Epidemija koronavirusa (Covid-19 / SARS-Cov2) - dnevne aktuelnosti iz zemlje i sveta

[shonke]

13 minutes ago, urosg3 said:

Da, jasno. Sad kad već planiramo, pretpostavljam da nije neki etički problem da nas troje 31. 12. zapalimo na Kosmaj tamo ima 20 ari slobode napolju a od rizika - pa nema ga realno. Prva kuća do nas, a da živi neko je 100 meteri, epidemiološki gledano savršeno bezbedno okruženje. Tiktok radi podjednako dobro/loše i tamo 🙂
Tako bih premostio do 7.1. tamo i da je izmestimo iz svakodnevice a i da može da izađe napolje.

 

Nema šta etički, ako gđa i ti sedite u kući sa njom isto vam je da li ste u BG ili na Kosmaju, samo što je tamo čist vazduh. Ne znam za posao kakva vam je organizacija, nama su rekli pre nekog vremena da kad je dete pozitivno, ukućani koji su vakcinisani i dalje idu na posao, sve dok nemaju simptome. Verujem da i vama matorcima neće da škodi kosmajski vazduh.

[urosg3]

1 minute ago, shonke said:

 

Nema šta etički, ako gđa i ti sedite u kući sa njom isto vam je da li ste u BG ili na Kosmaju, samo što je tamo čist vazduh. Ne znam za posao kakva vam je organizacija, nama su rekli pre nekog vremena da kad je dete pozitivno, ukućani koji su vakcinisani i dalje idu na posao, sve dok nemaju simptome. Verujem da i vama matorcima neće da škodi kosmajski vazduh.

Gospodža radi od kuće od početka, a mene nek neko menja napolju dok ne protutnji ovo, kad sam mogao ja kolegu da menjam - može i on mene. E sad ono što kvari celu sliku je nabavka za praznike, i uopšte nabavka, neko mora u samišku svaki dan okreni obrni - mora. A na Kosmaju imam već sve spremno, tako smo tamo sigurni.

[shonke]

Uroše, ja stvrno ne znam šta čekaš, što ne pališ kola već? 😀

[fancy]

Predlog.

Bilo bi dobro da se otvori posebna tema za lične Covid prepiske, pa da se tamo vode objave, čestitke, pozdravi, rezultati, ispovesti i razna trolovanja...

Na ovoj temi je sve teže naći neku korisnu opštu informaciju, analizu, pa čak i "Zoeine brojke" u moru pretežno ličnih poruka, komentara, zajebancija, animacija i sl.


Sent from my phone using their app

[nemanjaol]

3 hours ago, Doc Holiday said:

 

ne znam gde bi postavio pitanje, ali nekako mi se veoma cini da je pitanje za ovde...

 Naime, ovih dana profesionalni fudbaleri, a ne znam dali i drugi sportisti , umiru iznenada od srca... skoro svaki dan citamo o nekom..

 

  Ranije jeste toga bilo ali ne u ovoj meri...  Dali je to posledica covida i/ili vakcina..  Pri tome mislim ne na vakcine kao same po sebi nego vakcine za ljude , profesionalne sportiste, koji koriste mnogobrojna i dozvoljena i manje dozvoljena sredstva ..  Dejstvo vakcine kod ljudi koji koriste te steroide, doping hemikalije i slicno... 

 

Deluje zaista da se to cesce desava sada nego sto se desavalo ranije.

 

Sta je razlog ne znamo, posto se sva izvestavanja uglavnom zavrse na tome da je neko umro i to je to, naknadno nemamo nikakve informacije.

 

Na komentarima ljudi stalno pisu kako je to od vakcine, ali meni ima vise smisla, da je vezano za prelezan kovid. (ako uopste i ima neke veze)

 

Seti se primera bivseg kosarkasa Zvezde Odža koji je umro od srčanog udara posle preležane korone u avgustu 2020. Tada nije bilo vakcina

[Darko]

Jel može neko da mi objasni koja je poenta PCR testa za putovanje u druge države, ako u tim državama postoji veliki lokalni prenos virusa? Razumem da se proveravaju vakcinacije da se smanji teret na zdravstveni sistem, ali PCR test pa još izolacije mi nemaju nikakvog smisla.

