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[USA] SJEDINJENE AMERIČKE DRŽAVE - unutrašnja politika i uticaj na svetska kretanja


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  On 12/12/2024 at 4:46 PM, Nek grmi jako said:
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To sve ne znači da se on obožanstvio, nego da su većina ostalih pobudalili i podetinjili. Što se balkanskog regiona tiče, to sa njegovim reizborom će vredeti jedino ako njegova administracija stvarno natera ta plemena na ovo iz teksta Novi NON-PAPER za Zapadni Balkan, zeleno svjetlo iz Washingtona za konačni rasplet

 

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Doug Ford, lokalni prototip Trump-a, najavio da ce u slucaju uvodjenja tarifa, Ontario odgovoriti zabranom isporuke energije  i minerala Americi, kao i blokiranje uvoza alkohola iz Amerike.  Ko zivi u Ontariju a voli "Little Book Chapter 8 " viski , neka kupuje sada, ima 10tak flasa u Brampton-u, u ostalim prodavnicama nestao ili ima jedna flasa...  Interesantno je da je ovaj poskupi viski prvi nestao u prodaji... Ovo je duel ekonomskih genija u najavi, jer je zbog Trump-ovih godina WWE duel iskljucen...

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Ali, majke mi mile, ovo što se sad piše o internetu i social KP, je bukvalno moja pokojna baba govorila za televiziju i zvala "tu spravu nečastivom, koja će nam svima glave doći".

Posle je noću sedela i čekala neke noćne mečeve(!??! jel se sećam dobro?) Mate Parlova i da, baba, ne deda :lol_2:

 

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Baby jel ovo izbegavamo:

 

 

FBI kaze, koji je sam sebe istrazivao 🙂, da su imali 26 informants on the ground, za January 6th, neki su izvestavali o desnim extremistima, 4 su cak usli u Capitol Hill, nijedan nije optuzen. Da li su znali da moze doci do haosa, a odbili da prijave ili posalju Nacionalnu Gardu, kako je Tramp trazio?

Svakom normalnom je jasno da takav dogadjaj nije prosao bez FBI boots on the grounds.

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  On 12/14/2024 at 2:46 AM, Angelia said:

Baby jel ovo izbegavamo:

 

 

FBI kaze, koji je sam sebe istrazivao 🙂, da su imali 26 informants on the ground, za January 6th, neki su izvestavali o desnim extremistima, 4 su cak usli u Capitol Hill, nijedan nije optuzen. Da li su znali da moze doci do haosa, a odbili da prijave ili posalju Nacionalnu Gardu, kako je Tramp trazio?

Svakom normalnom je jasno da takav dogadjaj nije prosao bez FBI boots on the grounds.

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Sta kazem na to?

 

Kazem ti 'dobro jutro' da si primetila, samo jos kad ukacis da Tramp i ostali isto krse zakon i da im niko nista ne moze i prihvatis da smo gradjani drugog reda, onda smo se razumele... Ali nekako sumnjam da ces se vratiti na ustav i kako je to sve tako uredjeno, nista ne moze da poremeti... 

 

  On 12/14/2024 at 3:38 PM, Angelia said:

E pa ajde otvori te teme, jbta ne moze o nicemu drugom a da se ti ne vratis na Trampa. Nemam pojma sta je informativno u nagradi man of the year. A Kanada je bila sala, znas ono kad se nasmejes na zezanje. Za Mexico nisam cula.

 

ajde stage je tvoj. Daj nesto od toga interesatno da se diskutuje. TDS je postao jako naporan. Sto je Kimberly idiotluk? Ne znam mnogo o njoj, osim da ima sad godine u politici, bila je zena Newsoma, pa sad valjda godinama u Trampovim kampanjama. Bila je tuzilac, radila na Foxu, I vidim ima neka optuzba za sexualno uznemiravanje assistant/zena. Osim toga I da je upropastila svoje lice, plasticnim operacijama, ne bas mnogo.

