Angelia

Fatality Rate based on New York City Actual Cases and Deaths Worldometer has analyzed the data provided by New York City, the New York State antibody study, and the excess deaths analysis by the CDC. Combining these 3 sources together we can derive the most accurate estimate to date on the mortality rate for COVID-19, as well as the mortality rate by age group and underlying condition. These findings can be valid for New York City and not necessarily for other places (suburban or rural areas, other countries, etc.), but they represent the best estimates to date given the co-occurrence of these 3 studies. Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases) New York State conducted an antibody testing study [source], showing that 12.3% of the population in the state had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks. The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables. 19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies. With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC [source], this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City. The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883 [source], more than 10 times less. Actual Deaths (23,000: almost twice the number of confirmed deaths) As of May 1, New York City reported 13,156 confirmed deaths and 5,126 probable deaths (deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate but no laboratory test performed), for a total of 18,282 deaths [source]. The CDC on May 11 released its "Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020" [source] in which it calculated an estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths in NYC by analyzing the "excess deaths" (defined as "the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death") and found that, in addition to the confirmed and probable deaths reported by the city, there were an estimated 5,293 more deaths to be attributed. After adjusting for the previous day (May 1), we get 5,148 additional deaths, for a total of actual deaths of 13,156 confirmed + 5,126 probable + 5,148 additional excess deaths calculated by CDC = 23,430 actual COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020 in New York City. Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR) Actual Cases with an outcome as of May 1 = estimated actual recovered (1,671,351) + estimated actual deaths (23,430) = 1,694,781. Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) = Deaths / Cases = 23,430 / 1,694,781 = 1.4% (1.4% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have a fatal outcome, while 98.6% recover). Mortality Rate (23k / 8.4M = 0.28% CMR to date) and Probability of Dying As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people. Note that the Crude Mortality Rate will continue to increase as more infections and deaths occur (see notes under the paragraph "Herd Immunity" below for details). Mortality Rate by Age See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients When analyzing the breakdown of deaths by age and condition [source], we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690 (4.5% of all deaths) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition (or for which it is unknown whether they had or did not have an underlying condition). Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease, GI/Liver Disease, and Obesity [source] Under 65-year-old (0.09% CMR to date) 85.9% of the population (7,214,525 people out of 8,398,748) in New York City is under 65 years old according to the US Census Bureau, which indicates the percent of persons 65 years old and over in New York City as being 14.1% [source]. We don't know what percentage of the population in this age group has an underlying condition, so at this time we are not able to accurately estimate the fatality rate for the under 65 years old and healthy. But we can calculate it for the entire population under 65 years old (both healthy and unhealthy): with 6,188 deaths (26% of the total deaths in all age groups) occurring in this age group, of which 5,498 deaths (89%) in patients with a known underlying condition, the crude mortality rate to date will correspond to 6,188 / 7,214,525 = 0.09% CMR, or 86 deaths per 100,000 population (compared to 0.28% and 279 deaths per 100,000 for the general population). So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions. NOTE: We are gathering and analyzing additional data in order to provide more estimates by age group. Herd Immunity and final Crude Mortality Rate Crude mortality rate is not really applicable during an ongoing epidemic. And to reach herd immunity for COVID-19 and effectively end the epidemic, approximately two thirds (67%) of the population would need to be infected. As of May 1, New York City is at 20%, based on the antibody study findings. Therefore, the crude mortality rate has the potential to more than triple from our current estimate, reaching close to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population (1% CMR), and close to 300 per 100,000 (0.3% CMR) in the population under 65 years old, with 89% of these deaths (267 out of 300) occurring in people with a known underlying medical condition (including obesity). Znaci mere za one preko 65 i sa underlying condition, a ostali mogu nazad na radne zadatke. Naravno to ne znaci da se treba izlagati riziku bespotrebno.

