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Epidemija koronavirusa (Covid-19 / SARS-Cov2) - dnevne aktuelnosti iz zemlje i sveta


djole
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Dragi forumaši, molimo vas da u vreme ove krize ostanemo prisebni i racionalni i da pisanjem na ovoj temi ne dođemo u situaciju da naudimo nekome. Stoga:

 

- nemojte davati savete za uzimanje lekova i bilo kakvu terapiju, čak i ako ste zdravstveni radnik - jedini ispravni put za sve one koji eventualno osećaju simptome je da se jave svom lekaru ili na neki od telefonskih brojeva koji su za to predviđeni.

- takođe - ne uzimajte lekove napamet! Ni one proverene, ni one potencijalne - obratite se svom lekaru!

- nemojte prenositi neproverene informacije koje bi mogle nekoga da dovedu u zabludu i eventualno mu načine štetu. Znamo da je u moru informacija po pitanju ove situacije jako teško isfiltrirati one koje su lažne, pogrešne ili zlonamerne, ali potrudite se - radi se o zdravlju svih nas. Pokušajte da informacije sa kojekakvih obskurnih sajtova i sumnjivih izvora ne prenosite. Ili ih prvo proverite pre nego što ih prenesete.

- potrudite se da ne dižete paniku svojim postovima - ostanimo mirni i racionalni.

- aktivno propagiranje naučno neutemeljenih (između ostalih i antivaxxerskih) stavova i pozivanje na nevakcinisanje bazirano na njima nećemo tolerisati.

 

Budimo dostojanstveni u ovoj krizi, ovakve situacije su ogledalo svih nas. 

Hvala na razumevanju.

 

Vaš tim Vox92

Vakcinacija  

194 members have voted

  1. 1. Da li ste vakcinisani protiv Coronavirus-a i kojom vakcinom?

    • Pfizer/Biontech
    • Sinopharm
    • Sputnik V
    • Moderna
    • AstraZeneca/Oxford
    • Johnson & Johnson
    • Nisam i ne želim da se vakcinišem
    • Nisam još sigurna/an da li ću se vakcinisati
    • Preležao/la sam Covid-19, pa čekam da vidim da li i kada ću da se vakcinišem


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1 hour ago, Laki21 said:

 

Da li se ova (neutralizujuća AT) mere ovim testovima koje samoinicijativno izvodimo?

 

Ovo u laboratorijama? Mislim da tu mere samo na S protein, a da nemamo info o ostalim antitelima koja se stvaraju dodatno. 

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59 minutes ago, Tomiprunet said:

Evo me u Zenevi na aerodromu. Na svajcaskom sajtu kazu da bez obzira na vkacinisan ili ne treba pcr test . Na prelazu niko nije bio da proveri bilo sta. Na granicnom prelazu na zeljeznickoj stanici.

 

U Spaniji, Alicante, standardno traze samo popunjenu njihovu zdravstvenu deklaraciju koja, doduse, ukljucuje aploudovan covid certifikat, i nista drugo. Sletela pre neka dva sata i ovog puta, za razliku od pre mesec dana i ranije letos, nije trebao nikakav licni dokument. Samo ocitali QR kod u telefonu i dobrodosli u Espanju 😀.

Edited by vilhelmina
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3 minutes ago, vilhelmina said:

 

U Spaniji, Alicante, standardno traze samo popunjenu njihovu zdravstvenu deklaraciju koja, doduse, ukljucuje aploudovan covid certifikat, i nista drugo. Sletela pre neka dva sata i ovog puta, za razliku od pre mesec dana i ranije letos, nije trebao nikakav licni dokument. Samo ocitali QR kod u telefonu i dobrodosli u Espanju 😀.

 

1 hour ago, Tomiprunet said:

Evo me u Zenevi na aerodromu. Na svajcaskom sajtu kazu da bez obzira na vkacinisan ili ne treba pcr test . Na prelazu niko nije bio da proveri bilo sta. Na granicnom prelazu na zeljeznickoj stanici.