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A cemu da se vratim? Da pisem o trans osobama kako slucajno ne bi pomenula cara? 

Edited by 𝓑𝓪𝓫𝔂
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  On 12/12/2024 at 12:27 AM, zoran59 said:

 

Nisam to pitao jer je nepotrebno - svima je cena goriva vazna, normalno. Problem je drugde. On jeste debil kao i ljudi iz videa koji je okacila Baby. Resavali bi svetske probleme, mada ne znaju gde je taj svet. Moj brat je rodjen u Schwabisch Hall, u Nemackoj (tetka je bila gastarbajterka a techa americki vojnik u tamosnjoj NATO bazi) - ali ne moze da prepozna ili nadje Nemacku na geografskoj karti. Teca je ubrzo demobilisam i vratili/doselili su u ruralnu Alabamu.

 

On ima minimum informacija (ako mu naidje nesto, neki link od drugara koji ga salje na Fox laprdanje). Pornografija mu je bitnija od vesti.

I zato zakljucuje da je benzin jeftiniji ako je Trump predsednik, pa je tako glasao. Nalazi vezu tamo gde je nema.

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Ok, da se vratim na ovo obecala sam ti odgovor. Mozda je tvoj brat/bratic debil, ali to ne znaci da svako ko kaze "gorivo je bilo jeftinije" nema razumne argumente. I ako saslusas dosta tih argumenata, videces kako ljudi razmisljaju, sta im je bitno. Recimo de-regulacija I drill baby drill. Utice na svetsku cenu goriva. Uz to, otvara nova moguca radna mesta u delovima zemlje kojima to treba, ruralna amerika. Nije isto kad to kaze neko u Alabami ili u PA. Ja sam mozda provela vise vremena u west PA nego mozda vecina na ovom forumu, ako ne zajedno. Ne cudi me da je Tramp tamo heroj. Oni zavise od frakinga. 

 

  On 12/12/2024 at 12:27 AM, zoran59 said:

Ekonomska situacija jeste bila bolja u prvom delu prvog predsednikovanja Trumpa - jer se nastavio trend iz predsednikovanja Obame. U drugom delu, otislo je sve u vrazju mater zbog Covida. Nije za to kriv Trump. Kako je Trump nasledio ekonomiju od Obame, tako je i Biden nasledio Covid krizu od Trumpa - sasvim nevezano za nekakvu ideologiju.

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Znaci svaki predsednik u prvom mandatu, samo nasledjuje ekonomiju prethodnog? Nista ne doprinosi?

  On 12/12/2024 at 12:27 AM, zoran59 said:

Aj'mo dalje. Brat podzava Trumpovu ideju o uvodjenu carina, misleci da ce to pomoci americkim radnicima i vratiti proizvodnju u USA.

Ma, nece, samo ce podici inflaciju i usjebati sve nas (ako Trump uspe u naumu). Ta ideja je "porez na budale" i grozna.

 

Lupicu cifre odokativno, radi primera. Americki frizider kosta $1000, a kineski ili korejski iste klase $900. Nakon uvodjenja carina, kineski ce kostati $1200. Ali americki nece ostati na $1000, nisu Ameri budale, dignuce cenu na barem $1190. I - mi obicni potrosaci smo najebali.

 

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Ok, ovde postoji ogromno nerazumevanje zasto Tramp govori o carinama. On koristi carine kao sredstvo za pregovaranje. Ti bi bio potpuno u pravu, ako Tramp misli da uvede carine kao sredstvo "da se obogatimo". Ono sto on govori, barem se nadam da pravilno razumem, a mnogi kazu da razumem, on ce da pregovara sa zemljama gde imamo deficit, ili neki drugi razlog (kao sto je imigracija), ako ne uvozite od nas dovoljno mi cemo da vam smanjimo uvoz carinama, pa je bolje da pregovarate bolji dil. Americko trziste je veliko, bitno je tim zemljama. Svaki pomak od par % je bolje. Drugo, slusala sam njegovu pricu o Whirlpool, da, jeste podiglo cene appliances, ali je spasilo dosta radnih mesta. Mislim ok, ako mislis da je ok da desetine hiljada ljudi ostanu bez posla, jer je jeftinije da kupis frizider iz Kine. Ali ne mozes da zastupas da se podigne minimum wage, a da ne izgubis radna mesta koje ce otici u zemlje gde je jeftinija radna snaga.

