Rat u Ukrajini

[DJ_Vasa]

Šef ukrajinske obaveštajne službe: Rusija pokušala da nabavi oružje iz Srbije, ali su je srpske vlasti odbile

 

Jedan naslov, a dve dobre vesti. Dobro je što ovi naši nisu hteli da prodaju ništa, a još bolje ukoliko su Z-lotvori spali na to da kupuju od od njih.

 

A i ova vest je dobra:

Ruski portali: Srbija nastavlja da snabdeva Ukrajinu municijom

 

Znam da se kaže da jedna lasta ne čini proleće, ali vesti deluju odlično za zemlju gde se KGB odavno uselio.

[FrediB]

12 minutes ago, DJ_Vasa said:

Šef ukrajinske obaveštajne službe: Rusija pokušala da nabavi oružje iz Srbije, ali su je srpske vlasti odbile

 

Jedan naslov, a dve dobre vesti. Dobro je što ovi naši nisu hteli da prodaju ništa, a još bolje ukoliko su Z-lotvori spali na to da kupuju od od njih.

 

A i ova vest je dobra:

Ruski portali: Srbija nastavlja da snabdeva Ukrajinu municijom

 

Znam da se kaže da jedna lasta ne čini proleće, ali vesti deluju odlično za zemlju gde se KGB odavno uselio.

A po komentarima uglavnom neverne Tome i bot-patriJote. 

[DJ_Vasa]

15 minutes ago, FrediB said:

A po komentarima uglavnom neverne Tome i bot-patriJote. 

 

Ti su odavno opisani:

 

[DEEP_IMPACT]

3 hours ago, Issey said:

 

Evo baš sam interesantan čuti tvoj plan... Sa kim da pregovaraju? Sa Putinom direktno? I šta da mu daju od teritorije da prestane rat? I koje garancije da traže da neće ponovo biti napadnuti?  

 

Treba li da se demilitarizuju, denacifikuju, kao što je Putin tražio? 

 

Ispada da smo mi koji podržavamo Ukrajinu za rat i za to da ljudi ginu jer mrzimo Putina, a vi pozivate na mir... banalizujem, ali tako deluje...

 

Napiši sa čim bi ti izašao pred Putina direktno da si Zelenski, a znaš šta ovaj traži i zbog čega je ušao u rat....

Za taj Plan ja nisam prava osoba, odrastao sam na zapadnom sistemu vrednosti, okrenut sam ka zapadu, a znam da tamo vlada drugačija i mnogo sirovija filozofija života uopšte. Zato se i ne pravim pametan, ali očigledno je da mnogo ljudi strada svakodnevno. Evo dok mi razmenimo par postova neko izgubi glavu, monstruozno. 

Ono što mi je jasno da nisu za džabe sve države NATO-a držale tu ravnotežu, pravili kompromise i dobro pazili da ne ulete u konflikt ovolikog kapaciteta sa Rusima. To su ozbiljni političari, garnitura koja je prošla pakao ww2 i znaju sa čim imaju posla sigurno više nego mi ovde. 

 

[40Wins]

1 hour ago, DJ_Vasa said:

Šef ukrajinske obaveštajne službe: Rusija pokušala da nabavi oružje iz Srbije, ali su je srpske vlasti odbile

 

Jedan naslov, a dve dobre vesti. Dobro je što ovi naši nisu hteli da prodaju ništa, a još bolje ukoliko su Z-lotvori spali na to da kupuju od od njih.

 

A i ova vest je dobra:

Ruski portali: Srbija nastavlja da snabdeva Ukrajinu municijom

 

Znam da se kaže da jedna lasta ne čini proleće, ali vesti deluju odlično za zemlju gde se KGB odavno uselio.

 

Meni je to jedno od mogucih objasnjenja zasto nas ne stiskaju toliko za uvodjenje sankcija, ako stvarno Krusik i ostali snabdevaju Ukrajince oruzjem preko nekih trecih kanala, posto je Ukrajincima verovatno potrebno svega. 

[McLeod]

Ma to je nacrtano jos od one avionske nesrece u Grckoj. Plus rade posao preko Pesicevih cerka firmi, a Evropa zmuri, svi dobiju svoj procenat i svi srecni.

