Bliski Istok

[erwin]

 

[erwin]

Quote

 

OPINION - GUEST ESSAY BY R. DAVID HARDEN*
Israel Could Be Walking Into a Trap in Gaza
Oct. 11, 2023

Four days after Hamas’s attack, Israel appeared poised to order a full-scale ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.

With more than 1,000 killed in Israel and 2,600 wounded in the deadliest incursion on Israeli territory in its history, the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under enormous pressure to send its forces into the enclave. It has already responded with airstrikes that have killed more than 900 Palestinians in Gaza.

Before going any further, Israel must consider that it may be walking into a Gaza trap. Here is why.

Hamas knew that the attack on Saturday would give Mr. Netanyahu little choice but to retaliate with a ground invasion, and it knows that the Israel Defense Forces’ technology and military superiority would offer little advantage on the crowded streets of Gaza City; in Jabalia, Gaza’s largest refugee camp; or through Hamas’s labyrinth of underground tunnels. Gaza, 140 square miles with a population of more than two million, is one of the most densely populated places on earth.

It appears Hamas wants to draw Israeli soldiers into a quagmire, as Hezbollah did in Southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000. After years of fighting, Israel suffered a humiliating and chaotic withdrawal, leaving an empowered and threatening Hezbollah on its northern border.

Why might Hamas want to draw the Israel Defense Forces into a bloody ground battle? Hamas is the uncontested power in Gaza, though elections have not been held since 2006. The Palestinian Authority; its main political party, Fatah; the business community; civil society; and family clan leaders cannot effectively challenge Hamas, which has become only stronger after each successive conflict with Israel. Despite an Israeli blockade and round-the-clock surveillance, Hamas has apparently been able to build and buy more rockets, steadily improve their range and accuracy, provide offensive combat training for its fighters and develop an intelligence network sophisticated and far-reaching enough to launch a simultaneous assault on 22 Israeli locations. Hamas surely believes it can defeat the Israelis on its home turf in a war of attrition.

Hamas also stands to expand its political credibility in the West Bank if Israel invades Gaza, particularly if Israeli advances stall. Many Palestinians in the West Bank already regard the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, as corrupt, enfeebled and unable to realize the aspirations of its people. Israel’s July incursion into the West Bank city of Jenin further highlighted that the government of the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, can neither protect the people of Jenin nor provide a vision of a more hopeful future. If Israel invades Gaza, Hamas may have the public support to challenge the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and potentially assume leadership as the sole representative of the Palestinian people.

In the broader region, Hamas can also count on its ally Hezbollah. The day after the Hamas attack in southern Israel, Hezbollah, presumably in an attempt to test the readiness of Israeli forces, engaged in fighting with the Israeli military along the northern border near Shebaa Farms, land that is controlled by Israel but claimed by Lebanon. Hezbollah may seek to gain advantage if Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank.

Despite its grotesque atrocities against civilians, Hamas may have already reset the political realignment in the Middle East by disrupting prospective diplomatic talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But if Gaza were now to escalate into a protracted ground war, Hamas could also undermine the Abraham Accords, which established agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and break the trend of increasing Arab-Israeli normalization. The Palestinian Authority was unable to block the Abraham Accords, but Hamas could still unwind them.

Israel, of course, can count on U.S. support as it takes its next steps. The Biden administration has sent a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, in what it has said is a “deterrence posture” that will provide the Israel Defense Forces with “additional equipment and resources, including munitions.” The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel immediately after President Biden’s news conference on Tuesday.

Over the next week or so, Israel could destroy much of Hamas’s infrastructure. The Israel Defense Forces will channel the outrage of the nation if it launches a ground invasion of Gaza and will exact an enormous price for Hamas’s massacre in the Kfar Aza kibbutz. And yet operationally, Hamas complicates the Israel Defense Forces’ freedom of action, given that it holds at least 150 hostages. If a ground war drags on, Israel would make battlefield gains but almost certainly fail to destroy Hamas’s governing ideology or the Palestinians’ unrealized aspirations for statehood.

To avoid the Gaza trap, Israel needs Arab allies on the ground and in the region. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Jordan have all regarded Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Muslim Brotherhood as a collective strategic threat. To gain the support of the key regional leaders, Israel will have to offer major security concessions and intelligence in the event of a wider war with Iran and set a meaningful and clear political horizon for a post-Abbas, post-Hamas Palestinian state. Yet Mr. Netanyahu faces a steep credibility gap both domestically and with Israel’s Arab neighbors. Only a true unity government may be able to blunt the Hamas threat with breakthrough diplomacy in the region. That success might cost him his job.