To je izuzetno komplexan sistem. I mozda ce neki potezi biti "hit and miss"

 

Ja nemam problem da kazem ako hoces totalno de-regulisano trziste, ok, ali onda nemoj da pricamo o minimum wage, ili Medicare i Medicaid. Hoces nove zube, idi u Tursku, jer u americi to kosta previse.

 

 

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  On 12/15/2024 at 2:35 AM, Angelia said:

Ok, da se vratim na ovo obecala sam ti odgovor. Mozda je tvoj brat/bratic debil, ali to ne znaci da svako ko kaze "gorivo je bilo jeftinije" nema razumne argumente. I ako saslusas dosta tih argumenata, videces kako ljudi razmisljaju, sta im je bitno. Recimo de-regulacija I drill baby drill. Utice na svetsku cenu goriva. Uz to, otvara nova moguca radna mesta u delovima zemlje kojima to treba, ruralna amerika. Nije isto kad to kaze neko u Alabami ili u PA. Ja sam mozda provela vise vremena u west PA nego mozda vecina na ovom forumu, ako ne zajedno. Ne cudi me da je Tramp tamo heroj. Oni zavise od frakinga. 

...................................

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Odgovor na citav post bio bio preopsiran, pa sam odabrao samo ovaj deo...

 

To je razumljivo, da ljudi (u ovom slucaju oni koji izlaze na izbore) tako razmisljaju - ali i da je to posledica nemanja dovoljno znanja, razumevanja i informacija. Pa sam ih (mozda uvredljivo i preterano) nazvao debilima.

Razloga za glasanje protiv Trumpa ima na pretek, a cena goriva nije opravdan razlog da neko glasa za njega.

 

Nisam ekonomista, ali je neko strucniji to objasnio ovde:

 

Why Trump's plan to 'drill, baby, drill' is unlikely to cut gas prices and fix inflation

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On the campaign trail, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to lower consumer prices that have soared since the pandemic, explaining how he would do so by repeating a simple mantra: Drill, baby, drill.

“At the center of our effort to bring the cost of living under control will be the all-out push to end the Biden-Harris war on American energy,” Trump said at a campaign rally Aug. 14 in Asheville, North Carolina. “We will drill, baby, drill.”

Trump is expected to speed drilling permits that took an average 258 days to complete during the Biden administration, hold permit sales more frequently and increase drilling off the U.S. coast, Reuters reported last month.

By boosting oil supplies, those steps theoretically could reduce oil and gasoline prices and help nudge down the price of groceries and other goods by cutting their transportation costs.

Can the strategy work?

It’s not likely, experts interviewed by USA TODAY say.

“It’s a world oil market that determines the supply and demand balance,” said Robert Kauffman, a Boston University professor who studies global oil markets, climate change and land use changes. A significant boost in U.S. production would trigger responses from other producers that would leave crude and gas prices roughly unchanged, he said.

Here's a closer look at the issue:

What is the actual inflation rate today?

Although annual inflation has slowed to less than 3% from a 40-year high of 9.1% in mid-2022, consumer prices are still about 20% higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic sparked a surge in consumer demand and supply chain bottlenecks.

Americans’ fury over high prices under President Joe Biden was a big reason Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential race to Trump, according to a Brookings Institution study.