 

Ja odavno mislim da je cak i namera da nas koriste ovde kao korumpirani prilepak i rade mutne poslove preko nas koje u EU ne mogu tek tako.

[FrediB]

3 minutes ago, McLeod said:

Ma to je nacrtano jos od one avionske nesrece u Grckoj. Plus rade posao preko Pesicevih cerka firmi, a Evropa zmuri, svi dobiju svoj procenat i svi srecni.

 

Ja odavno mislim da je cak i namera da nas koriste ovde kao korumpirani prilepak i rade mutne poslove preko nas koje u EU ne mogu tek tako.

Sa zvalom na vlasti, imaju idealnu mogucnost da to rade koliko vole. 

1 hour ago, DJ_Vasa said:

 

Ti su odavno opisani:

 

Da, ali su ipak enormna vecina u ovoj zemlji. 

[DJ_Vasa]

29 minutes ago, FrediB said:

Da, ali su ipak enormna vecina u ovoj zemlji. 

 

Slažem se da su većina, ali važno je da se pitaju isto koliko i za salinitet vode u Atlantiku.

[FrediB]

3 hours ago, DJ_Vasa said:

 

Slažem se da su većina, ali važno je da se pitaju isto koliko i za salinitet vode u Atlantiku.

Ne bih bas rekao, takvi masovno glasaju za vucica i slicne. 

[Devil In My Pants]

 

[MeanMachine]

3 hours ago, Devil In My Pants said:

 

 

Ko da je dotični našao posao tamo:

 

http://arhiva.glas-javnosti.rs/arhiva/1999/07/13/_slike/matic.jpg

 

Jer ovi podaci bi praktično značilo da je rat gotov pošto Rusija vojne tehnike nema.

 

Npr po Oryxu koji nikako nije proruski Rusi su ostali bez 1500 od 2000 tenkova od toga oko 500 najmodernijih verzija T72.

Edited March 1, 2023 by MeanMachine

[Devil In My Pants]

2 hours ago, MeanMachine said:

 

Ko da je dotični našao posao tamo:

 

http://arhiva.glas-javnosti.rs/arhiva/1999/07/13/_slike/matic.jpg

 

Jer ovi podaci bi praktično značilo da je rat gotov pošto Rusija vojne tehnike nema.

 

Npr po Oryxu koji nikako nije proruski Rusi su ostali bez 1500 od 2000 tenkova od toga oko 500 najmodernijih verzija T72.

Imaju oni mnogo vise nego sto pricaju. Podaci za bilo koju vojsku su smesni. Ocu reci da vrv vecina daje fejk podatke..pa tako i Rusi i UA...

 

UA kad dobije sta treba za ofanzivu to ce vec biti tamo.

[MeanMachine]

10 hours ago, Devil In My Pants said:

Imaju oni mnogo vise nego sto pricaju. Podaci za bilo koju vojsku su smesni. Ocu reci da vrv vecina daje fejk podatke..pa tako i Rusi i UA...

 

UA kad dobije sta treba za ofanzivu to ce vec biti tamo.

 

Vidi ima Oryx kaze da je njihova procena sa pocetka februara, oko 2000 tenkova sto unistenih sto ostavljenih sto zarobljenih. Neki kazu da je oryx proukrajinski ali nebitno nek bude njihova procena tacna.

 

A ukrajinska vojska kaze preko 3000 tenkova?

 

Pa dalje 300 mlaznih aviona, jel ti shvatas sta je 300 mlaznih aviona? Pa celo RV Rusije je manje od 1000 mlaznih aviona (Suhoji i Migovi). Pri tome u ovom ratu dobar deo oborenih aviona je uslikan pa se lako da proceniti koliko je aviona oboreno. Pri tome Rusi ne mogu sa neke livade da uzmu avion i srede ga ko sto ponekad mozes sa tenkom, jedini koji imaju odlicno konzervirane avione su Ameri jer imaju ozbiljno postrojenje za konzerviranje aviona koji onda su smestene u pustinji pa opet i takvi avioni zahtevaju pregled pa i opravke pre prodaje ili vracanja u sluzbu:

 

 

Inace to da Rusija ko i Ukrajina ima mnogo tehnike, to je na papiru. Npr da nije na papiru, je tako Rusija ne bi krenula sa modernizacijom T62 koja nije jeftina, termovizijska kamera domaca mozda ih kosta vise nego francuska, vec bi modernizovali T-72 ili jos bolje T-80.