 

Primer: država Queensland zahteva negativni PCR test u roku od 72 sata prelaženja granice. E sada, ovo se desilo u međuvremenu:

 

1. Omikron je počeo da bukti

2. Počeli su praznici, pa je mnoštvo radnika uzelo odmore, uključujući i one koji rade testiranja, procesuju rezultate i rade na punktovima - pa su zatvoreni neki punktovi za testiranje

4. Pošto mnoštvo želi da putuje u Queensland za odmor ili da vide svoju porodicu ili prijatelje, moraju da idu na te punktove i uzmu PCR test, mešajući se sa drugima koji imaju kovid.

 

I šta se desilo? Zbog gore navedenog, rezultati testiranja se čekaju i više od 5 dana sada  Što znači da ne možeš da uđeš u Queensland, jer ti treba negativan test u roku od 72 sata! Srećom da pa sam sada u Queensland-u (ne živim više o Sidneju jer mi je familija u Brizbenu), ali da sam hteo da dođem za praznike mogao bi da se slikam.

 

Par primera:

- Ortak želi da ide u Queensland pa je otišao na drive-through testiranje. Dok on čeka, zatvoriše punkt jer su mnoštvo kola blokirala ulice. Umesto toga, poslali ih na jedno mesto da parkiraju kola pa da čekaju u red (znači oni sa kovidom i oni koji nemaju simptome). U vrelom Australijskom suncu u podne. Na sreću, nije bilo vrelo toliko dugo ... počeo je pljusak. Pošto ortak nema gde da se skloni, pokisao skroz. Jedna pored njega se sažalila i rekla mu da dođe pod kišobran, što je lep gest ali ko zna da li je ona bolesna ili ne. Posle 5 sati ... konačno je stigao je u red na testiranje. I kada je završio, vratio se u parking ... koji je sada blokiran  Posle još 2 sata čekanja, konačno uspeo da ode kući. 

 

I da, test nije stigao za 72 sata. Na sreću, smilovao se lik na granici i pustio ga u Queensland.

- Isti fazon, prijateljice žele da idu u Queensland pa odu na testiranje. One su čekale 10 (da, 10!) sati!

- Druga prijateljica odluči da konačno izađe nakon ko zna koliko vremena na ples. I naravno, ispade da je neko bio pozitivan. Za svaki slučaj, uzme ona test 3 dana pre Božića, očekujući da dobije rezultat za par dana. Stigao je Božić a ona je i dalje bila u izolaciji.

 

Ne, ovo nije Srbija - ovo je Australija. 

[DJ_Vasa]

5 minutes ago, Darko said:

... 

Čudni su putevi birokratskog mozga.

[Amigo]

17 minutes ago, Darko said:

Ne, ovo nije Srbija - ovo je Australija. 

 

Tjesi se na Novom Zelandu je jos gore 

[Džudi]

11 hours ago, Sunshine State said:

@Devojka

 

Ne panici, nije pomor, prezivecemo i ovaj talas. A sto se tice vidjenja s rodbinom u dalekom svetu, covid ce ostati s nama, tako da nema smisla staviti zivot na hold godinama.

Ja putujem s kraja na kraj sveta, moze se, ko hoce/mora.

 

 

 

Da, znam to.  Ovi moji rade samo tamo ( izuzetak je zet koji je do pre pandemije stalno putovao zbog posla )...

 

Australija je još zatvorena, ne može da se ulazi i izlazi iz zemlje bez neke značajne potrebe - @Darko ispravi me, ako grešim.

 

Sestra i zet planiraju da dođu iz Kanade verovatno tokom leta, a brat iz Rusije dolazi kad tamo počne letnji raspust.

 

Videću ih, znamo da se virus neće povući, ali moraju da usklade i obaveze na poslu i u školi pa tek onda da planiraju dolazak.

 

Sinoć sam emotivno reagovala zbog sestre koja živi u Nemačkoj, ona čeka da se situacija sa kovidom malo smiri, pa će doći..