“I won on groceries,” Trump told host Kristen Welker in a "Meet the Press" interview this month. “I won an election based on that. … We’re going to bring those prices way down.”

In an interview Time Magazine published Thursday as part of its announcement naming Trump Person of the Year, the incoming president appeared to walk back his pledge.

“It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” he said. “You know, it’s very hard.”

And most economists say Trump's threats to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China as soon as next month, along with other levies later, would intensify, rather than ease, price increases.

Still, Trump’s promise to chop gas prices amounts to his most specific blueprint for addressing inflation. At the August rally in Asheville, the former president said his administration would “slash (energy) prices by half within 12 months."

Trump, for example, suggested he would restart drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge after Biden canceled Trump’s leases in the environmentally sensitive region last year.

Why are US gas prices falling?

Yet pump prices already have plunged. The price of benchmark U.S. crude oil, called West Texas Intermediate, has tumbled to about $70 a barrel from $120 in June 2022, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In turn, average U.S. unleaded gasoline prices have fallen to about $3 a gallon from nearly $5, according to AAA.

Kauffman attributed the drop to record global oil production, especially in the U.S., softening energy demand in China and around the world amid slower growth, and the ability of European nations to find alternative sources to Russian oil. 

Does the US produce the most oil in the world?

The U.S., in fact, is already the world’s largest crude oil producer, churning out a record average of 13.6 million barrels a day recently, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Oil Price Information Service, a private firm. The nation turned out an average 12.9 million barrels a day of crude in 2023 and has been the world’s largest producer for the past six years, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia, EIA says.

“U.S. oil production is at an all-time high, and it has increased during the Biden administration without opening up” any new lands or waters to drilling, Kauffman said.

What is fracking in simple terms?

The EIA credits horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking – which uses water, sand and chemicals to pump oil from deep underground – with allowing producers to use fewer wells to draw much more oil from a larger area.

Much of the activity has occurred in the Bakken rock formation in North Dakota and Montana and the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

What happens to the price of oil when production increases?

Crude prices are hovering near a three-year low.  If the Trump administration made new federal land or waters available for drilling and that led producers to pump out enough additional oil to push down global and U.S. prices, “That would slow the rate at which companies drill for oil,” Kauffman said, nudging prices up again.

Adam Ferrari, CEO of Phoenix Capital Group, an oil producer in North Dakota and Montana, called the current U.S. crude oil price “a floor.” The company, he said, can make a profit as long as oil prices top about $25 a barrel. But the cost to drill a new well is about $45 to $65 a barrel, he said.

Because the company wants to cover its costs and make about a 15% profit, “if prices got any lower, we would stop producing oil” from new wells, Ferrari said.

Is it good to invest in oil exploration?

Another factor: Oil companies have become far more conservative in their capital spending.

Since the early days of the pandemic, when crude prices plummeted on weak demand, oil producers have shifted their mindset from spending heavily to drill new wells to running existing wells cost-efficiently and providing healthy returns to shareholders, analysts say.

“That drastically changed their priorities,” said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager and oil industry expert at Tortoise Capital, an investment firm. “They became disciplined in their capital spend” and focused on increasing cash flow.

Companies, of course, still need to drill new wells as existing ones deplete and meet moderately growing global demand. World crude output, now about 102 million barrels a day, is expected to increase by about 1 million barrels a day each year, Thummel said.

Ferrari said opening new federal territory to drilling could be helpful in the long term if it contains more oil per square foot than current oil fields, which would boost efficiency.

But existing fields, especially the 9,000-square-mile Bakken, provide more than enough capacity for exploration to meet projected needs – and even a spike in demand that sharply lifted prices – without making new federal land available, Thummel said. Most oil production takes place on privately owned territory, and about a quarter occurs on federal land and waters, according to Thummel and the American Petroleum Institute.

What's more, he said, a sudden rise in prices that threw the market out of balance probably would prompt an immediate boost in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC.

Does the US have enough refining capacity?