 

Da Ukrajina ima stvarno tenkova ko na papiru ne bi joj trebali tudji tenkovi niti bi Radic rekao da su Ukrajinci sa tenkovima toliko tanki da se moze reci da ih ni nemaju. A Aleksandar Radic je sve samo rusofil.

 

Zato ti i rekoh oprezno sa podacima zvanicnim, obe strane lazu i mazu i to onda stvari konfuziju. Pri tome druge zemlje nece da iznose podatke zbog x razloga, desi se tu i tamo da neko od zavnicnika nesto kaze pa onda se to ispravlja kod Fon De Lajner koja nije vojno lice, i jedine izjave koje treba uzeti u obzir su npr od generala Milej po kome obe strane imaju slicne gubitke u ljudstvu stim sto Rusija gubi vise tehnike.

Edited March 2, 2023 by MeanMachine

[erwin]

Quote

ARGUMENT

An expert's point of view on a current event.

The Conversation About Ukraine Is Cracking Apart

What government officials are saying in public, and private, is fascinating—and full of contradictions.
By Stephen M. Walt, a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University.

I attended the Munich Security Conference for the first time this year, so I may be a member of Washington’s so-called Blob after all. I was grateful for the opportunity and enjoyed the experience, but I can’t say that I came away from it feeling better about the current state of the world.

The war in Ukraine dominated the proceedings, of course, and there were two important dividing lines in the collective conversation.

The first gap was the vastly different perceptions, narratives, and preferred responses between the trans-Atlantic community on the one hand and key members of the global south on the other. Several important media outlets have described this gap already, and a new report from the European Council on Foreign Relations contains compelling survey data documenting it. I attended several sessions and private dinners focused on this issue, and the discussions were revealing.

Diehard Atlanticists tend to portray the war in Ukraine as the single most important geopolitical issue in the world today. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said the war had “far-reaching global ramifications,” and the head of one U.S.-based think tank called it “the fulcrum of the 21st century.” Similarly, when asked how the war might end, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock replied that anything less than a complete Russian defeat and withdrawal would mean “the end of the international order and the end of international law.”

In this narrative, in short, what is at stake in Ukraine is the future of the entire rules-based order—and even the future of freedom itself. Some American and European speakers seemed to be competing to see who could give the most Churchillian speech, insisting that there was no substitute for victory, dismissing any risk of escalation, and calling for Ukraine’s supporters to give Kyiv whatever it needs to win a quick and decisive victory.

The rest of the world sees it differently. Nobody was defending Russia or President Vladimir Putin in Munich, and the United Nations General Assembly resolution calling for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine “immediately, completely and unconditionally” passed with more than 140 votes a few days later. But states outside the trans-Atlantic coalition (including important powers such as India, Brazil, or Saudi Arabia) have not joined Western-led efforts to sanction Russia and do not see the conflict in the same apocalyptic terms that most officials in the West do. Atlanticists in Munich seemed baffled by their stance, and a few people were sharply critical. I heard another Western think tank head chide nonaligned states by saying, “This conference is not about moral ambiguity.”

In fact, this gap is not that hard to understand. For starters, people outside the West view the rules-based order and Western insistence that states not violate international law as rank hypocrisy, and they were particularly resentful of Western attempts to claim the moral high ground on this issue. In their view, not only do Western powers make most of the rules, but they are also perfectly willing to violate these rules whenever it suits them. Not surprisingly, representatives from the global south were quick to bring up the United States’ illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003—where was the rules-based order then? Similarly, several speakers pointed out that the same Western governments warning that Russia is violating the post-World War II norm against acquiring territory by conquest did nothing to stop Israel from conquering the Golan Heights and West Bank, annexing the former and filling the latter with settlers. Russia is now heavily sanctioned—understandably—whereas the United States gives Israel generous economic and military aid as well as uses its veto to shield Israel from criticism in the U.N. Security Council. Such blatant double standards make Western moral posturing hard to swallow.