Usput kaže da dosta radi- povećan je broj ljudi koji dolaze u njenu ordinaciju ( radi kao psihoterapeut ), a razlog povećanja pacijenata je upravo koronavirus.   

 

6 hours ago, urosg3 said:

Update:
Stigao PCR jutros rano i +. Ceo dan danas bez temp i simptoma bilo kakvih, čak i grlo prestalo da boli, apetit uobičajen, Ceo dan na telefonu 🙂
The Starija se javlja iz Švajcarske - ne oseća ništa, zasad. Mi ostali smo okay.
Mlađa sad prefovara da ide na trening mi se opiremo, em zbog druge dece, em da je pregleda neko u ponedeljak makar. Nevoljno pristaje, nezadovoljna.

Mislim da će ovo:
 

  Reveal hidden contents

sačekati jedno nedelju dana, ili šta vi mislite? Svakako će lekar da odluči, ali eto šta mislie?

 

Uroše, važno je da Princeza nema temperaturu i da to budu jedini simptomi.

 

Što se bavljenja sportom tiče, drug mog sestrića je vraćen kući kada je trener čuo da  mu je 10 dan korone... Posle toga nije trenirao još tri meseca ( to je bilo prošle godine ). 

Neka joj lekar skrene pažnju za treninge i skrenuće joj sigurno.

 

3 hours ago, fancy said:

Predlog.

Bilo bi dobro da se otvori posebna tema za lične Covid prepiske, pa da se tamo vode objave, čestitke, pozdravi, rezultati, ispovesti i razna trolovanja...

Na ovoj temi je sve teže naći neku korisnu opštu informaciju, analizu, pa čak i "Zoeine brojke" u moru pretežno ličnih poruka, komentara, zajebancija, animacija i sl.


Sent from my phone using their app
 

 

Ovo je opšta tema o epidemiji i ovde većina nas koji redovno pišemo razmenjujemo iskustva, informacije i sl.

 

Mislim da bi neko od moderatora reagovao ukoliko smo preterali sa iznošenjem ličnih priča i sl.

 

Na ovoj temi mogu da se nađu opšte informacije o kovidu  a postoji još jedna tema o kovidu koja je vezana za ekonomiju i posledice na ekonomiju nastale usled pandemije. 

 

 

 

[erwin]

 

[Sunshine State]

South Africa Stops Tracing, Quarantining Contacts Of COVID-19 Cases

 

"Čini se da Omicron varijanta COVID-19 ima manje ozbiljan uticaj od ranijih varijanti, pokazala je studija u Južnoj Africi.

Južna Afrika je prestala da prati i stavlja u karantin kontakte potvrđenih slučajeva COVID-19 sa trenutnim dejstvom, saopštilo je Ministarstvo zdravlja, dok zemlja pokušava da se oporavi od ekonomskog pada izazvanog pandemijom.
Generalni direktor Odeljenja za zdravlje, dr Sandile Buthelezi, potvrdio je u četvrtak da će praćenje kontakata biti zaustavljeno sa trenutnim efektom, osim u grupnim okruženjima i situacijama izbijanja klastera ili samostalnim okruženjima.

 

U Južnoj Africi, Omicron se ponaša na način koji je manje ozbiljan“, rekla je Cheril Cohen, profesor epidemiologije na Univerzitetu Vitvatersrand, koja je podelila rezultate istraživanja pod nazivom „Rana procena ozbiljnosti varijante Omikrona u Južnoj Africi ' u onlajn brifingu Nacionalnog instituta za zarazne bolesti.

Neki od drugih razloga koji se navode za ovu odluku je taj što je udeo ljudi sa određenim imunitetom od infekcije i/ili vakcinacije ostao visok."

 

Hajd' da vidimo da li ce ovaj udeo ljudi s odredjenim imunitetom od vakcinacije imati uticaja u EU zemljama s visokom stopom vakcinacije.

[Sunshine State]

18 hours ago, Laki21 said:

Ima obaveznu meru izolacije od 14 dana od trenutka pozitivnog PCR-a, po zakonu (trenutno važećem).