Nije ovo tema za to, ali ja sam ranije postavila pitanje kako moze Tramp da bude kriv sto je slusao WHO i sto nije slusao WHO. Ne moze oboje da bude tacno. Ocigledno je slusao WHO, dok vrag nije odneo salu, pa je na svu srecu prestao da ih slusa i zatvorio letove, nazalost do tada je vec bilo kasno. Nisu tu krivi ni evropski lideri. Jedino ko je kriv, su Kina i WHO.

Bilo je sumnjivo od starta, policija odmah otvorila istragu, na osnovu toga sto su prijatelji rekli da je covek bio inteligentan, obrazovan i da ne bi popio sredstvo za ciscenje akvarijuma. Nisam stvarno pratila. Nadam se da se Obama nije umesao, ovo sto radi vec danima je nisko, dodati odbranu nekog takvog je stvarno previse. Za onog debila u Chicagu, jednostavno nema reci, nadam se da policija Chicaga nece da dozvoli da ga prosvercuju - posto je od njih napravio budale, nije cak ni B glumac Ali naravno ko cita demanti, a i ako nije na CNNu...

Nemam pojma kako je kod vas, ali kod mene u Philliju izrazunali 55% umrlih su iz domova.

To da je narcisoidan sam rekla jos pre 4 godine, oduvek bio. A lazov, nemam pojma, problem je sto to ide sa pozicijom, pa ne znam da li je to licna karakteristika ili pozicije.

Jedan od gadnih aspekata ove pandemije je upravo to - da ljudi umiru sami i izolovani.

To nema nista zajednicko. Bilo je objavljeno da je neko od lekara bio i predstavio mu istrazivanje. Jel i sad napravio deal kad je objavio da ce lek za ebolu poslati svuda?

Ne unosim ja zabunu, vise puta sam rekla da je zdravstvo briga drzava (a svih 50 su uvele neke mere) i onda dodje baby i kaze ne vidim nikakvu naredbu na federalnom nivou, pa naravno da je nema na federalnim nivou. I ja uvek govorim da je svaka drzava u US imala svoje mere, medjutim u vecini one su bile poprilicno slicne, i po ovom pitanju vecina njih je bila ista, trazila da se elektivne operacije odloze ili otkazu, instrukcije su izdate oreko udruzenja hirurga i drzava. Ja pricam o posledicama - a neki se bave propitivanjem da li je to moguce, jok lazem ja

Pokusala sam, izvini sto je naporno pisati fusnote za ljude koji ne razumeju US uredjenje, sta je federalna jurisdikcija a sta lokalna. nista od ovoga po pitanju mera nije federalna vlada, jedino gde imaju vlast je odobrenje FDA, i uglavnom u ovoj situaciji FDA je davao odobrenje, cak i kad neke stvari ne zadovoljavaju njihove zahteve. Edit: probacu sutra da nadjem vremena pa da napisem duze objasnjenje, posto ocigledno postoji nesporazum iako sam ranije objasnila, nista od ovih mera nije pod kontrolom federalne vlasti, tj Trampa, sve je u kontroli drzave, tj 50 drzava.

Zaglavila sam na tom textu kad su poceli da pricaju stvari koje komplet nisu tacne. Tipa da je on podrzao klorokin nakon sto je video to na Fox News, to prosto nije tacno. On je podrzao lek nakon sto je imao posetu iz firme, sa istrazivanjem iz Francuske, ta poseta je dokumentovana - istog dana na KZS on govori da je to mozda lek koji je resenje. Svakakve nebuloze su se pojavile u stampi - tipa da ima koristi od toga da bi se ispostavili da je cena korist za njega oko $200. da li se zaleteo - mozda. Ali nema dokaza da je to bilo maliciozno, samo da je imao zelju da postoji resenje, a to ne mogu nikome da zamerim.

Ko je rekao da je federalna naredba, pa to i ne moze da se naredi na federalnom nivou. Drzavna, od udruzenja medicinskih radnika, i zahtev drzavnih vlasti - ne federalnih, to nije u jurisdikciji federalnih vlasti. Skoro sve osim 9 drzava su radile o cemu pricam skoro 2 meseca, to sto su neke (koje uglavnom imaju republikance na vlasti) u zadnje dve nedelje popustile - ne znaci da se nije desilo, a mi ostali koji smo pod dems, uglavnom sve po starom.