The days ahead will be bloody and difficult for Israelis and Palestinians. Hamas may well have set a trap if it induces an Israeli invasion of Gaza. Before Israel makes that call, it needs to have a strategy for exiting Gaza and a plan for the day after. An Israeli miscalculation in Gaza could trigger a crisis in the Middle East that lasts for generations.

 

* R. David Harden is a former assistant administrator at USAID’s bureau for democracy, conflict and humanitarian assistance; USAID mission director to the West Bank and Gaza; and senior adviser to President Barack Obama’s special envoy for Middle East peace.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/11/opinion/international-world/gaza-israel-palestinians-invasion.html

[erwin]

 

  

Quote

Israel's new war cabinet vows to wipe Hamas off the earth

"We are fighting a cruel enemy, worse than ISIS," Netanyahu said alongside Gantz and Gallant, comparing the group's attack with brutal killings carried out by Islamic State.
Gallant, the defence minister, said: "We will wipe this thing called Hamas, ISIS-Gaza, off the face of the earth. It will cease to exist."
Gantz, a former Israeli defence chief and general, said it was a time to join together and win. "There is a time for peace and a time for war. Now is a time for war," he said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-gantz-agree-form-emergency-israel-government-statement-2023-10-11/

Edited October 12, 2023 by erwin

[Selina]

9 hours ago, alpaka Bereta Sida said:

 

Koliko je Yiddish uopce slican danasnjem njemackom? 

 

 

Jiddisch je zapadnogermanski jezik, Judistika se studira u okviru Germanistike.
Ima puno reci iz slovenskih jezika ( dos vevrikl = veverica, koval= kovac), a i sintaksu

su prilagodili slovenskim jezicima.

[erwin]

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by erwin

[erwin]

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by erwin

[Kooineeperk]

9 hours ago, shonke said:

Kako mislimo da se uništi Hamas (da li ima neko ko smatra da ne treba da nestane takva teroristička organizacija) a da se ne uprljaju ruke?  Nisam video ni jedan predlog šta sad da se radi. Realan predlog a ne miss universe spisak želja.

 

Ja stvarno ne bih voleo da palestinska deca i žene stradaju. Opet, nemam ideju kako da se rešiš hamasa a bez toga nema mira tamo. Zid ne pomaže, oni kopaju tunele, prave rakete, planiraju i vežbaju upade (jbt, koristili su paraglajdere!!!), finansira ih Iran i obučava.

 

Šta bi neko od vas, da je na mestu BN, kao šef države uradido, sada, posle 7.10?

 

 

Nisam nikakav vojni strucnjak, vec kao neko ko je ljubitelj dobrih kompjuterskih strategija mogu da stvorim neku ideju za koju mislim da bi mogla da osluzi svrsi. A ovo nije igra, znam... Ipak ako moram, ja bih to ovako. Pretpostavimo da nema nikakve sanse da neka mirovna misija zapocne, sada pogotvo nema sansi za to. Ovo je otislo predaleko za tako nesto. 

 

Ne znam mnogo o samoj Gazi i gde je sta tamo, vidim samo ono sto vidim na google mapama i ocito je vrlo gusto naseljeno sto otezava bilo kakvu brzu akciju, ali ja bih nakon kontrolisane vazdusne kampanje, ispratio to kopnenom kampanjom prolaska kroz celu Gazu i neutralisanja maksimalnog broja Hamasovih boraca i njihovih postrojenja i stabova. 

 

Izrael je jaka vojna sila, barem u tom regionu. Imaju i visoko obucene vojnike i naourzanje, ozbiljne tenkove. Sigurno i mnogo napredne tehnologije za nadgledanje, dronovi, bespilotne letelice... 

 

Najpre bih krenuo po sredini Gaze, da je podelim na dva dela, tu negde pri sredini je neka reka, mada pre ce biti neki kanal, i to bih iskoristio kao prirodnu granicu. Wadi se valjda zove. Tu je sirina Gaze 6km mada je kanal krivudav ali treba obezbediti koridor od hajde neka je i 10km i napraviti tampon zonu sirine 2 km i kontrolisati je tako da nema nikakvog protoka ljudi. 

 

Onda bih krenuo od granice sa Egiptom i prosao opet skroz do obale, to je nekih 12km u tom delu, najsiri deo Gaze. To je da se spreci bezanje terorista u Egipat. I onda bih sa svih strana, od ove napravljene tampon zone u sredini krenuo ka granici sa Egiptom i obnuto, od Egipta krenuo ka tampon zoni u sredini, uz podrsku sa strane, kako sa mora tako i od strane zidina. 

 

Prevrnuo bih svaku kucu koja je potencijalna fabrika oruzja. U kuce iz koje se ispali metak, legitimno je pucati. Nazalost bice tu i civila koji su za Hamas, ne moraju nuzno biti Hamasovi ljudi ali s obzirom na snimke koje sam video, bice onih koji su spremni i kamenom i motkom da krenu na IDF. To su legitimne civilne mete. 

 

Nakon sto bih ocistio tu "juznu" zonu Gaze, krenuo bih na sever po istom principu. Sama Gaza kao grad ce biti izazov da se preceslja, najvece je naseljeno mesto, verovatno ima i najvise Hamasovaca a i njegovih podrzavaoca ali mora da se proceslja. Ako je moguce i u isto vreme krenuti od tampon zone i prema jugu i prema severu, to bi bilo najbolje, ne znam koliko ljudstva i naoruzanja je potrebno za tako nesto.

 

Gaza mora da se ocisti od Hamasa koliko god je to moguce, kako bi se nesto promenilo u Gazi, sa sto manje civila koji ce stradati, biti osteceni na bilo koji nacin, jer oni koji budu usteceni a nisu za Hamas, videce Izrael kao neprijatelja. Masovno bombardovanje nije nacin. Ukidanje vode i struje nije nacin. 

[McLeod]

Ni najveci srpski nacionalisti nemaju ovako iskrivljen pogled na stvarnost kao ovi kvaziobjektivni Palestinci.

 

Ne znam kako je nije sramota da kaze da su Palestinci pod kolonijalnom okupacijom.

 

Povukli se iz Gaze i pustili ih da izaberu vodjstvo, a oni izabrali teroriste. Pokusavaju da se dogovore decenijama, svaki prekid pregovora je bio zbog palestinske strane, podbodene arapskim saveznicima.

 

Bratski Egipat podigao zid visok 10 metara da ih spreci da ulaze u njihovu zemlju.

 

Sramotne izjave.

[erwin]

 

[Jezebel]

Krenulo je antisemitisko divljanje po srpskim socijalnim mrezama, botovi se razdivljali a tek ce da divljaju - stigle direktive iz majcice RT svojim srpskim medijskim otiracima za cipele. Poceli su jos sa Ukrajinom, Zelenskim i Son Penom bez zadrske sa pezorativima zato sto su Jevreji. 

MA TERAJTE SE U MAJCINU ONU ODVRATNU POLTRONSKU ZLU i PRIGLUPU! 

[erwin]

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by erwin

[Dzoni_m]

17 minutes ago, erwin said:

 

Ha. Jesam li rekao. 

 

Na kraju ce opet Izrael da popusti, progutace zrtve, ovi ce mozda da vrate nazad izmrcvaljene iz zlostavljane zarobljenike, za uzvrat ce im opet pustiti vodu i struju i na tome ce se zavristi, zbog pritiska i "civilnih zrtava". A za par meseci, do godine opet ce HAMAS da uradi isto. 

 

Kako rekohse, zato sto je Izrael demokratska i civilizovana drzava. Zato ce im opet decu ubijati. Ali oni da pokusaju da rese HAMAS, ratni zlocin. 

[erwin]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dzoni_m]

@erwin znamo da koristimo Twitter. Ne vidim tvoju svrhu kacenja svega i svacega. Svaki tvoj post je isto. Kacenje externih linkova. 

[Selina]

8 minutes ago, Dzoni_m said:

Ha. Jesam li rekao. 

 

Na kraju ce opet Izrael da popusti, progutace zrtve, ovi ce mozda da vrate nazad izmrcvaljene iz zlostavljane zarobljenike, za uzvrat ce im opet pustiti vodu i struju i na tome ce se zavristi, zbog pritiska i "civilnih zrtava". A za par meseci, do godine opet ce HAMAS da uradi isto. 

 

Kako rekohse, zato sto je Izrael demokratska i civilizovana drzava. Zato ce im opet decu ubijati. Ali oni da pokusaju da rese HAMAS, ratni zlocin. 

No pasaran. Zlocin je uzasan, besmislen, nije samo krvav pir u pitanju nego i uzasno ponizavanje ljudi. Taoc je i jedna zena od 90 godina sa

tetovazom iz Auschwitza, taoc je i bolesna , stara zena u invalidskim kolicima kojoj su i krilo stavili palestinsku zastavu i kalasnikov

i naredili joj da vice Alah je veliki. To su stvari i pojave preko kojih se ne prelazi tek tako na dnevni red.

[erwin]

 

 

56% believe Netanyahu should resign immediately after the war is done.

[Beonegro]

12 minutes ago, Dzoni_m said:

@erwin znamo da koristimo Twitter. Ne vidim tvoju svrhu kacenja svega i svacega. Svaki tvoj post je isto. Kacenje externih linkova. 