 

U US razmatraju ovo:

 

"Ako ste vakcinisani s tri doze, ali ste pozitivni na COVID, kada se  treba vratiti na posao? Centri za kontrolu i prevenciju bolesti trenutno savetuju 10 dana izolacije.

Ali, zvaničnici agencije takođe razmišljaju o mogućem skraćenju ovog perioda.

Osoblje Opšte bolnice Tampa traži dokaze kako bi i ovo razmotrilo. Duggan je rekao da traže dokaze da vide da li bustovani pojedinci, koji ne pokazuju simptome, ali su bili pozitivni, mogu skratiti svoj period izolacije na bezbedan način. „Možda je isto tako bezbedno izaci iz izolacije za sedam dana kao i za 10 dana“, rekla je ona."

 

Kako vidimo po otkazanim letovima zbog nedostatka osoblja, ovo bi moglo da pomogne, ako se utvrdi da nakon 7 dana nema opasnosti da se izadje iz izolacije.

[erwin]

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by erwin

[erwin]

U svom članku u Forbsu o tome kako je omikron mogao da nastane, poznati virolog Vilijam Hezeltajn (Wiki) navodi da je jedan od mogućih načina nastanka varijante s tolikom količinom mutacija testiranje Merkovog/MSD-ovog antivirusnog leka molnupiravir u JAR. Taj lek koji izaziva mutacije pri razmnožavanju virusa i tako ga onesposobljava toliko da na kraju postane nesposoban za širenje je nedavno tesno posle velike rasprave odobren u SAD. Problem je u tome što nedovoljne količine leka (npr. ako pacijent ne uzme sve predviđene doze) ili davanje leka pacijentima kod kojih on nije efikasan iz nekih razloga može dovesti do velikih mutacija virusa koji i dalje ostaje sposoban za širenje. Mutacije koje su uočene kod omikrona uglavnom su baš onog tipa koje izaziva molnupiravir.
 

Quote

Omicron Origins

 William A. Haseltine 

Spoiler

This is the first in a series on the Omicron variant. Here we describe the origins of Omicron. In following pieces, we will describe the specific mutations in the Omicron Spike protein and larger genome. 
The advent of Omicron is ample evidence that we are not yet done with Covid, and Covid is not yet done with us. To look forward and understand where the virus is heading, we need to understand the origin of Omicron. One thing we can be relatively certain of: where this variant came from, more will come.  
Omicron is unlike any other variant currently in circulation. The variant carries 60 (50 nonsynonymous, 8 synonymous, and 2 noncoding) mutations compared to the original Wuhan strain. The three most likely origin are stories are that Omicron emerged from an immunocompromised patient; that it emerged from reverse zoonosis — human to animal transmission followed by animal to human transmission; or that it emerged from treatment of a Covid-19 patient with the mutagenic drug molnupiravir. Here we explore the evidence supporting each hypothesis.  
An immunocompromised patient 
Viral variants are well documented to arise in persistently infected immunocompromised Covid-19 patients treated by antiviral drugs and antibodies — the London patient, the Boston patient, Pittsburgh and Italian patients. In the face of our best weaponry of the time, the virus not only prevailed but became ever stronger, learning how to evade our immune defenses. 
The variations that evolved and emerged from these patients had a wealth of mutations, not just in the spike protein but throughout the entire genome. In the London patient, researchers found an H69-70 deletion in the N-terminal domain of the spike. The Boston patient showed instances of the E484K spike mutation. The Pittsburgh and Italian patients showed far more deletions in the viral genome than any seen to date and in places that were as yet unexpected — including a wealth of mutations in the spike’s N-terminal domain and in other proteins, including ORF1a and the N protein. Omicron carries some mutations identical and others similar to those found in these patients. Omicron could quite conceivably be the latest in this long line of such variants.  
Reverse Zoonosis 
The next hypothesis to consider is that this particular variant evolved from a reverse zoonotic event. Most are now agreed that SARS-CoV-2 originated in bats, a reservoir for a diverse array of coronaviruses. The theory with Omicron is that a human strain of the virus jumped back into animals and then re-emerged from that animal to infect humans again. The likelihood that this may have occurred is entirely plausible, and may indeed be probable. Since its emergence, this particular coronavirus has infected our entire biosphere, from minks and mice to deer and rats, not to mention our own selves. In each of these animal populations, just like in humans, the virus has evolved and adapted to immune pressure, so far surviving in each population to infect and reinfect. As an example, a virus transmitted back to humans from minks contained the troubling new spike protein N501K, also present in Omicron. 
A study of the sewage waste in New York City gives us a hint of just how prevalent infection and mutation is across animal species. The New York research, conducted across 14 of the city’s wastewater treatment plants, was originally aimed at exploring human sewage for signs of the virus, but the researchers found four new combinations of viral mutations that had never been seen in humans. These variants were somewhat resistant to human antibodies, which meant that if the variants were to infect humans, they would likely prove harder to neutralize than previously known strains. Marc Johnson, the lead investigator on the project, believes the evidence points not to a human but rather to an animal reservoir for these viruses, most probably rats or possibly dogs.  
A closer look at the mutations in the Omicron variant and those seen in rats suggest there may be a link (see Figure below). Omicron shares numerous identical and non-identical mutations within the N and S proteins with the wastewater viruses, including 13 amino acid changes in the same position or within one amino acid. Some experts believe, due to these similarities, that if Omicron evolved in an animal host, it is likely to be a rodent. 