Znaci debil, odlicno, znaci nije nikakva opasnost za upropascavanje US, niti neki buduci diktator, osim ako ne mislis da su svi glasaci i gradjani US debili. Mislim na one kojima je DT krivac za sve a da ne vide da to nema logike. Ti povremeno potezes neke stvari koje nemaju smisla, tipa DT ukinuo lockdown u NYC, a nije, niti moze (dokazano da se to nije desilo)....da li stvarno verujes u to - nemam pojma.

Nemaju Baby bolnice politiku, njima je sa drzavnog nivoa upucen zahtev, i instrukcije. Mislim ako nisi pogledala ko je od njih zahtevao da to urade. Koje restorane? Kod tebe naravno. Kod mene nista nije otvoreno. Rekla sam ti prethodno da ne cenis po subjektivnom primeru, 24 drzave su malo popustile lockdown, 26 su jos uglavnom zatarabljene

U toku pandemije troskovi hrane i "potrosacke korpe" su porasli. Potpuno si u pravu. Meni ako ne jedem meso (razne vrste) jednom dnevno kao i da nisam jela, nemam nikakve moralne dileme oko toga. I inace uopste ne zalim da potrosim na hranu, tu uopste i ne gledam cene, ali koliko su se brzo promenile u toku pandemije cak sam i ja primetila.

Ja bas juce gledala i mislila da sam pozitivno iznenadjena koliko su im cifre niske (ako su prave naravno), ne deluje da imaju tako veki uspon, ali mozda nesto propustam.

Od kako je dobio izbore on je izgovor za sve, ukljucujuci i stvari koje dems radi, jbga "isprovocirao nas".... Ljudi koji pate od TDS ne primecuju da im je logika uvrnuta, ili da je nekad uopste nema. Jos se nisu dogovorili da li je zli genije ili totalna budala, nesposoban, ali ce uvesti diktaturu....ustvari obicno je sve to odjednom. Samo nemoj da ukazujes da to nema smisla.

Bolnice nisu pretrpane, zasto bi morali da prestanemo da lecimo one sa virusom da bi radili transplantacije, ili lecili bilo koje druge bolesti? Vidis kako je Vjekoslav naveo kako su kod njih to resili odvojenim ulazom, zasto da ne?

On average, 20 people die every day from the lack of available organs for transplant. One deceased donor can save up to eight lives through organ donation and can save and enhance more than 100 lives through the lifesaving and healing gift of tissue donation. Organs that can be donated after death are the heart, liver, kidneys, lungs, pancreas and small intestines. Tissues include corneas, skin, veins, heart valves, tendons, ligaments and bones.

Ne znam sta da ti kazem, tebi je to senzacionalisticki, a njima je zivot, cekanje na pravi organ da se pojavi koji odgovara, i ako su te operacije hitne, mozda ne znaci da ce neko umreti sutra, ali to mozda moze postati problem za 10 dana kad odgovarajuceg organa nece biti.

