in Moscow. Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, had taken the unusual step of keeping its branches open over the weekend. But several had no queues, with cashpoints stocked with roubles and ample supplies of dollars for sale for around 100 roubles.

By Sunday evening, Russian state TV hosts were exhorting their listeners to hold the line despite the tough economic times ahead, describing a period of economic isolation and autarky that recalls some of the world’s most trouble pariah states.

“I know some of you are finding this tough,” said Vladimir Solovyov, a Russian TV host who was sanctioned last week. “We’ll overcome it all, we’ll endure it all. We’ll rebuild our own economy from scratch, an independent banking system, manufacturing and industry. We’ll rely on ourselves.”

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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/27/ukraine-moscow-braces-for-market-meltdown-monday-as-new-sanctions-hit

[Beonegro]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:15 PM, erwin said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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For all practical purposes, kad bi ovo napravili Rusija bi prestala da plaća svoj spoljni dug od 478 milijardi dolara, plus bi nacionalizovala imovinu američkih i EU grupa na svojoj teritoriji, zato se nešto ovako neće ni desiti.

Prilično neozbiljan pamflet.

[attolini]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:31 PM, DJ_Vasa said:

Zar su i u Ap počeli da angažuju kretene? U vesti iz AP stoji sledeće:

 

Računam da imaju nekog normalnog prevodioca jer u boldovanom se vidi da je upravo njima dao intervju.

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Moguce je da su preneli ispravno..jednostavno izjave Klicka treba uzimati sa rezervom jer to nije prvi put..Covek je sve "demantovao" pre pola sata, gledao sam video..

 

. 

[shonke]

Ja gledao šta priča Borell. Kaže da zamrzavaju sve pare Ruske centralne banke koja gomilu novca drži vani.

[erwin]

 

[attolini]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:36 PM, Beonegro said:

For all practical purposes, kad bi ovo napravili Rusija bi prestala da plaća svoj spoljni dug od 478 milijardi dolara, plus bi nacionalizovala imovinu američkih i EU grupa na svojoj teritoriji, zato se nešto ovako neće ni desiti.

Prilično neozbiljan pamflet.

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Vec su uradili to...50% rezervi oni zaista ne kontrolisu, i nalaze se na racunima u svetu...dobar deo je u zlatu, koji je uglavnom " kod kuce"...sutra ce dan poceti veoma interesantno u Rusiji...spirala eskalacije se nastavlja, Borel je izjavio ako je to tacno da ce dostaviti bojevu avijaciju..

 

.

[Ludi za Poli]

 

Ovo je prilicno veliko za Ukrajinu. 

[ras kass]

Kakvu bojevu avijaciju, ne razumem?! 

[Hamilton]

Daaaaj afione da useru ova istocnjake agresore!!!!1

[McLeod]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:45 PM, alpaka Bereta Sida said:

 

Ovo je prilicno veliko za Ukrajinu. 

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Veliko ali i opasno. Sve opasnije postaje.

[DJ_Vasa]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:38 PM, attolini said:

 

Moguce je da su preneli ispravno..jednostavno izjave Klicka treba uzimati sa rezervom jer to nije prvi put..Covek je sve "demantovao" pre pola sata, gledao sam video..

 

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Koliko god da podržavam Ukrajinu, Kličko je u tom slučaju kreten.

 

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:45 PM, alpaka Bereta Sida said:

 

Ovo je prilicno veliko za Ukrajinu. 

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Zar nije potrebno školovati pilote za određeni tip aviona? Koliko znam, to važi i za civilne i za vojne pilote, a avion nije bicikl ili automobil.

[Beonegro]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:39 PM, erwin said:

 

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Izvinjavam se, nisam ovo vidio, vidio sam prethodne najave von der Leyen koje su išle u smjeru onemogućivanja centralne banke da se dodatno zadužuje.

E pa ovo je već žestok potez, prvi koji nije uglavnom kozmetički.

Prestanak plaćanja eksternih dugova je jedini koliko - toliko simetričan odgovor koji Rusija ima, ako se to desi biće loma i na evropskim finansijskim tržištima.

[Ludi za Poli]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:49 PM, McLeod said:

Veliko ali i opasno. Sve opasnije postaje.

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Opasno je svakako. Treba dati ljudima sansu da se odbrane. Iskren da budem reakcija Zapada je na kraju ispala i vise nego korektna. Britanci i Amerikanci kako ti inace i biva poveli, ostali slijedili. 

 

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:49 PM, DJ_Vasa said:

Zar nije potrebno školovati pilote za određeni tip aviona? Koliko znam, to važi i za civilne i za vojne pilote, a avion nije bicikl ili automobil.

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Vjerujem da ce im dati neke avione s kojim vec imaju iskustva. Sumnjam bas da ce dobiti americke Lockheed Martin najnaprednije igracke. 

[ras kass]

Sta zna dete sta je sto kila? 