Molnupiravir-induced 
The final theory, and perhaps the most troubling one, is that Omicron is a result of our own doing, through the treatment of a Covid-19 patient with the highly mutagenic antiviral drug molnupiravir. Molnupiravir works by introducing errors into the virus’ genetic code. When enough errors are introduced, virus replication slows and the patient clears the virus.  
Under less than ideal conditions — when the full dose of molnupiravir is not taken over the full period of five days, for example — the drug could lead to the creation of highly mutated, but viable, strains of SARS-CoV-2. Even under ideal conditions, patients treated with molnupiravir produced viable virus a few days into their course of treatment. The extent of the mutations which appeared due to molnupiravir are significant. In the FDA analysis of Merck’s clinical trial results, the authors note that patients who received molnupiravir showed more viral variation than those who did not, including amino acid substitutions, deletions or insertions in the spike gene, and amino acid changes were scattered throughout the coding sequence. A total of 72 emergent spike substitutions or changes was detected among 38 molnupiravir-treated patients.  
In South Africa, where Omicron was first detected, molnupiravir has been taken in both ideal and non-ideal conditions. Four 12 different South African locations were used in Merck’s clinical trial of molnupiravir, which began in October 2020. The drug was given to patients at what we now know to be the “optimal” dosage, but also at lower doses to test the drug’s efficacy in smaller amounts. There is by no means a foolproof connection between molnupiravir and Omicron, but molnupiravir is known to induce a preponderance of two types of mutations: cytosine to uridine (C→U) and guanosine to adenosine (G→A). If you look at the difference in the Omicron genome and the original Wuhan variant, these C→U and G→A mutations comprise the majority of differences, with C→U mutations more prevalent to G→A. The same has been observed for molnupiravir-induced mutations in other coronaviruses (see Figure below). Agostini et al. note that exposure to molnupiravir resulted in up to 162 mutations in MHV and 41 mutations in MERS-CoV. 


 
 
 
 
 
 
(A) SARS-CoV-2 genome with wastewater variant mutations observed by Johnson et al. noted as black lines;
 (B) SARS-CoV-2 Spike and Nucleocapsid proteins with Johnson et al. wastewater variant mutations noted as black lines. Mutations listed are those found in Omicron within one amino acid position of those found in the wastewater variants. Mutations in red are an exact match between the Omicron variant and the wastewater variants;
 (C) MHV and (D) MERS-CoV mutations observed by Agostini et al. after exposure to molunpiravir.  AGOSTINI ET AL. 
 