A Trump-induced surge in U.S. oil production also would create another problem. Most U.S. refineries - which turn oil into gasoline - are equipped to handle the heavy, cheaper crude the nation imports from Canada, Mexico and other countries.

As a result, the country doesn’t have enough refining capacity to absorb a fresh deluge in the light sweet crude produced domestically, Ferrari and Thummel said. New refineries would have to be built or existing facilities retrofitted, an expensive proposition, they said.

Heavy crude is denser and less expensive to purchase than light sweet, but processing it at a refinery is more difficult and costly.

That’s largely why the U.S. imports 6.5 million barrels a day of mostly heavy crude, Thummel said, even though the country seemingly makes enough oil to meet its needs. And the nation exports 4 million barrels of light sweet crude to nations whose refineries are built to handle that variety.
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izvor: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/12/15/trump-drilling-gas-prices/76931654007/?tbref=hp

 

Moj bratic to nece procitati (a i da procita, ne bi razumeo). Njemu je to predugacko, a u ilustracijama nema golih zena. I zato je debil (i glasao za Trumpa).

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Vratio bih se na ranije rasprave (periodicno se ponavljaju) o ceni zdravstva u USA.

Pojavio se prilicno dobar clanak koji to objasnjava:

 

Seven reasons why Americans pay more for health care than any other nation

link za clanak: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/12/15/why-americans-pay-more-for-health-care/76900978007/

 

(mrzi me da copypastujem citav tekst, koga zanima neka procita na linku)

 

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The nation's rising health bill affects just about everyone.

The amount working-age Americans spent on health insurance through the payroll deductions has jumped nearly three times faster than wages over the past two dozen years. Health bills are the leading cause of personal bankruptcy. And medical bills accounted for more than half of all debt on consumers credit records in 2022, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

 

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But health economists say the entire health care system, not just insurers, deserves scrutiny for runaway medical bills.

Health insurance companies took in $25 billion in profit last year, while hospitals collected an eye-popping $90 billion, Rice University economist Vivian Ho said.

 

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An MRI can cost $300 or $3,000, depending on where you get it. A colonoscopy can run you $1,000 to $10,000.

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In one study of 224 cancer drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration from 2015 through 2020, the median price for a patient was $196,000 per year.

Lawmakers have scrutinized prices of weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy. During a September hearing, Sen. Bernie Sanders grilled Novo Nordisk's top executive over why U.S. residents pay so much more for these medications than people in other countries. Although the amount consumers pay at the pharmacy is often discounted, Novo Nordisk charged $969 a month for Ozempic in the U.S. ‒ while the same drug costs $155 in Canada, $122 in Denmark, and $59 in Germany, according to a document submitted by Sanders.

 

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Shameless scamming going on. (zoranov link)

 

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  On 12/17/2024 at 4:22 PM, Angelia said:

Znaci bolnice uzele vise u profitu, a ljudi okrivljuju osiguranja. Drugo razlika u ceni moze da ima nesto sa cenom radne snage, ili birokratije, regulative, FDA cert je jos uvek daleko skuplja stvar nego CE mark.

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Pa trebali su i da kazu ko ima veci profit margin. Ako osiguranja imaju 30% -40% margin a bolnice samo 10% ili ispod onda su osiguranja pohlepnija, i onda su ljudi u pravu. Sve u svemu, ima sta da se popravi, i nije lako. 

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  On 12/17/2024 at 4:37 PM, nonick said:

 

Pa trebali su i da kazu ko ima veci profit marging. Ako osiguranja imaju 30% -40% margin a bolnice samo 10% ili ispod onda su osiguranja pohlepnija, i onda su ljudi u pravu. Sve u svemu, ima sta da se popravi, i nije lako. 

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Nemaju, ako se dobro secam osiguranja imaju 6% profit margin. Ne znam za bolnice. Btw ovaj sto je ubio CEO United, nije imao osiguranje kod United, prosto je izabrao CEO najveceg osiguranja.

