Covid-19 / SARS-Cov2 - naučne/medicinske informacije i analize

[Sunshine State]

5 hours ago, sodavoda said:

Investigating...

Mislim da nije prokomentarisan clanak:

 

During the winter seasons 2014/15 and 2016/17, an excess of all-cause mortality was reported in Europe (Mølbak et al., 2015, Vestergaard et al., 2017). In both seasons, the predominant influenza virus strain circulating in Europe was A/H3N2, which is the strain most commonly associated with influenza mortality in the elderly (Vestergaard et al., 2017, ECDC/WHO, 2017, Rizzo et al., 2007). In Italy, the 2014/15 season was characterized by a co-circulation of A/H1N1pdm09 (52%) and A/H3N2 (41%) strains, while during the 2016/17 season, the A/H3N2 virus predominated (93%) (NIH, 2018).

In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. A mortality rate of 10.7 per 1,000 inhabitants was observed in the winter season 2014/2015 (more than 375,000 deaths in absolute terms), corresponding to an estimated 54,000 excess deaths (+9.1%) as compared to 2014 (Signorelli and Odone, 2016), representing the highest reported mortality rate since the Second World War in Italy (UN, 2019). Although the above-described excess mortality created concern among researchers, health authorities and public health experts, it has been challenging to identify its

[sodavoda]

Prave velike greske s respiratorima...

[Eddard]

Komentar o nošenju maski iz Lancet Respiratory Medicine
 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Eddard

[Tomiprunet]

1 hour ago, sodavoda said:

Prave velike greske s respiratorima...

 

Ovo sam vec cuo negde , da kinezi ne preporucuju respiratore, vec jednostavno prozracenost prostorija

 

Da li je neko pomislio na PROMAJA ? 

Edited March 24, 2020 by I, Ja Sam Laki

[Sector]

Sad ni respiratori ne valjaju. Koliko doktora i svaki ima neku svoju teoriju. 

[Tomiprunet]

4 minutes ago, Sector said:

Sad ni respiratori ne valjaju. Koliko doktora i svaki ima neku svoju teoriju. 

 

Fazon je u tome sto jos niko nema zvanicno, sve su to teorije. Ne znam da li si pogledao video?

Mislim, da ne bi trebalo da se iznose u vestima ili na drustvenim mrezama o mogucim lekovima u borbi protiv korone virusa, sve dok to ne bude 100% potvrdjenio.

ovako imamo slucajeve da se ljudi lece na svoju ruku, kao oni ameri sto su se otrovali uzimajuci hlorokin za akvarijume

[Sunshine State]

2 minutes ago, I, Ja Sam Laki said:

 

Fazon je u tome sto jos niko nema zvanicno, sve su to teorije. Ne znam da li si pogledao video?

Mislim, da ne bi trebalo da se iznose u vestima ili na drustvenim mrezama o mogucim lekovima u borbi protiv korone virusa, sve dok to ne bude 100% potvrdjenio.

ovako imamo slucajeve da se ljudi lece na svoju ruku, kao oni ameri sto su se otrovali uzimajuci hlorokin za akvarijume

You can't fix stupid!

 

Pa da mi milion predsednika kaze da popijem tablete za ciscenje bazena, mislim da (pri zdravoj pameti) ne bih!

 

Edit: evo govore ljudima da ostanu u kucama, pa sto to ne poslusaju?

Edited March 24, 2020 by Sunshine State

[Kronostime]

6 minutes ago, Sunshine State said:

You can't fix stupid!

 

Pa da mi milion predsednika kaze da popijem tablete za ciscenje bazena, mislim da (pri zdravoj pameti) ne bih!

 

Edit: evo govore ljudima da ostanu u kucama, pa sto to ne poslusaju?

Jedna tableta za bazene od 20 mg cisti 30 m³ vode - vodite racuna o proporciji, majkumu.

Najbolje je da kupite Micropur tablete - ista stvar samo sto je tableta predvidjena za 1-2 L vode.

[Sunshine State]

1 minute ago, Kronostime said:

Jedna tableta za bazene od 20 mg cisti 30 m³ vode - vodite racuna o proporciji, majkumu.

Najbolje je da kupite Micropur tablete - ista stvar samo sto je tableta predvidjena za 1-2 L vode.

Lik je pio tablete za ciscenje akvarijuma/bazena kao prevenciju korone.