There is still much more study to be done before we will know with any degree of certainty which of these three scenarios led to Omicron’s evolution. But we know enough today to make a few assumptions and assertions. 
First, until we can say with certainty that molnupiravir did not and could not create a highly infectious and highly mutated variant like Omicron, it should be pulled from the market and any debate over approval of the drug should be paused. 
Second, we need to finally acknowledge the broad range of tools known and unknown that this virus has at its disposal, across its viral genome. While Omicron may be bad, future variants could be far worse. The United States and many other countries are still far behind where they should be when it comes to testing and genomic sequencing of viruses in circulation among humans and in other populations. Until we do better on this front — until we understand what the virus has already achieved and how it succeeded — we will never have a full understanding of what more this virus can do and what is ahead in this pandemic. Omicron tells us that now, more than ever, we need to institute a systematic multimodal approach to Covid control, including public health measures, vaccines, therapeutic and prophylactic drugs, and collaborative global engagement. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/12/02/omicron-origins/?sh=5e6e25781bc1
 
U članku je pogrešno navedeno da su 4 test lokacije bile u JAR. Zapravo ih je 12 u JAR, a 4 u epicentru omikrona - pokrajini Gauteng.

 

Sve lokacije u JAR na kojima je testiran Merkov/MSD-ov molnupiravir, od toga su 4 u Gautengu označene plavom bojom:
 

 
https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1474180416001163264

Edited December 27, 2021 by erwin

[Tomiprunet]

20 minutes ago, erwin said:

U svom članku u Forbsu o tome kako je omikron mogao da nastane, poznati virolog Vilijam Hezeltajn (Wiki) navodi da je jedan od mogućih načina nastanka varijante s tolikom količinom mutacija testiranje Merkovog/MSD-ovog antivirusnog leka molnupiravir u JAR. Taj lek koji izaziva mutacije pri razmnožavanju virusa i tako ga onesposobljava toliko da na kraju postane nesposoban za širenje je nedavno tesno posle velike rasprave odobren u SAD. Problem je u tome što nedovoljne količine leka (npr. ako pacijent ne uzme sve predviđene doze) ili davanje leka pacijentima kod kojih on nije efikasan iz nekih razloga može dovesti do velikih mutacija virusa koji i dalje ostaje sposoban za širenje. Mutacije koje su uočene kod omikrona uglavnom su baš onog tipa koje izaziva molnupiravir.
 
 

Quote

Omicron Origins

 William A. Haseltine  Spoiler

 

This is the first in a series on the Omicron variant. Here we describe the origins of Omicron. In following pieces, we will describe the specific mutations in the Omicron Spike protein and larger genome. 
The advent of Omicron is ample evidence that we are not yet done with Covid, and Covid is not yet done with us. To look forward and understand where the virus is heading, we need to understand the origin of Omicron. One thing we can be relatively certain of: where this variant came from, more will come.  
Omicron is unlike any other variant currently in circulation. The variant carries 60 (50 nonsynonymous, 8 synonymous, and 2 noncoding) mutations compared to the original Wuhan strain. The three most likely origin are stories are that Omicron emerged from an immunocompromised patient; that it emerged from reverse zoonosis — human to animal transmission followed by animal to human transmission; or that it emerged from treatment of a Covid-19 patient with the mutagenic drug molnupiravir. Here we explore the evidence supporting each hypothesis.  
An immunocompromised patient 
Viral variants are well documented to arise in persistently infected immunocompromised Covid-19 patients treated by antiviral drugs and antibodies — the London patient, the Boston patient, Pittsburgh and Italian patients. In the face of our best weaponry of the time, the virus not only prevailed but became ever stronger, learning how to evade our immune defenses. 
The variations that evolved and emerged from these patients had a wealth of mutations, not just in the spike protein but throughout the entire genome. In the London patient, researchers found an H69-70 deletion in the N-terminal domain of the spike. The Boston patient showed instances of the E484K spike mutation. The Pittsburgh and Italian patients showed far more deletions in the viral genome than any seen to date and in places that were as yet unexpected — including a wealth of mutations in the spike’s N-terminal domain and in other proteins, including ORF1a and the N protein. Omicron carries some mutations identical and others similar to those found in these patients. Omicron could quite conceivably be the latest in this long line of such variants.  
Reverse Zoonosis 
The next hypothesis to consider is that this particular variant evolved from a reverse zoonotic event. Most are now agreed that SARS-CoV-2 originated in bats, a reservoir for a diverse array of coronaviruses. The theory with Omicron is that a human strain of the virus jumped back into animals and then re-emerged from that animal to infect humans again. The likelihood that this may have occurred is entirely plausible, and may indeed be probable. Since its emergence, this particular coronavirus has infected our entire biosphere, from minks and mice to deer and rats, not to mention our own selves. In each of these animal populations, just like in humans, the virus has evolved and adapted to immune pressure, so far surviving in each population to infect and reinfect. As an example, a virus transmitted back to humans from minks contained the troubling new spike protein N501K, also present in Omicron. 
A study of the sewage waste in New York City gives us a hint of just how prevalent infection and mutation is across animal species. The New York research, conducted across 14 of the city’s wastewater treatment plants, was originally aimed at exploring human sewage for signs of the virus, but the researchers found four new combinations of viral mutations that had never been seen in humans. These variants were somewhat resistant to human antibodies, which meant that if the variants were to infect humans, they would likely prove harder to neutralize than previously known strains. Marc Johnson, the lead investigator on the project, believes the evidence points not to a human but rather to an animal reservoir for these viruses, most probably rats or possibly dogs.  
A closer look at the mutations in the Omicron variant and those seen in rats suggest there may be a link (see Figure below). Omicron shares numerous identical and non-identical mutations within the N and S proteins with the wastewater viruses, including 13 amino acid changes in the same position or within one amino acid. Some experts believe, due to these similarities, that if Omicron evolved in an animal host, it is likely to be a rodent. 