 

Mirujte!!!

 

Zato se pandmija i ne smiruje, zbog vas tak'ih sto ne mirujete na jednom mestu!! 😛

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2 hours ago, Tomiprunet said:

Evo me u Zenevi na aerodromu. Na svajcaskom sajtu kazu da bez obzira na vkacinisan ili ne treba pcr test . Na prelazu niko nije bio da proveri bilo sta. Na granicnom prelazu na zeljeznickoj stanici.

:s_d:

1 hour ago, Sunshine State said:

 

 

Mirujte!!!

 

Zato se pandmija i ne smiruje, zbog vas tak'ih sto ne mirujete na jednom mestu!! 😛

 

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Quote

Meaghan Kall, 1h, 20 tweets, 7 min read

NEW: Omicron Variant report from UKHSA
Technical Briefing 31 - Omicron Variant (VOC-21NOV-01) assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Updated Omicron Risk Assessment assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Firstly, the context of England epi:

Omicron case are rising rapidly.

Latest official count is 696, though the true number of infections is likely to be much higher, as we know Omicron is now ciruclating in many areas.

Omicron cases are rising faster than earlier variants
Image
A vanishingly small number of Omicron cases are in people who recently travelled abroad (any country) or had a known contact with a traveller.

Evidence of 2 things:
1) ongoing community transmission
2) we have effectively interrupted infections entering the country
Image
Right, onto the data...
1. VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS (symptomatic infection)
*caveat: early estimates*

Real-world surveillance data shows a significant reduction in VE for Omicron vs Delta

* 2x AZ, VE is ZERO
* 2x Pfizer, VE is ~30%

BUT! Boosters increase VE to 70-75% (Pfizer, in the 1st month)
Image
Interpret VE data with caution due to low numbers & some residual uncontrolled biases.

It is too early to measure protection against severe disease, but with earlier variants protection against hospitalisation & death has been largely preserved. All hoping this holds true 🤞 
The VE drop off is much greater than we saw with Delta, and suggests a level of immune evasion that could result in a surge in 'breakthrough' infections.

Good news is that boosters appear to mitigate much of that loss in VE, taking VE back to pre-booster levels
Image
2. REINFECTIONS

Likewise, with an immune evading virus you expect to see an increase in re-infections. And we do.

7% (25/361) Omicron cases were re-infections, vs
0.4% (336/85,460) Delta

After adjustment, this equals a 3- to 8-fold increased risk of re-infection with Omicron
Image
3. LABORATORY NEUTRALISATION STUDIES

Capping off the mounting evidence for Omicron's immune evasion, 2 UK & 3 international live virus studies were reviewed (UK papers coming!)

Omicron gives 20- to 40-fold reduction in nAbs compared to the viruses used to develop vaccines
Image
Both UK studies show more than 20-fold reduction in neutralising antibodies for Omicron vs Delta

2-dose AZ showed the greatest reduction: in most cases no detectable neutralising activity🙄

BUT! Boosters significantly improved nAbs, regardless of the vaccine in first course 
Taken together, this paints a very consistent picture for Omicron being immune evading.

This is reassuring scientifically, but also pretty depressing.

Let's move on to transmissibility studies.

🚨WARNING: also fairly depressing 
4. HOUSEHOLD TRANSMISSION
(caveat: early data)

Analysis of transmission in residential households (121 Omicron, 72,882 Delta)

19% of Omicron cases resulted in household outbreaks vs 8.5% of Delta cases

Adjusted odds of household transmission for Omicron:
3.2 (95%CI 2.0-5.0)
Image
5. SECONDARY ATTACK RATES (SAR)

Analysis using NHS T&T contact tracing data

Household SAR 2-fold higher for Omicron (21.6%) vs Delta (10.7%)

The risk of a close contact becoming a secondary case (adjusted odds ratio 2.1 (95% CI: 1.5-2.8)
Image
Again, small numbers of Omicron limit the analysis and lead to wide confidence intervals so this analysis must be repeated.