Furthermore, key states in the global south do not share the Western belief that the future of the 21st century is going to be determined by the outcome of the war. For them, economic development, climate change, migration, civil conflicts, terrorism, the rising power of India and China, and many others will all exert a greater impact on humanity’s future than the fate of the Donbas or Crimea. They wonder why Western governments quickly found tens of billions of dollars to send Ukraine but wouldn’t pay enough to mount an effective global vaccination campaign against COVID-19. They ask why Ukraine is now in the spotlight 24/7, but the West devotes only intermittent attention to the lives being lost in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, or other trouble spots. They are angry watching European states welcome Ukrainian refugees with open arms, given their prior hostility to refugees fleeing equally horrific situations in Syria or Afghanistan. And because the war is affecting their interests adversely (e.g., through higher food prices), they are more interested in ending it than helping Kyiv achieve all its war aims.

The global south’s measured stance does not mean it is “pro-Russian”; it means those states are merely as self-interested as other countries are. It also means the gap between the West and the so-called rest is not likely to go away.

The second gap I observed in Munich was a gulf between the optimism that top officials expressed in public and the more pessimistic assessments one heard in private. In the main events featuring officials such as Harris, Baerbock, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and others, one heard upbeat tales of Western unity and long-term prospects for victory. U.S. President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky echoed this message during Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv last week. While acknowledging that difficult days lie ahead, the focus in Munich was on the victory that would one day be won.

In private, however, the conversations were much more somber. None of my private meetings included officials at the very top of key governments, but nobody I spoke with expected the war to end soon and no one thought Ukraine would be able to retake all of its lost territory (including Crimea) no matter how much aid it gets in the next year. Indeed, increasingly fervent calls for more lethal aid (such as tanks, artillery, Army Tactical Missile Systems, and fighter planes) may reflect an awareness that Ukraine is in worse shape than mainstream reports indicate. Most of the people I spoke with expect a continued grinding stalemate, perhaps leading to a cease-fire some months from now. Western aid for Ukraine is not aiming for victory; therefore, the real goal is to put Kyiv in a position to strike a favorable bargain when the time comes.

This gap between public optimism and private realism is not surprising either. Leaders at war need to maintain public morale (and alliance cohesion), and that means telling an upbeat story in public. Expressing confidence in success and committing to fight for as long as it takes may help convince the enemy to revise its own war aims downward. Even if one thinks it’s time to cut a deal, saying this out loud will undermine one’s own bargaining position and get a worse outcome in the end.

But here’s what worries me. The Biden administration’s rhetorical support for Ukraine keeps increasing, and it continues to promise us some sort of happy Hollywood ending. Biden’s trip to Kyiv was a bold move that underscored his stamina and personal commitment to helping Ukraine, but it also tied his political fortunes to the war’s outcome more directly and visibly. If Biden can’t deliver what he’s promised, then what looks like a compelling demonstration of U.S. leadership today will look a lot less impressive a year from now. If the war is still at a brutal stalemate in February 2024 and Ukraine is being destroyed, then Biden will face pressure either to do more or look for a plan B. Given what he’s promised, anything less than complete victory will look like failure. Moreover, if China decides to give Russia more help, then Biden might have to impose additional sanctions on the world’s second-largest economy, triggering new supply chain problems and jeopardizing the delicate economic recovery that is now underway. And if that happens, Republican presidential hopefuls (one of them in particular) will be licking their chops and liking their chances.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/28/the-conversation-about-ukraine-is-cracking-apart/

Edited March 2, 2023 by erwin

[Henry Chinaski]

Na ruskim telegram kanalima se pominje ukrajinski napad na Brjanski region u Rusiji. Navodno 2 diverzantske ekipe iz Ukrajine su u selu Susanji, gdje je po ruskim kanalima, "talacka kriza". Navodno je uništena energomreza i gasna instalacija, i Rosgvardija se uputila tamo.

Opsta nevjerica i na srpskim rusofilskim kanalima.

[Dragan]

1 hour ago, Henry Chinaski said:

Na ruskim telegram kanalima se pominje ukrajinski napad na Brjanski region u Rusiji. Navodno 2 diverzantske ekipe iz Ukrajine su u selu Susanji, gdje je po ruskim kanalima, "talacka kriza". Navodno je uništena energomreza i gasna instalacija, i Rosgvardija se uputila tamo.

Opsta nevjerica i na srpskim rusofilskim kanalima.

Trebali su samo staviti malo vise zutih traka, da ne bi bilo zabune. 🤣

Moguca najava za sledeci krug mobilizacije.

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by Dragan

[djura.net]

1 hour ago, Henry Chinaski said:

Na ruskim telegram kanalima se pominje ukrajinski napad na Brjanski region u Rusiji. Navodno 2 diverzantske ekipe iz Ukrajine su u selu Susanji, gdje je po ruskim kanalima, "talacka kriza". Navodno je uništena energomreza i gasna instalacija, i Rosgvardija se uputila tamo.

Opsta nevjerica i na srpskim rusofilskim kanalima.

nema o ovome ni rec na nekim ozbiljnijim portalima.

 

zato ISW kaze da je pitanje dana kada ce Bahamut pasti u ruke Ruske armije.

 

a na g20 skupu u Delhiju Blinken i Lavrov se ozbiljno optuzivali, tako da je pokusaj Indije da arbitrira ovde potpuno propao.

[McLeod]

Bahmutu je odzvonilo u trenutku kad su Ukrajinci izgubili Soledar. Sad ga drze samo da bi sto vise gubitaka naneli, ne verujem da ima vise od 2000 vojnika unutra i uskoro ce poceti sa povlacenjem.

[RatzenStadt]

2 hours ago, Henry Chinaski said:

Na ruskim telegram kanalima se pominje ukrajinski napad na Brjanski region u Rusiji. Navodno 2 diverzantske ekipe iz Ukrajine su u selu Susanji, gdje je po ruskim kanalima, "talacka kriza". Navodno je uništena energomreza i gasna instalacija, i Rosgvardija se uputila tamo.

Opsta nevjerica i na srpskim rusofilskim kanalima.

Lazna uzbuna kao razlog za neku dodatnu eskalaciju?

 

Na videu objavljenom iz sela Susani su clanovi "Ruskog dobrovoljackog korpusa", koji cine ruski (krajnji) desnicari i od pocetka rata operiraju kao krilo Azova, dakle, na strani Ukrajine.

[freethrow]

Ne pazim na času, da budem iskren, pa me zanima - da li je i koliko realno a koliko fiktivno to pojavljivanje antiputinovskih ruskih ekipa u samoj RF koje se povremeno provlači?

[McLeod]

Mislim da je realno, samo je obim i steta koju mogu da mu naprave verovatno minorna. Da je postojala takva snaga ona bi se do sada vec iskazala.

[djura.net]

cnn

 

The Security Service of Russia (FSB) said in a statement via state media RIA Novosti Thursday that the agency — which also oversees border control — was carrying out joint operations with the Russian Ministry of Defense to counter what it described as "armed Ukrainian nationalists who violated the state border” in the district.

Details thus far have remained vague, but Russian state news agency TASS cited an anonymous source in the Russian security services that up to six people were being held hostage in two villages in the Bryansk region of Russia on the border with Ukraine by the alleged saboteurs.

According to Peskov, Putin cancelled a planned trip to southern Russia Thursday due to the events that he described as a “terrorist attack” and added, “measures are now being taken to destroy these terrorists.”

CNN cannot independently verify the Russian claims, and local media have not carried any images of the supposed fighting. US and Ukrainian officials have in the past warned that Russia has planned so-called "false flag" attacks along Russia's border with Ukraine as a pretext for military escalation, including Russian claims ahead of last year's full-scale invasion that Ukraine was sending "saboteurs" over the Russian border.  

"The story about [a Ukrainian] sabotage group in RF [the Russian Federation] is a classic deliberate provocation," said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the Head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine, in a statement on Twitter. "RF wants to scare its people to justify the attack on another country & the growing poverty after the year of war. The partisan movement in RF is getting stronger & more aggressive. Fear your partisans..."

[Don Dusko]

O i Seselj bio na Heppiju. :))

[fancy]

10 minutes ago, freethrow said:

da li je i koliko realno a koliko fiktivno to pojavljivanje antiputinovskih ruskih ekipa u samoj RF

 

Neko moje krajnje laičko mišljenje je da najverovatnije nećemo da ih gledamo i slušamo o njima i njihovim akcijama.

Ukoliko imaju realnu snagu, čućemo za njih i videti ih kao takve da postoje prvi i poslednji put kad više ne bude onoga zbog koga su (ako su, naravno) i nastali.

 

[Klotzen]

Rusofili se raspisali kako je Zelenski rekao da će "SAD sinovi i ćerke ginuti za Ukrajinu". Neverovatno koliko su ti ljudi glupi. Ajde razumem da ovo u Rusiji prolazi ali ići sa ovom propagandom u Evropi i SAD govori koliko su ti ljudi izvan realnog sveta. Čak i ovi naši se primili iako mogu sa dva klika da prvoere šta je rekao. Čovek povukao paralelu da ako se sada ne pomogne Ukrajini i ona izgubi rat rat će se preneti na baltičke republike i tako uvući ceo NATO u rat pa će onda da ginu i SAD sinovi i ćerke baš kao što to sada rade Ukrajinski sinovi i kćerke.

 

Ukrajinci su izgleda uspeli da finiširaju proizvodnju novih raketa za njihov Vilkha lanser raketa. Modeli M i M2 imaju domet 150km dakle isto kao i ove nove HIMARS rakete ali sa bojevom glavom skoro duplo većom 170 kg. Mogućnost greške je 10-30m što nije baš najbolje ali za veće objekte je sasvim ok. Sumnja se da je raketiranje meta u Marijupolju pre neku noć izvedeno ovim sistemom i da je to bilo finalno testiranje novih raketa. Standardne rakete za ovaj sistem imaju domet od 70 km i koriste se od maja na frontu. U masovnu proizvodnju nove rakete bi trebalo da uđu do proleća. Sumnja se da su zapadnjaci ovde odradili prepravke jer na ovaj način Ukrajina dobija sofisticirano naoružanje ali sopstveno.

 

Rusija pravi novi zakon po kom će se pooštriti kazne za kritikovanje rata u Ukrajini. Navodno su meta blogeri na internetu. Nije im dosta cenzure, žele da unište svaki vid slobodnog mišljenja. Na kraju će da vijaju i ljude koji po forumima sličnom ovom pišu o ratu.

 

U Rusiji teško da će biti nekih partizana koji se bore protiv putinovog režima, postoji jedna jedinica koja se bori sa Ukrajincima a pošto je ovo blizu granice postoji mogućnost da su to oni. No ovim Ukrajina ne dobija ništa jer se radi o nekim selima totalno nebitnim gde su mogli i artiljerijom da polupaju to što se tvrdi, tako da je najverovatnije false flag da bi Putin najavio neku novu mobilizaciju ili dizao podršku ratu. Videćemo još tokom dana da li će se neko sa ukrajinske strane oglasiti. Ako se radi o nekoj ofanzivi na neaktivnom delu fronta to definitivno ne ide sa par desetina ljudi nego bi verovatno pokrenuli makar jednu brigadu. Eno ga Putin već priča sve u 16 na konferenciji za štampu. Inače ako se radi o saboterima oni ne nose nikakve identifikacione trake jer time samo skreću pažnju na sebe. Naprotiv oni idu u nekim nestandardnim uniformama ili ruskim uniformama da bi što duže ostali neotkriveni. Takođe oni su do sada u svim videima sa fantomkama na glavi a ovde skroz bez njih, još onaj jedan ima bradurinu što upućuje na Čečene.

 

Francuski senator izjavio da će Francuska najverovatnije trenirati ukrajince na Miraž 2000C i da će im prodati 12 komada. Ministar odbrane nije hteo da odgovori na pitanje o tome.

 

Slovačka razmišlja da isporuči 10 MiG-29 aviona. Obzirom da imaju 11 baš me zanima šta će im taj jedan 🙂

 

Rusi pogodili stambenu zgradu u Zaporižju, za sada četvoro mrtvih.

 

U okolini Moskve osvanuli novi radari. Izgleda da Rusi očekuju napad na Moskvu ?