 

Ima sto-sta da se popravi, ali za to nisu krivi (ili barem ne vecinski) zaposleni u osiguranju, problem je u sistemu, i to treba popravljati.

 

  On 12/17/2024 at 4:41 PM, Eddard said:

 

Vidiš ono što se uklapa u tvoj narativ. Jadna osiguranja. 

 

Pogotovo mi se sviđa onaj predlog pod brojem 2, baš me interesuje kako bi to izgledalo. Bullshit na kub. 

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Koji predlog?

Eddard, ne pricam o narativu, optuzivati samo osiguranja, koji ne prave policy, je prosto suludo. Iako ih I ja ne volim. Ali budimo realni. 

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Ova rasprava o bolnicama postaje moot point sa dolazecom administracijom:

  • Najavljeno je obustavljanje istrazivanja i razvoja lijekova i tretmana za infektivne bolesti na period od osam godina,
  • "DOGE" je najavio da ce  ukinuti ili znacajno smanjiti ukinuti mnostvo institucija javnog zdravlja,
  • Najava privatizacjie federalnih programa  - jer svi znamo da privatne kompanije imaju zdravlje kao prvi prioritet shareholder-a (cemu svjedocimo u skorasnjim vijsetima o UnitedHealth-u)
  • Restrikcije ili ukidanje obaveznih vakcinacija, 

Ove mjere ce veoma brzo iz kruga korisnika zdravstvenih usluga, odstraniti ranjive grupe koje nece moci priustiti zdravstvenu zastitu, kao i dio onih koji ce moci priustiti zdravstvenu zastitu ali ce se zbog uvjerenja trajno i dobrovoljno odstraniti iz kruga korisnika tih usluga (a i iz genetskog pool-a). 

 

Takodje, Lujzijana ima neogranicene kapacitete za proizvodnju pijavica, lokalni berberi se mnogo brze i jeftinije obrazuju od ljekara,  tako da ce cijana zdravstvenih usluga (i guzve u ER) sasvim sigurno ici dole.

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  On 12/17/2024 at 4:44 PM, Angelia said:

Nemaju, ako se dobro secam osiguranja imaju 6% profit margin. 

 

 

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Pa bas brzo googlao nesto, i kaze da neke godine im bilo 2% (ali uglavnom profit margin oko 6-8%), pa sa financijskim akrobacijama i milonima za upper managmnet moze da bude 🙂

Ja ne znam sto posto kako te mega korparacije funkionisu, ali u manjim firmamma ako imas 2% profit margin onda si jednom nogom u bankroptu ili managment ne dobija velike plate -a moze i oba 🙂

 

 

 

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  On 12/17/2024 at 5:12 PM, nonick said:

 

Pa bas brzo googlao nesto, i kaze da neke godine im bilo 2% (ali uglavnom profit margin oko 6-8%), pa sa financijskim akrobacijama i milonima za upper managmnet moze da bude 🙂

Ja ne znam sto posto kako te mega korparacije funkionisu, ali u manjim firmamma ako imas 2% profit margin onda si jednom nogom u bankroptu ili managment ne dobija velike plate -a moze i oba 🙂

 

 

 

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Retail recimo radi na nekih 3% profit margin. Upper management chesto dobija te plate da bi ostvarili profit margin. Javne firme, na wall st, ne zahtevaju ni da budu profitabilne. U manjim firmama to naravno radi drugacije, ali taj pristup "vidi bogate se na nas racun" cesto nema smisla.

Ljudi koji nisu povezani sa biznisom, cesto nemaju pojma sta pricaju. 

Ako ne zaradjuju 30% ne pljackaju nikog. Svi ispod 10% su normalne korporacije, koje bi vise zaradili na finansijskom trzistu da se ne zezaju sa zaposlenima. To je trenutna situacija, moze da se promeni.

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