Molnupiravir-induced 
The final theory, and perhaps the most troubling one, is that Omicron is a result of our own doing, through the treatment of a Covid-19 patient with the highly mutagenic antiviral drug molnupiravir. Molnupiravir works by introducing errors into the virus’ genetic code. When enough errors are introduced, virus replication slows and the patient clears the virus.  
Under less than ideal conditions — when the full dose of molnupiravir is not taken over the full period of five days, for example — the drug could lead to the creation of highly mutated, but viable, strains of SARS-CoV-2. Even under ideal conditions, patients treated with molnupiravir produced viable virus a few days into their course of treatment. The extent of the mutations which appeared due to molnupiravir are significant. In the FDA analysis of Merck’s clinical trial results, the authors note that patients who received molnupiravir showed more viral variation than those who did not, including amino acid substitutions, deletions or insertions in the spike gene, and amino acid changes were scattered throughout the coding sequence. A total of 72 emergent spike substitutions or changes was detected among 38 molnupiravir-treated patients.  
In South Africa, where Omicron was first detected, molnupiravir has been taken in both ideal and non-ideal conditions. Four 12 different South African locations were used in Merck’s clinical trial of molnupiravir, which began in October 2020. The drug was given to patients at what we now know to be the “optimal” dosage, but also at lower doses to test the drug’s efficacy in smaller amounts. There is by no means a foolproof connection between molnupiravir and Omicron, but molnupiravir is known to induce a preponderance of two types of mutations: cytosine to uridine (C→U) and guanosine to adenosine (G→A). If you look at the difference in the Omicron genome and the original Wuhan variant, these C→U and G→A mutations comprise the majority of differences, with C→U mutations more prevalent to G→A. The same has been observed for molnupiravir-induced mutations in other coronaviruses (see Figure below). Agostini et al. note that exposure to molnupiravir resulted in up to 162 mutations in MHV and 41 mutations in MERS-CoV. 


 
 
 
 
 
 
(A) SARS-CoV-2 genome with wastewater variant mutations observed by Johnson et al. noted as black lines;
 (B) SARS-CoV-2 Spike and Nucleocapsid proteins with Johnson et al. wastewater variant mutations noted as black lines. Mutations listed are those found in Omicron within one amino acid position of those found in the wastewater variants. Mutations in red are an exact match between the Omicron variant and the wastewater variants;
 © MHV and (D) MERS-CoV mutations observed by Agostini et al. after exposure to molunpiravir.  AGOSTINI ET AL. 
 
