Rat u Ukrajini

[303]

Rokanje po železnici se nastavlja, ovog puta podstanica u kropotkinu.

 

 

[Anduril]

Da, izgleda da svake noci nesto vazno biva pogodjeno i to se izgleda ponavlja vise puta dok meta ne bude van upotrebe na dug rok. Pogodjena je recimo ponovo pumpna stanica Unecha naftovoda Druzba, i to se sada ponavlja svakih deset dana. Kao i sa rafinerijama, ako se nastavi ovako, opravke nisu vise moguce u kratkom roku. Ovakvo repetitivno gadjanje strateske infrastrukture jeste glavna odlika strateskih vazdusnih ofanziva, samo sto to glupavi mediji jos nisu primetili. Obicno primecuju stvari od mnogo manjeg znacaja kao nedavni “proboj” kod Pokrovska. Ovakve vazdusne kampanje su mnogo efektivnije nego kopnene ofanzive jer unistavaju ili sprecavaju koriscenje mnogo veceg kontingenta snaga protivnika.

Vec sada je navodno 20% ukupnih ruskih kapaciteta produkcije goriva van stroja, a u celoj oblasti od 1000 km blizu Ukrajine verovatno vise od 50%. Kad to dostigne 90% i u kombinaciji sa udarima po zeleznici u istoj oblasti, ceo region ce biti u logistickom kolapsu. Regio je suvise velik za snadbevanje kamionima, a mreza puteva je rudimentarna. Izgleda da su Ukrajinci dobili zeleno svetlo za ovu ofanzivu i od Evrope ali verovatno i od Trampa - imaju sada svoje kapacitete i mogu ovako verovatno mesecima, a rizik je manji za saveznike koji nisu hteli da zavrse rat slicnom kampanjom jos proleca/leta 2023. Tada ukrajinska kopnena ofanziva prakticno nije imala sanse jer nije bilo pripreme kampanjom iz vazduha od nekoliko meseci pre toga koja je bila neophodna da se zaustavi gradjenje utvrdjenja i da se kolabira logistika. Sada ce cena za Putina da raste eksponencijalno, Moskvu verovatno nece dirati niti je to potrebno jer ce kolaps jugozapadne Rusije biti sasvim dovoljan da se razmisli o kraju rata.

Edited yesterday at 09:31 AM by Anduril

[djura.net]

Ocigledno ce dolazeca zima biti ozbiljan problem i izazov

 

cnn

 

Putin seems to have other ideas: to break the will of Ukraine over the frigid winter season that is fast approaching. It’s a crude strategy that aims to present a stark choice for Ukrainians: accept my demands or risk freezing to death in your homes.

 

Putin has tried this before, over the last two winters, and failed due in part to a global effort led by the United States to sustain Ukraine’s resiliency during the heating season. But as this winter approaches, there are questions of whether the United States will do so again.

 

This effort was led by President Biden’s energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, well before the war started, requiring coordination with multiple European allies, some of whom were skeptical and did not believe that Russia would in fact invade. Ukraine’s disconnection from the Russian grid and connection to the EU grid was completed hours before Russia’s first missile salvos were launched against Ukrainian cities on February 24, 2022.

 

This intensive global effort combined with some relatively mild winters helped Ukraine get through somewhat unscathed. This year could be different, for at least three reasons. First, current weather models (no doubt studied by Putin) predict a mild start to the winter but then a historically frigid January and February. Second, as Russia has shown over the course of this year, it has vastly increased its drone supply with support from Iran, as well as its more limited but still plentiful missile stockpile. Third, there is no immediate sign that Washington will mount the effort as was done before.

 

The most recent attack targeted electrical substations, gas transportation facilities, and coal plants required for the heating season. The attacks, causing power outages for over 100,000 households across Ukraine, were consistent with the pattern seen in past years and Russia’s focus on the civilian energy sector, but with far greater frequency. Ukraine’s energy ministry counts nearly 3,000 such attacks this year alone, part of what it calls Russia’s “deliberative policy of destroying Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure ahead of the heating season.” Such attacks in the first two years of the war were in the hundreds.