[brusli]

Bogami, ako se Zapad preigra, Rusi mogu da daju ponudu Kinezima koja se ne odbija:

- delove Sibira

- podrsku za aneksiju Tajvana

 

E onda krece spetakl.

 

[McLeod]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:55 PM, alpaka Bereta Sida said:

 

Opasno je svakako. Treba dati ljudima sansu da se odbrane. Iskren da budem reakcija Zapada je na kraju ispala i vise nego korektna. Britanci i Amerikanci kako ti inace i biva poveli, ostali slijedili.

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I ja sam na kraju iznenadjen, bez direktnog vojnog ucesca.

 

Sa druge strane, negde procitah da je Rusija dve trecine svojih ukupnih kapaciteta vec angazovala. Sto znaci da imaju jos zaliha, ali takodje sto duze ovo traje to im sat vise otkucava.

 

Samo se nadam da ne krene all in, onda odosmo u kurac.

[BattleBender]

Šta znači odosmo u kurac?

[McLeod]

  On 2/27/2022 at 9:01 PM, BattleBender said:

Šta znači odosmo u kurac?

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Znaci da je moguce da pokrene globalni sukob ili WWIII ako ti tako draze.

 

Ako ne i full scale nuclear.

[Prijatelj Mitar]

  On 2/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, McLeod said:

Sa druge strane, negde procitah da je Rusija dve trecine svojih ukupnih kapaciteta vec angazovala. Sto znaci da imaju jos zaliha, ali takodje sto duze ovo traje to im sat vise otkucava.

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Mi zapravo ne znamo pouzdano koliko je vojske i sredstava Rusija do sada angazovala od svega onoga sto su dovukli na zapadnu granicu i jug Belorusije. 

[Ludi za Poli]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:59 PM, brusli said:

Bogami, ako se Zapad preigra, Rusi mogu da daju ponudu Kinezima koja se ne odbija:

- delove Sibira

- podrsku za aneksiju Tajvana

 

E onda krece spetakl.

 

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De procitaj jos 3-4 puta ovo sto si napisao pa ces shvatiti koliko je besmisleno. 

 

  On 2/27/2022 at 9:00 PM, McLeod said:

I ja sam na kraju iznenadjen, bez direktnog vojnog ucesca.

 

Sa druge strane, negde procitah da je Rusija dve trecine svojih ukupnih kapaciteta vec angazovala. Sto znaci da imaju jos zaliha, ali takodje sto duze ovo traje to im sat vise otkucava.

 

Samo se nadam da ne krene all in, onda odosmo u kurac.

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Ako se ovo otegne Rusi ce se morati povuci. Sumnjam da finansijski mogu izdrzati iole duzi rat, pogotovo sto ce sankcije postajati sve brutalnije, a Ukrajina dobijati sve vise i i vise oruzja od Zapada. 

 

Ne vjerujem da ce doci do upotrebe nuklearnog oruzja. Putin mozda jeste lud i poremecen ali vjerujem ipak da bi generali i oligarsi oko njega reagovali u slucaju da ludjak krene na opciju totalnog unistenja i uklonili ga na vrijeme. 

[Beonegro]

  On 2/27/2022 at 8:55 PM, alpaka Bereta Sida said:

Vjerujem da ce im dati neke avione s kojim vec imaju iskustva

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Poljaci, Slovaci i Bugari imaju ukupno četrdesetak MiG 29, to bi mogla da bude ta opcija.

[BattleBender]

  On 2/27/2022 at 9:02 PM, McLeod said:

 

Znaci da je moguce da pokrene globalni sukob ili WWIII ako ti tako draze.

 

Ako ne i full scale nuclear.

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Koliko ekonomski može da utiče ovo na nas?
I koliko može da utiče na nas, ljude koji radimo za strane firme, koje imaju samo predstavništvo ovde, i otvorene kancelarije (zbog papirologije)?
Pre 8 dana sam potpisao ugovor sa novom firmom(internacionalna, remote work itd itd), a u dosadašnjoj sam dao otkaz 😄

Ne zajebavam se, nemam jasnu percepciju oko ekonomskih implikacija...

[Venger]

Nisam siguran koliko je ovo stvarno realna pomoc, a koliko propaganda. Ukrajinski piloti su skolovani na migovima. Ne mozes tek tako da saltas pilote, nije to auto. Potrebna je obuka. 

[erwin]

SAD napad sa 300.000 vojnika ukupno u koaliciji na znatno manji i lakši za napredovanje Irak je trajao četrdesetak dana pre nego što je Buš proglasio pobedu.

[Prijatelj Mitar]

  On 2/27/2022 at 9:06 PM, Beonegro said:

Poljaci, Slovaci i Bugari imaju ukupno četrdesetak MiG 29, to bi mogla da bude ta opcija.

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Tesko da ce im dati sve, ali nesto od toga sigurno. Imali su i Madjari neke MiG-ove, ali ne znam dal su ih utopili.