 

Zato i kazem, antimalarici, i ako imaju benefite kao deo terapije u lcenju korone, treba da budu u kontrolisanim uslovima, od strane lekara

[Kronostime]

1 minute ago, Sunshine State said:

Lik je pio tablete za ciscenje akvarijuma/bazena kao prevenciju korone.

 

Zato i kazem, antimalarici, i ako imaju benefite kao deo terapije u lcenju korone, treba da budu u kontrolisanim uslovima, od strane lekara

Glupost i idiotluk se ne mogu leciti.

Imam kod sebe Survival set u kome upravo imam dve table po 50 tabletica Micropura - cisto da se nadje za banzanje po divljini.

[Sunshine State]

Zanimljiv clanak, isecci ovde:

 

Most people are focused on the total number of patients, new patients and deaths worldwide. These numbers are ascending at a deadly pace, literally, and looking at the graphs gives a sense that they are climbing rapidly toward the end of the world. However, the specific data of each country, when examined separately, suggest otherwise. Although this is an early observation, it appears this disease has a periodicity of a classic Gaussian bell-curve shape wherever it appears.

Ignoring both tails of the graph, it indicates that this bell's life cycle is around six to eight weeks, with its peak appearing after about two to four weeks from the time when incidents begin to occur at a substantial rate.

Many doubt the Chinese figures and claim that the Chinese implemented extreme quarantine that cannot be performed elsewhere. But let’s take a look at the Republic of Korea. South Korea implemented a strategy of large-scale testing instead of massive quarantine. Dozens of daily new cases started to appear around February 20. By March 3, the daily rate had reached a peak of approximately 850 new cases. Since then it has been declining, and on March 15, it stabilized back at less than 100 new cases per day (with only two exceptions). Essentially, within five weeks, the significant level of the epidemic in Korea was suppressed and reached a daily rate that no longer presents a major challenge to the health system.

 

 

[Asterion]

 

[momohyoideus]

Neko je izbacio model rasta na ovom sajtu: https://korona.org.rs/?fbclid=IwAR1FLfAtXJNsu7Cy7vTAJmwa42U4TzBjOTx18gc8gLxAKtBNjNdKE3Va9OI

 

Nemam pojma da li je dobar.

[Prijatelj Mitar]

10 minutes ago, momohyoideus said:

Neko je izbacio model rasta na ovom sajtu: https://korona.org.rs/?fbclid=IwAR1FLfAtXJNsu7Cy7vTAJmwa42U4TzBjOTx18gc8gLxAKtBNjNdKE3Va9OI

 

Nemam pojma da li je dobar.

 

Ne znam, meni deluje potpuno nerealno da se ovde stigne do brojke od milion zarazenih za mesec i po dana. 

[Angelia]

12 hours ago, Sunshine State said:

Zanimljiv clanak, isecci ovde:

 

Most people are focused on the total number of patients, new patients and deaths worldwide. These numbers are ascending at a deadly pace, literally, and looking at the graphs gives a sense that they are climbing rapidly toward the end of the world. However, the specific data of each country, when examined separately, suggest otherwise. Although this is an early observation, it appears this disease has a periodicity of a classic Gaussian bell-curve shape wherever it appears.

Ignoring both tails of the graph, it indicates that this bell's life cycle is around six to eight weeks, with its peak appearing after about two to four weeks from the time when incidents begin to occur at a substantial rate.

Many doubt the Chinese figures and claim that the Chinese implemented extreme quarantine that cannot be performed elsewhere. But let’s take a look at the Republic of Korea. South Korea implemented a strategy of large-scale testing instead of massive quarantine. Dozens of daily new cases started to appear around February 20. By March 3, the daily rate had reached a peak of approximately 850 new cases. Since then it has been declining, and on March 15, it stabilized back at less than 100 new cases per day (with only two exceptions). Essentially, within five weeks, the significant level of the epidemic in Korea was suppressed and reached a daily rate that no longer presents a major challenge to the health system.

 

 

Ovaj deo je najbitniji:

 

It is reasonable to assume that the various measures taken by different countries and the different conditions may impact the length of the wave. However, if the model correctly represents the cycle of the coronavirus, then this pandemic, subject to such measures, is one that only lasts several weeks in each location it strikes.Finally, we might be seeing that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and that the tunnel is not that long.

[𝓑𝓪𝓫𝔂]

Ovo se uglavnom tice stanja u Americi, ali u dosta zemalja je problem manje vise slican. Clanak iz Chicago Tribune:

 

Loss of smell may be one of the first symptoms of COVID-19.