However, these 2 analyses use different datasets and methods to estimate household transmission so is compelling to get such similar results. 
6. GROWTH ESTIMATES

Taken together, it is no surprise that we are seeing exponential growth in Omicron cases (using SGTF as proxy)

3 day doubling time (0.35/day)
Rt= 3.7 (3.3-4.2)
Image
So let's recap.

Omicron has a large growth advantage over Delta.

At least part (if not all) is due to it's ability to evade our existing immunity acquired through either vaccination or previous infection.

Left unchecked, this will result in exponential growth of infections.
 
But will in result in more hospitalisations and deaths?

Well good news so far is there are no hospitalisations or deaths associated with Omicron.

This is encouraging news, probably largely due to vaccines and high levels of immunity.

But also, its very early days.
Image
There are very few cases in high risk groups, including the elderly
Image
And so Omicron would have to be very much milder than Delta, in order to avoid an increase in hospitalisations and deaths.

Remember, a small percentage of a big number is still a bigger number than we would like to see... 

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1469350830864322560.html

Edited by erwin
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"Brazzaville – The Omicron variant is reaching more countries in Africa and weekly COVID-19 cases in the continent surged by 93%. However, there are signs of hope as preliminary data indicates that hospitalizations across South Africa remain low.

Africa recorded more than 107 000 cases in the week ending on 5 December, up from around 55 000. Five countries accounted for 86% of the cases reported over the past week and all the sub-regions in the continent – up from one the previous week – reported increases in new cases. Southern Africa recorded the highest increase with a 140% hike mainly driven by an uptick in South Africa.

Research is being intensified to determine whether Omicron is fuelling the surge in cases seen in Africa. Emerging data from South Africa indicates that Omicron may cause less severe illness. Data which looked at hospitalizations across South Africa between 14 November and 4 December found that ICU occupancy was only 6.3 % – which is very low compared with the same period when the country was facing the peak linked to the Delta variant in July. Data from the same two-week period from one of the health districts most impacted by Omicron found that out of more than 1200 admissions, 98 were receiving supplemental oxygen and only 4 were on ventilation"

 

 

Clanak je od juce:

 

https://www.afro.who.int/news/omicron-spreads-severe-cases-remain-low-south-africa

 

 

"Omicron varijanta stiže do više zemalja u Africi, a nedeljni slučajevi COVID-19 na kontinentu porasli su za 93%. Međutim, postoje znaci nade jer preliminarni podaci pokazuju da su hospitalizacije širom Južne Afrike i dalje niske.

Afrika je zabeležila više od 107 000 slučajeva u nedelji koja se završila 5. decembra, u odnosu na oko 55 000. Pet zemalja čini 86% slučajeva prijavljenih tokom protekle nedelje i svi podregioni na kontinentu , u odnosu na jedan u prethodnoj nedelji,  zabeleželi su povećanje broja novih slučajeva. Južna Afrika je zabeležila najveći porast sa povećanjem od 140%, uglavnom izazvanim porastom u Južnoj Africi.

Istraživanja se intenziviraju kako bi se utvrdilo da li Omicron podstiče porast slučajeva u Africi. Novi podaci iz Južne Afrike pokazuju da Omicron može izazvati manje teške bolesti. Podaci koji su posmatrali hospitalizacije širom Južne Afrike između 14. novembra i 4. decembra otkrili su da je popunjenost intenzivne nege iznosila samo 6,3% – što je veoma nisko u poređenju sa istim periodom kada se zemlja suočavala sa vrhuncem vezanim za Delta varijantu u julu. Podaci iz istog dvonedeljnog perioda iz jednog od zdravstvenih okruga na koje je Omicron najviše uticao otkrili su da je od više od 1200 primljenih, 98 primalo dodatni kiseonik, a samo 4 su bila na ventilaciji."

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24 minutes ago, Sunshine State said:

"Brazzaville – The Omicron variant is reaching more countries in Africa and weekly COVID-19 cases in the continent surged by 93%. However, there are signs of hope as preliminary data indicates that hospitalizations across South Africa remain low.

Africa recorded more than 107 000 cases in the week ending on 5 December, up from around 55 000. Five countries accounted for 86% of the cases reported over the past week and all the sub-regions in the continent – up from one the previous week – reported increases in new cases. Southern Africa recorded the highest increase with a 140% hike mainly driven by an uptick in South Africa.

Research is being intensified to determine whether Omicron is fuelling the surge in cases seen in Africa. Emerging data from South Africa indicates that Omicron may cause less severe illness. Data which looked at hospitalizations across South Africa between 14 November and 4 December found that ICU occupancy was only 6.3 % – which is very low compared with the same period when the country was facing the peak linked to the Delta variant in July. Data from the same two-week period from one of the health districts most impacted by Omicron found that out of more than 1200 admissions, 98 were receiving supplemental oxygen and only 4 were on ventilation"

 

 

Clanak je od juce:

 

https://www.afro.who.int/news/omicron-spreads-severe-cases-remain-low-south-africa

 

 

"Omicron varijanta stiže do više zemalja u Africi, a nedeljni slučajevi COVID-19 na kontinentu porasli su za 93%. Međutim, postoje znaci nade jer preliminarni podaci pokazuju da su hospitalizacije širom Južne Afrike i dalje niske.

Afrika je zabeležila više od 107 000 slučajeva u nedelji koja se završila 5. decembra, u odnosu na oko 55 000. Pet zemalja čini 86% slučajeva prijavljenih tokom protekle nedelje i svi podregioni na kontinentu , u odnosu na jedan u prethodnoj nedelji,  zabeleželi su povećanje broja novih slučajeva. Južna Afrika je zabeležila najveći porast sa povećanjem od 140%, uglavnom izazvanim porastom u Južnoj Africi.

Istraživanja se intenziviraju kako bi se utvrdilo da li Omicron podstiče porast slučajeva u Africi. Novi podaci iz Južne Afrike pokazuju da Omicron može izazvati manje teške bolesti. Podaci koji su posmatrali hospitalizacije širom Južne Afrike između 14. novembra i 4. decembra otkrili su da je popunjenost intenzivne nege iznosila samo 6,3% – što je veoma nisko u poređenju sa istim periodom kada se zemlja suočavala sa vrhuncem vezanim za Delta varijantu u julu. Podaci iz istog dvonedeljnog perioda iz jednog od zdravstvenih okruga na koje je Omicron najviše uticao otkrili su da je od više od 1200 primljenih, 98 primalo dodatni kiseonik, a samo 4 su bila na ventilaciji."

Mislim da je, bez zezanja rano za svaku prognozu. Treba još dobar mesec da svodimo nekakav račun ili šanse. Sunčice ovo kao Simpsonov paradoks.

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37 minutes ago, urosg3 said:

Mislim da je, bez zezanja rano za svaku prognozu. Treba još dobar mesec da svodimo nekakav račun ili šanse. Sunčice ovo kao Simpsonov paradoks.

 

Ma znam!

Isto kao sto je rano da prognoziramo pomor, jos je ranije da kazemo da je bezopasan!

 

A i obecala sam nekim ovde da cu malo smirivati situaciju, sto ne znaci da smete da skidate maske, ne perete ruke i ne drzite distancu.

Glave ce nam doci ovakvi k'o Slavisa i Vili, sto su sad ovde, sad onde

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2 minutes ago, Sunshine State said:

 

A i obecala sam nekim ovde da cu malo smirivati situaciju, sto ne znaci da smete da skidate maske, ne perete ruke i ne drzite distancu.

Glave ce nam doci ovakvi k'o Slavisa i Vili, sto su sad ovde, sad onde

Potpuno se slažem, takvo neodgovorno ponašanje pojedinaca moramo da osudimo. Drugarice Vili i druže Slave, na sledećem partijskom sastanku Vox ćelije očekujem da se javite u tački broj 3 samokritika.
idem da operem ruke 🙂

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21 minutes ago, Sunshine State said:

 

Ma znam!

Isto kao sto je rano da prognoziramo pomor, jos je ranije da kazemo da je bezopasan!

 

A i obecala sam nekim ovde da cu malo smirivati situaciju, sto ne znaci da smete da skidate maske, ne perete ruke i ne drzite distancu.

Glave ce nam doci ovakvi k'o Slavisa i Vili, sto su sad ovde, sad onde

Doslo vrijeme da su i meni naredili da nosim masku na radnom mjestu. Naopako.😒

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1 hour ago, urosg3 said:

Mislim da je, bez zezanja rano za svaku prognozu. Treba još dobar mesec da svodimo nekakav račun ili šanse. Sunčice ovo kao Simpsonov paradoks.

 

Mada, ovaj deo je znacajan - uporedjuju s necim sto moze biti uporedivo:

 

"nege iznosila samo 6,3% – što je veoma nisko u poređenju sa istim periodom kada se zemlja suočavala sa vrhuncem vezanim za Delta varijantu u julu..."

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3 minutes ago, Sunshine State said:

 

Mada, ovaj deo je znacajan - uporedjuju s necim sto moze biti uporedivo:

 

"nege iznosila samo 6,3% – što je veoma nisko u poređenju sa istim periodom kada se zemlja suočavala sa vrhuncem vezanim za Delta varijantu u julu..."

Sve izgleda na prvi pogled super. čak sam optimista iskreno. Ali Marfi ne spava, već kopa rupu negde da u nju upadnem, tako da moram da se pazim 🙂

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Neodgovorno je to što izjavljuje. Mnogo veći autoriteti od njega ne usuđuju se da otpišu omikron. Pritom iznosi i neistine.

 

Quote

Mikrobiolog Milanko Šekler ocenio je da je pojava omikron soja koronavirusa po svoj prilici korak u korist populacije, a na štetu virusu, jer daje mnogo blažu kliničku sliku.

On je za novi broj nedeljnika Ekspres rekao da je broj osoba zaraženih novim sojem u Južnoj Africi drastično skočio prethodnih nedelja, ali da su linije smrtnosti i hospitalizacije „potpuno ravne“.

https://rs.n1info.com/vesti/sekler-omikron-korak-u-korist-populacije-a-na-stetu-virusu/

 

Smrtnost zasad ne raste značajno, ali hospitalizacije i te kako rastu. Levi breg je delta, desna uzbrdica je omikron. Gore levo su slučajevi, gore desno hospitalizacije, dole desno smrtni ishodi.

 

9MqIuKL.png

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-04-08..latest&uniformYAxis=0&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Cases%2C+hospital+admissions%2C+ICU+patients%2C+and+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~ZAF

Edited by erwin
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Gauteng 10.12. vs 8.12.
Hospitalizacije 2512 vs 1990 (rast od 26% - odgovara vremenu dupliranja od oko 6 dana)
Na kiseoniku 331 vs 280 (rast od 18% - odgovara vremenu dupliranja od oko 8 dana)
Na respiratoru 69 vs 58 (rast od 19% - odgovara vremenu dupliranja od oko 8 dana)

 

Broj umrlih za dva dana: 54, tj. dnevni prosek 27
Broj umrlih za 10 dana pre toga: 124, tj. dnevni prosek 12,4

I smrtnost očigledno raste.

 

Izvor:
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

 

Slike u spoileru:

Spoiler

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WdqYAkH.png

 

 

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