Fox je preneo izjave iz firme. Nemam pojma sta ti smeta u tome. Zoki oni imaju nekoliko istrazivanja vezanih za Covid 19, malo mi je problematicno da kazes sa takvom sigurnoscu da nisu nista izumeli. Izvukao si jedan projekat i onda tvrdis da je to to. Mislim mozda su optimisticni, i podigli cene na Wall St, ko zna. STI-1499, A Potent Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibody, Demonstrates Ability To Completely Inhibit In Vitro Virus Infection In Preclinical Studies MAY 15, 2020 Sorrento And Mount Sinai Health System To Jointly Develop COVI-SHIELD™ Antibody Therapy Targeting SARS-CoV-2 Infection (COVID-19) MAY 08, 2020 SORRENTO TO PROVIDE MANUFACTURING SUPPORT TO CELULARITY AS CYNK-001 NK CELL TRIAL FOR COVID-19 BEGINS ENROLLING PATIENTS APR 02, 2020 SORRENTO AND THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH AT GALVESTON ENTER INTO PRECLINICAL TESTING AGREEMENT FOR COVID-19 THERAPEUTIC CANDIDATES MAR 31, 2020 Sorrento Launches Novel I-Cell™ COVID-19 Cellular Vaccine Program MAR 25, 2020 SORRENTO COLLABORATES WITH MABPHARM ON DEVELOPMENT AND COMMERCIALIZATION OF ACE-MAB™ TO POTENTIALLY TREAT COVID-19 MAR 24, 2020 SORRENTO AND SMARTPHARM TO COLLABORATE TO DEVELOP NOVEL GENE-ENCODED ANTIBODY VACCINE INTENDED TO PROTECT AGAINST COVID-19 MAR 23, 2020 SORRENTO DEVELOPS STI-4398 (COVIDTRAP™ PROTEIN) FOR POTENTIAL PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) MAR 20, 2020 NK cells potential against Covid-19 MAR 09, 2020

Jel ti meni prigovaras sto su oni rekli da ce da radi 100%? Ja rekoh ako je tacno. Znaci nije Fox izmislio, a Wall St je odreagovao, mozda su samo napumpali svoje akcije. Znaci nista dok ne bude trial stvarno, ali deluju legit, iako mozda preteruju sa 100%.

Pa ja cu pustiti industriju da kaze zasto: "As more healthcare providers are increasingly being asked to assist with the COVID-19 response, it is critical that they consider whether non-essential surgeries and procedures can be delayed so they can preserve personal protective equipment (PPE), beds, and ventilators," the CMS announcement says. To je iz marta. Znaci nema nikakvog razloga da su pacijenti ugrozeni. Cak i da si u pravu, a nisi, jer je jasno objasnjeno da se to radi da bi se svi kapaciteti posvetili Covid-19, valjda nije razumno da se ljudima rizikuje zivot na off chance da bi mogli da se zaraze koronom?

Ti imas jako mnogo poverenja u donosioci mera, i njihovu motivaciju. Niko nije pominjao business as usual, jer to bas ne moze biti, nego da mere kakve su postavljene, a uglavnom politicki motivisane, prave vise stete nego koristi. Ja vec ranije dala primer da je prva faza popustanja lockdowna kod mene da mogu crkve da rade, ali ne i elektivne operacije. I sad nakon masovnog otpustanja, nece biti dovoljno ljudi da se bavi tim operacijama.

Nisam ni ja sigurna da li treba verovati, ali saradnja sa Mount Sinai im daje kredibilitet. Firma je izdala statement, nema to nikakve veze sa Foxom, osim da su oni prvi pokupili pricu. Sada su je vec objavili svi mediji. izjave su uzete iz njihovog press release i investors statement, akcije su im otisle 244% gore od slanja press release. Jbga kad je Fox alarmantan: https://www.10news.com/news/coronavirus/san-diegos-sorrento-therapeutics-says-antibody-shows-ability-to-block-covid-19 Poenta nije u Fox newsu, nego u tome da nisu uradili trial. Fox je naravno napravio najsiru pricu.

Ako je ovo tacno, corona je mrtva Wall St misli da jeste. EXCLUSIVE — A California-based biopharmaceutical company claims to have discovered an antibody that could shield the human body from the coronavirus and flush it out of a person’s system within four days, Fox News has exclusively learned. Later Friday, Sorrento Therapeutics will announce their discovery of the STI-1499 antibody, which the San Diego company said can provide "100% inhibition" of COVID-19, adding that a treatment could be available months before a vaccine hits the market. "We want to emphasize there is a cure. There is a solution that works 100 percent," Dr. Henry Ji, founder and CEO of Sorrento Therapeutics, told Fox News. "If we have the neutralizing antibody in your body, you don't need the social distancing. You can open up a society without fear." https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough