EVROPSKA UNIJA

[Beonegro]

 

 

Make Europe Great Again trades are gaining traction

 

 

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - A more independent, less U.S.-reliant Europe is taking shape and investors sense opportunities in a long-shunned region that go beyond just snapping up defence shares.

Yes, there is reason for caution since massive German spending on defence and infrastructure will take time to be felt. Yet many are playing the long game.

"It seems that MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) trades are now rapidly replacing MAGA trades, which have lost their appeal," said Mark Dowding, CIO at RBC's BlueBay fixed income team, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again movement.

 

1/ DEFENCE FIRST

Brussels' plan to mobilise up to 800 billion euros ($866 billion) for rearmament and German fiscal expansion mean defence stocks remain fertile ground for investors, even after their surge since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

European aerospace and defence stocks (.SXPARO) have gained 33% this year, and valuation multiples have topped those of U.S. peers, reaching levels associated with luxury or tech.

Tankmaker Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE) was briefly more expensive than Ferrari (RACE.MI) this month, trading at 44 times its expected earnings, highlighting investor willingness to pay a premium for exposure to this long-term trend.

 

 

Defence companies' expected average yearly profit growth to 2028 range from 8% for BAE (BAES.L) to 32% for Rheinmetall, Citi estimates.

The European Union wants to buy more European arms, but it's a challenge. Since 2022, 78% of EU procurement has gone outside the bloc, with 63% to the U.S., European Commission data show.

And after a broad rally, some advise caution.

Vontobel fund manager Markus Hansen believes investors should focus on areas with real and pressing demand such as rebuilding depleted ammunition stockpiles and infantry-related equipment.

Defence supply chain firms and other sectors including communications meanwhile could benefit.

Eutelsat (ETL.PA) has surged 260% this month, driven by suggestions the Franco-British satellite operator could replace Elon Musk's Starlink in providing internet access to Ukraine.

 

"Apart from weaponry, defence is also about logistics, data and communication, and personnel. It's a comprehensive value chain where suppliers play an important role," Evli portfolio manager Tomas Hildebrandt said.

Truckmaker Scania, a unit of Traton (8TRA.DE), Atlas Copco (ATCOa.ST), which makes machinery for infrastructure and industrial projects, and construction companies in general, are possible examples, he said.

 

2/ HEY BOND

Whether it's joint EU bonds or more German debt, a wider pool of triple-A rated bonds that supports the euro's reserve currency status is coming.

Germany's historic infrastructure and defence spending could add up to more than a trillion euros of additional debt.

What's more, the EU plans to jointly borrow up to 150 billion euros backing loans to member states to help increase defence spending, a move even proponents didn't anticipate just months ago.

The bonds backing the programme, dubbed SAFE, will boost the EU's roughly 650-billion-euro debt pile.

It's a sign the bloc might become a more permanent borrower as investors have long hoped, stepping up to another challenge after its vast COVID-19 recovery fund.

The loans, however, are just a small share of the total 800-billion-euro plan, leaving the rest to national governments.

 

 

3/ BANKING ON IT

European banks (.SX7P) are popular as the fiscal boost brightens the economic outlook, and have surged 26% year-to-date in their best quarter since 2020.

Germany's economy should expand roughly 1.4% in 2026 and 2027 after almost four years of stagnation, Berenberg estimates.

A March BofA fund manager survey showed banks and insurance are the largest sector overweights in Europe, followed by industrials.

"We're positive on banks as higher growth expectations should steepen the (bond) yield curve, which would benefit banks and really spur credit growth," said GlobalX senior investment analyst Trevor Yates, noting the firm has seen strong interest in its DAX German stocks ETF.

Investors also expect European regulators will ease rules for banks given a U.S. deregulation drive.

BlueBay's Dowding said European bank capital bonds were the firm's largest overweight position in multi-asset credit funds.

 

 

4/ PERIPHERAL WINS

Spanish and Italian equities (.IBEX), (.FTMIB) are significantly cheaper than those in core Europe, says Societe Generale multi-asset strategist Manish Kabra, leaving them poised for gains.

Southern European stocks are also proportionally less exposed to U.S. tariffs than Germany or France and have a large exposure to banks.

"There are parallel things going on. One is the German debt brake and for that (mid-cap) MDAX and long euro is your trade, the other is banking regulation, and European nominal GDP growth, both of which impact banks," Kabra said.

"That is exactly what the periphery of Europe provides."

 

 

5/ RENEWABLE

Europe's push to become more energy independent, starting in 2022, is expected to continue, with renewable energy and home-based power firms benefiting, analysts said.

The European Commission has put forward an Action Plan to speed up permits for renewable energy projects, change how energy tariffs are set, and increase state aid for clean industries and more flexible power generation.

And 100 billion euros of Germany's planned spending increase will be channelled into climate and economic transformation.

Solar generation provided 11% of the EU electricity mix in 2024, versus 9.3% in 2023, overtaking coal, think tank Ember says.

European utility firms Iberdola (IBE.MC), Endesa (ELE.MC) and Enel (ENEI.MI) have rallied 7-16% so far this year.

[McLeod]

Bio si skeptican kad smo pricali o nekim od ovih stvari. Mada je ovo jos uvek "los i nikakav", trendovi obecavaju.

[Beonegro]

Marinija Le Pen i osmoro euro-posranika iz njene stranke proglašeni krivima za pronevjeru sreCtava iz budžeta EU, očekuje se da će joj sud izreći zabranu kandidovanja na javne funkcije u trajanju od 5 godina, odnosno da neće moći da se kandiduje na preCjedničkim izborima 2027. 

Iskreno, ta žena je toliko puta gubila predsjedničke izbore da nisam siguran da je za njenu stranku ovo loša stvar.

[Nicklord]

The full verdict is in and Marine Le Pen has been sentenced to five years of ineligibility, with immediate effect – effectively ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race.

The judges also gave Le Pen a four-year prison sentence – of which two years are a suspended sentence – and a 100,000 euro fine.

She is almost certain to appeal, and the prison penalty and fine would not be applied until her appeals are exhausted.

[Rex]

Ekstremni desničari koristili poziciju za proneveru i bogaćenje, pa ja sam šokiran kuda ide ovaj svet...

[Maharaja]

15 minutes ago, Rex said:

Ekstremni desničari koristili poziciju za proneveru i bogaćenje, pa ja sam šokiran kuda ide ovaj svet...

Bukvalno, kad se pojavi neko da sere o imigrantima, suverenitetu, pa krene u WEF zavere... ja se prvo uhvatim za novčanik da vidim da li je još uvek tu.

[Klotzen]

Nisam razumeo ovo oko zatvora. Jel ide u zatvor 2 godine plus uslovno 2 godine ili nešto treće ?

[djura.net]

47 minutes ago, Klotzen said:

Nisam razumeo ovo oko zatvora. Jel ide u zatvor 2 godine plus uslovno 2 godine ili nešto treće ?

Po ovome sto je @Nicklord citirao, ako joj se zalba ne usvoji - da, ide u 'prdekanu'. Ali zatvorska i novcana kazna su odlozene do odluke o zalbi, dok ova je zabrana ucestvovanja u javnom zivotu trenutno stupila na snagu.

[djura.net]

Sad prelistavam presudu, vidim da postoji mogucnost da kroz zalbu izbegne zatvor i provuce se sa nanogicom.

 

Inace je osudjena zbog pronevere 2.9M eura evropskih fondova. Divna jedna persona. Veliko bravo francuskom pravosudnom sistemu, uopste nije lako ni goniti, ni suditi ovakvom high profile politicaru, a u sustini klasicnom prevarantu i lopovu.

[RatzenStadt]

1 hour ago, Rex said:

Ekstremni desničari politicari koristili poziciju za proneveru i bogaćenje, pa ja sam šokiran kuda ide ovaj svet...

Ispravio sam ti ovo...

[McLeod]

Koja je to sica... kod nas je negde peti esalon SNSovaca pokrao toliko. Verovatno ima vise od hiljadu ljudi koji su pokrali vise.

[Nicklord]

1 hour ago, McLeod said:

Koja je to sica... kod nas je negde peti esalon SNSovaca pokrao toliko. Verovatno ima vise od hiljadu ljudi koji su pokrali vise.

Verujem da je i ona ali ovo je verovatno zicer neki bio

[RatzenStadt]

6 hours ago, Beonegro said:

Marinija Le Pen i osmoro euro-posranika iz njene stranke proglašeni krivima za pronevjeru sreCtava iz budžeta EU, očekuje se da će joj sud izreći zabranu kandidovanja na javne funkcije u trajanju od 5 godina, odnosno da neće moći da se kandiduje na preCjedničkim izborima 2027. 

Iskreno, ta žena je toliko puta gubila predsjedničke izbore da nisam siguran da je za njenu stranku ovo loša stvar.

 

A ja msm da ce ovo marginalizovati RN u godinama koje dolaze. Krajnje vreme je bilo.

 

A jel moze Retoje (kako li se vec cita) da popuni vakuum (ako li se moja predvidjanja o padu RNa pokazu kao tacna)? Uziva li on neku znacajniju podrsku u FR?

[Beonegro]

32 minutes ago, RatzenStadt said:

 

A ja msm da ce ovo marginalizovati RN u godinama koje dolaze. Krajnje vreme je bilo.

Ovo samo po sebi neće, moguće da će im otkinuti neki procenat ovih koji su im prišli nedavno, za njihove hard-core glasače ovo je vjerovatno podmetnuo Makron da ih ocrni. Ono što može da se desi je da se stranka pocijepa oko kandidata na predsjedničkim izborima 2027.

32 minutes ago, RatzenStadt said:

 

A jel moze Retoje (kako li se vec cita) da popuni vakuum (ako li se moja predvidjanja o padu RNa pokazu kao tacna)? Uziva li on neku znacajniju podrsku u FR?

 

Retailleau (Retajo) i Republikanci su za mene predstavnici bogate desnice i establišmenta, nisam siguran da je RN nacional-gologuzija u velikoj ljubavi sa tim ljudima, bez obzira što su u poslednje vrijeme zaoštrili retoriku prema Arapima (pošto realno glasači RN mrze Arape, neki od njih vjerovatno mrze i crnce, mada u mnogo manjoj mjeri, ka ostalim imigrantima su prilično indiferentni, pravi anti-imigrantski pokreti koji mrze sve imigrante i koji su u fazonu Francuska Francuzima su baš neke marginalne grupe, možda ovi identitarci od velikog Srbina Gujona).

 

Mene zanima da li tu nešto može da ugrabi pacov Zemour i njegova verzija fašizma sa primjesama cionizma, pošto se on profilisao kao favorit ovih ludaka koji su došli na vlast u SAD i imaće njihovu podršku, s tim da tu predstoji borba za poziciju lidera između Zemoura, njegove ribe Sare Knafo (inače oboje su sjevernoafrički jevreji i za posao white power lidera ih oboje malo jebe lični opis) i Marion Marechal (Marinijine sestrične, koja je bila predsjednički kandidat ispred te stranke).

[djura.net]

DW

 

Less than two months ago, the center-right bloc of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) won Germany's general election with almost 29% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came in second with almost 21%. 

 

Already there is a new trend, according to the latest Deutschlandtrend survey conducted for German broadcaster ARD. 

 

The CDU/CSU slumped to 26%, their lowest level since October 2022, while the AfD reached a new high of 24%.

[Beonegro]

Nove procjene kažu da će nas postojeće Trumpove mjere koštati preko 1% rasta u 2025., što za mnoge znači plitka recesija, iz koje bi ipak trebalo da izađemo 2026. zahvaljujući prije svega njemačkom stimulusu i povećanju vojnih budžeta.

Mnoge zemlje (u prvom redu Francuska, Italija, Belgija, moguće i Poljska, definitivno Mađarska i Slovačka) će imati problema sa nivoom budžetskog deficita, što će vjerovatno značiti nove pregovore o proceduri za previsoki deficit sa Evropskom Komisijom, zbog političke težine Francuske i sranja mahnitog krasnova će im vjerovatno ponovo biti udovoljeno (a realno ne bi trebalo, to udovoljavanje Francuzima da vječno troše više nego što proizvode će jednog dana napraviti sranje od kog će čitava eurozona biti u problemu).

Paradoksalno, recesija bi mogla da kratkoročno smanji tražnju, što znači da ne bi trebalo da bude rasta inflacije, možda vrlo marginalno zbog evopskih protiv-mjera (mislim da se još ne računa na potezanje tzv. evropske trgovinske bazuke, odnosno procedure protiv pokušaja prinude od strane trećih zemalja, koju imamo zahvaljujući precedniku dnevnoj dozi i njegovim pokušajima divljanja još u prvom mandatu). Dugoročno, ukoliko mjere ostanu na snazi, inflacija će biti strukturno viša nego u prethodnim godinama. 

Sve ovo upućuje na to da ce ECB tokom godine spustiti kamate više nego što je ranije anticipirano. Za sada nema najave promjene na planu kvantitativnog popuštanja, ECB nastavlja da smanjuje svoj bilans i novčanu masu u opticaju. što znači da za nedobok scenarije ima još u rezervi i upumpavanje dodatne likvidnosti u sistem kao tokom subprime krize i ćovida.

[Dragan]

"We have no bros and no oligarchs"

 

Donald Trump's second term has brought "historic changes", says EU President Ursula von der Leyen. In our interview, she explains how Europe must respond.