 

Quote

As part of a weekly, hourlong webinar focused on COVID-19, the Buffett Institute for Global Affairs at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine hosted Dr. Robert Murphy, executive director of the Institute and a professor of infectious diseases, to provide insight into the virus and its effects. He’s an expert in HIV infection, viral hepatitis, antiviral drug development and global health.

Murphy’s presentation, “Blunting the Impact of COVID-19,” refers to the graph of the line that marks the passage of time and the number of fatalities. The higher the bump, the more deaths. “Blunting” the bump means decreasing the number of deaths. Murphy discussed the mortality rate of coronavirus, its impact on the health care system and what measures we can take to lessen its consequences.

Here’s some of what we learned. Answers have been edited for clarity and brevity.

Q. Have we learned anything new about the virus?

A. Loss of smell may be one of the first symptoms of COVID-19.

Q. When should we expect more serious death numbers?

A. The model shows that the U.S. is in the peak infection stage, but the damage will occur later in the year. The peak damage estimate is during May through June.

Q. How many people should we be testing right now?

A. We should be testing 4,000 people in Illinois daily and 100,000 people in the United States daily. “We are not doing that,” Murphy said.

Q. Why do we keep hearing experts say that testing is important?

A. Besides identifying those who have COVID-19, there are a lot more people than we thought who have no symptoms but are infectious and spreading the disease. The only way to prevent this are mass screenings. “If we don’t do mass screenings, I think nothing else will work.” South Korea has done the most tests out of any country and has seen it pay off in blunting the curve.

Q. Do we really need such an extreme reaction?

A. “The more forceful we act now, the shorter the problem will be.” Places like South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore have been able to suppress the infection because of their strict measures.

Q. How long do we need to practice social distancing to get us through the epidemic?

A. “It’s not 15 days.” There are models that show the stricter you are, the shorter the bump. If we stop these interventions and leave it up to the states, I think we’re in a lot of trouble for the next 12 to 24 months. “If we all get on the same page, we can start seeing decline in the early to midsummer.”

Q. When will we know that shelter in place is working?

A. Public health officials are following the numbers closely. As soon as the number of new cases starts to level off, then starts to go down, we’re going in the right direction.

Q. What would happen to the hospitals if we don’t blunt the curve?

A. “We just don’t have the beds.” The intensive care units will be overwhelmed with people who need ventilators. People working in the hospitals need masks, gloves, gowns, and we don’t have the capacity today to even provide hospitals with the amount of protective equipment that is necessary. It could lead to the collapse of the hospital system. Don’t forget: Coronavirus cases would be on top of what’s already going on during a normal day in a hospital.

Q. Why is there such a huge test kit supply shortage compared with other countries like South Korea?

A. “At the beginning of this thing, we opted to make a conscientious decision not to import World Health Organization-approved tests from Asia and Europe. We insisted on making our own tests.” Those tests took weeks to make. Once they were sent out to the states, we realized they didn’t work, so all those kits came back and we had to redo it. We wasted a whole month during a crucial time period as the number of people infected doubled in some places every three days and in others, every seven days. We haven’t been able to catch up since. “It’s a war without a general.”

Q. Are there any companies in Illinois making test kits?

A. Abbott Labs could test the whole country, but they would have to put all their resources into creating testing kits and forgo everything else. They are making them, but there’s just not enough.

Q. Why is the U.S. so far behind other countries in blunting the curve?

A. The United States is not set up with a strong public health organization. Most are relegated to the states. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention gives guidance, and the states have the option of complying or not. The decision-makers are largely finance or business people. “They’re ignoring our public health experts. If that continues, we’re in big trouble.”

Q. What’s happening on the state level?

A. Governors don’t have the ability to marshal the industrial forces the way the president would be able to. Essentially, their hands are tied, so they’re competing with each other for resources.

Q. What actions could the government be taking?

A. Stricter border control, rapid testing and reenacting the Defense Production Act of 1950, which allows the government to take over industries during war or times of crises. We could direct companies to make more ventilators or personal protective equipment or reagents or test kits while requisitioning hotels and sports arenas. “It’s not popular in certain groups and maybe it’s an extreme measure, but with what’s coming up, I don’t see any way this could not be avoided.”

Q. Government leaders and Fox News seem to suggest that a lift on restrictions is coming soon. What do you think of this news?

A. I watched last night to see where this idea was coming from, “I was really horrified,” Murphy said. “If we lift up our guard now, then the coronavirus will become the No. 1 cause of death and completely overwhelm the (hospital) system.”