Ne znamo i ne zanima nas

[Beonegro]

41 minutes ago, Kooineeperk said:

ja bih to ovako

 

I šta bi radio kad bi prvog dana izraelska vojska imala trocifrene gubitke, pošto bi sigurno imali toliko poginulih i ranjenih? Ili kad bi, nakon takvih gubitaka, isplivali snimci kako izraelski vojnici izvlače ljude iz zgrada iz kojih je pucano na njih i strijeljaju po kratkom postupku? 

 

Ovaj članak o Gazi kao Hamasovoj klopci za Cahal je izuzetno inteligentan i realan, trošak (ljudski i finansijski) okupacije i držanja pod okupacijom dva miliona ljudi je nepodnošljiv za Izrael, čak i neuporedivo veće SAD su pokazale u Iraku i Avganistanu da ne mogu to da izdrže. Rešenja za Izrael su ili da ih sve pobije(što bi takođe bilo preskupo rešenje po pitanju međunarodne pozicije Izraela), ili da pregovara.

[erwin]

57 minutes ago, McLeod said:

Pokusavaju da se dogovore decenijama, svaki prekid pregovora je bio zbog palestinske strane

 

Aha, zato su Amerikanci morali da preko 50 puta stave veto na rezolucije Saveta bezbednosti UN u kojima se kritikuje izraelska silna želja za dogovaranjem. Ceo svet je protiv dogovora, samo se Izraelci i Ameri trude. Koja orvelovština.

 

6 minutes ago, Beonegro said:

Rešenja za Izrael su ili da ih sve pobije(što bi takođe bilo preskupo rešenje po pitanju međunarodne pozicije Izraela), ili da pregovara.

 

Koliko ja vidim, ići će na to da proteraju celokupno stanovništvo Pojasa Gaze, delom vojno a delom tako što će ih ostaviti bez ikakvih uslova za život.

Edited October 12, 2023 by erwin

[Jurgen]

3 minutes ago, erwin said:

 

Aha, zato su Amerikanci morali da preko 50 puta stave veto na rezolucije Saveta bezbednosti UN u kojima se kritikuje izraelska silna želja za dogovaranjem. Ceo svet je protiv dogovora, samo se Izraelci i Ameri trude. Koja orvelovština.

 

 

Koliko ja vidim, ići će na to da ih sve proteraju.

 

U more?

 

Ja stvarno ne vidim gde moze tih 2 miliona nesrecnih ljudi da ode iz Gaze. Mislim da bi potpuna deportacija koju bi organizovao Izrael bila katastrofa, etnicko ciscenje i ogromno ponizenje na koje druge muslimanske zemlje ne bi mogle da zatvore oci. 

[McLeod]

Resenje bi bilo da se Gaza sravni sa zemljom, a Egipat prihvati izbeglice. Samo sto to bratski Egipat nece uraditi.

 

Naravno, Nirnberski proces i najstroze kazne po izraelskom pravu za sve teroriste koje uhvate zive.

[Beonegro]

7 minutes ago, erwin said:

Koliko ja vidim, ići će na to da ih sve proteraju, delom vojno a delom tako što će ih ostaviti bez ikakvih uslova za život.

 

Ne vidim gdje će da ih protjeraju, Egipat ih neće, a nema ni sredstva da primi te ljude, plus što mislim da Hamas ne bi ni dopustio civilima masovnu bježaniju, jer bi to njih ostavilo na čistini.

[erwin]

34 minutes ago, Dzoni_m said:

@erwin znamo da koristimo Twitter. Ne vidim tvoju svrhu kacenja svega i svacega. Svaki tvoj post je isto. Kacenje externih linkova. 

 

Jasno, ne pasuju ti ove informacije u crno-beli okvir koji si napravio pa ne bi da ih gledaš na forumu.

[Selina]

4 minutes ago, Jurgen said:

 

U more?

 

Ja stvarno ne vidim gde moze tih 2 miliona nesrecnih ljudi da ode iz Gaze. Mislim da bi potpuna deportacija koju bi organizovao Izrael bila katastrofa, etnicko ciscenje i ogromno ponizenje na koje druge muslimanske zemlje ne bi mogle da zatvore oci. 

Izrael uopste ne zeli taj deo. Zasto bi ih deportovao?. Izrael je deportovao, iselio silom ( uglavnom) Jevreje koji su tu decenijama ziveli.

Ima strasnih slika gde izraelska vojska  prilicno surovo odvlaci Jevreje iz Gaze. Gaza je etnicki cista, Izraelu bi bilo najdraze

da se pridruze recimo Egiptu, ali njih niko nece.

[Beonegro]

1 minute ago, McLeod said:

Resenje bi bilo da se Gaza sravni sa zemljom, a Egipat prihvati izbeglice. Samo sto to bratski Egipat nece uraditi.

Ovo je nedostojno tvog forumskog opusa.