Q. So why stop at the national level? What is happening on the international level?

A. Combined international efforts would be best, but what international authority do we have? WHO can make recommendations but they don’t have any teeth. The United Nations can make recommendations but again, where is the teeth? “The teeth is going to be at the national level, and it’s going to depend on the quality and determination of the national leader.”

 

[Asterion]

Will the Coronavirus Ever Go Away? Here's What One of the WHO's Top Experts Thinks

[Ridji]

9 hours ago, momohyoideus said:

Neko je izbacio model rasta na ovom sajtu: https://korona.org.rs/?fbclid=IwAR1FLfAtXJNsu7Cy7vTAJmwa42U4TzBjOTx18gc8gLxAKtBNjNdKE3Va9OI

 

Nemam pojma da li je dobar.

Ko je ovo pravio?

[Asterion]

Quote

The Bedford Lab at the Fred Hutch works at the interface of evolution, epidemiology and virology

 

 

 

 

Edited March 25, 2020 by Asterion

[Prijatelj Mitar]

40 minutes ago, Ridji said:

Ko je ovo pravio?

 

Meni realnije deluje scenario da, uz sve ove mere, do pocetka maja to bude maksimalno nekih 6000 ljudi ukupno, odnosno oko 0,1 posto populacije. Mada se iskreno nadam da ce ta brojka biti manja za barem trecinu ako svest ljudi bude na visem nivou.

[Green23]

19 minutes ago, Laki21 koji lebdi said:

 

Meni realnije deluje scenario da, uz sve ove mere, do pocetka maja to bude maksimalno nekih 6000 ljudi ukupno, odnosno oko 0,1 posto populacije. Mada se iskreno nadam da ce ta brojka biti manja za barem trecinu ako svest ljudi bude na visem nivou.

Pa procene su da je trenutno zaraženo oko 3,4 hiljade ljudi.

[Vjekoslav]

 

[Prijatelj Mitar]

5 hours ago, Green23 said:

Pa procene su da je trenutno zaraženo oko 3,4 hiljade ljudi.

 

Jeste, ali ja mislim na registrovane slucajeve, naravno da do tada nece moci svi da budu "uhvaceni". Trajace ovo mozda i u toku maja ali sa prilicno manjim obimom, ako se i sama transmisija smanji ovim merama. Mislim da je realno da krajem maja virus bude "sateran u cosak" kod nas.

Naravno, ako virus nastavi da obitava medju ljudima i nakon leta, gotovo sigurno je da ce milion, a i vise miliona ljudi u Srbiji biti zarazeno u narednim godinama. Ali do tada ce verujem virus oslabiti cirkulisanjem kroz populaciju, da ce terapija biti utvrdjena, da ce vakcina biti gotova...Od septembra-oktobra ce to verovatno biti druga prica.

 

Izvinjavam se ako sam skrenuo sa teme, mozete i kolegino pitanje i moj odgovor da prebacite na odgovarajucu.

[momohyoideus]

13 hours ago, Ridji said:

Ko je ovo pravio?

Ne znam, imas e-mail pa pitaj. :)

[riviera]

Quote

Do people who survive the coronavirus become immune to it?

A recovered coronavirus patient donated plasma at the Hainan Blood Center in China in February.Credit...Xinhua/Alamy Live News

Recovered coronavirus patients appear to gain immunity to the virus, scientists say, but with some significant unknowns. Now they are testing treatments that could help end the pandemic.

On Tuesday, the Food and Drug Administration approved the use of plasma from recovered patients to treat some severe cases. And New York will begin testing serum from people who have recovered from the virus to treat those who are seriously ill.

A study in macaques infected with the new coronavirus suggested that once infected, the monkeys produce neutralizing antibodies and resist further infection. But it is unclear how long the monkeys, or people, would remain immune.

Still, even if people become reinfected, the second bout with the coronavirus would likely be much milder than the first, said Florian Krammer, a microbiologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

The quickest way to assess immunity is a test that looks for protective antibodies in the blood of people who have recovered. Antibody tests are used in a handful of countries, but are just widely coming to market in the West. Before the method can be put into wide use, scientists must address certain safety issues. Some pharmaceutical companies are hoping to sidestep some of those concerns by developing antibodies against the coronavirus in the laboratory.

VIRUS IMMUNITY

Finding people with powerful antibody responses to the coronavirus might point the way to new treatments.