There is still much more study to be done before we will know with any degree of certainty which of these three scenarios led to Omicron’s evolution. But we know enough today to make a few assumptions and assertions. 
First, until we can say with certainty that molnupiravir did not and could not create a highly infectious and highly mutated variant like Omicron, it should be pulled from the market and any debate over approval of the drug should be paused. 
Second, we need to finally acknowledge the broad range of tools known and unknown that this virus has at its disposal, across its viral genome. While Omicron may be bad, future variants could be far worse. The United States and many other countries are still far behind where they should be when it comes to testing and genomic sequencing of viruses in circulation among humans and in other populations. Until we do better on this front — until we understand what the virus has already achieved and how it succeeded — we will never have a full understanding of what more this virus can do and what is ahead in this pandemic. Omicron tells us that now, more than ever, we need to institute a systematic multimodal approach to Covid control, including public health measures, vaccines, therapeutic and prophylactic drugs, and collaborative global engagement. 

U vezi remdesivira i mutacija je pricao jos pocetkom ove godine onaj Francuski doktor iz Marseja.

 

https://gomet.net/le-remdesivir-variant-britannique-raoult/ 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by Tomiprunet

[djura.net]

26 minutes ago, erwin said:

U svom članku u Forbsu o tome kako je omikron mogao da nastane, poznati virolog Vilijam Hezeltajn (Wiki) navodi da je jedan od mogućih načina nastanka varijante s tolikom količinom mutacija testiranje Merkovog/MSD-ovog antivirusnog leka molnupiravir u JAR. Taj lek koji izaziva mutacije pri razmnožavanju virusa i tako ga onesposobljava toliko da na kraju postane nesposoban za širenje je nedavno tesno posle velike rasprave odobren u SAD. Problem je u tome što nedovoljne količine leka (npr. ako pacijent ne uzme sve predviđene doze) ili davanje leka pacijentima kod kojih on nije efikasan iz nekih razloga može dovesti do velikih mutacija virusa koji i dalje ostaje sposoban za širenje. Mutacije koje su uočene kod omikrona uglavnom su baš onog tipa koje izaziva molnupiravir.
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/12/02/omicron-origins/?sh=5e6e25781bc1
 
U članku je pogrešno navedeno da su 4 test lokacije bile u JAR. Zapravo ih je 12 u JAR, a 4 u epicentru omikrona - pokrajini Gauteng.

 

Sve lokacije u JAR na kojima je testiran Merkov/MSD-ov molnupiravir, od toga su 4 u Gautengu označene plavom bojom:
 

 
https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1474180416001163264

Kad ovo vidim, uopste nisam siguran da je molnupiravir dobra ideja. Mada, ako ce mutacije koje on 'pravi' dovesti do toga da imamo sve bezopasnije varijante, onda hmmm. 

[erwin]

Hezeltajn inače nije jedini koji upozorava na molnupiravir.

Pritom je upitno koliko je molnupiravir uopšte efikasan protiv novijih sojeva, protiv delte se nije uopšte pokazao, o čemu svedoče rezultati kasnijeg dela ispitivanja po kojima su čak oni koji su primali molnupiravir češće bili hospitalizovani od onih koji su primali placebo. Ko je pratio, seća se da su preliminarni rezultati bili daleko bolji od završnih.

 

 

MOV = molnupiravir

PBO = placebo

 

https://twitter.com/LongDesertTrain/status/1475137170772013062

Edited December 27, 2021 by erwin

[ras kass]

Koji su uslovi za ulazak stranca nevakcinisnaog u Srbiju ? Pretpostavljam pcr test, nego mora li i karantin?

[Sunshine State]

3 minutes ago, ras kass said:

Koji su uslovi za ulazak stranca nevakcinisnaog u Srbiju ? Pretpostavljam pcr test, nego mora li i karantin?

 

Vakcina ili test (PCR/antigen) - ne mora karantin.

 

Tako je bilo pre 10 dana kad sam ja usla

[Sunshine State]

Health expert: Surge in COVID-19 cases should no longer be 'major metric' of pandemic

 

"Vodeći zdravstveni stručnjak rekao je da uglavnom blaži simptomi koje su prijavili vakcinisani ljudi protiv koronavirusa dokazuju da je vakcinacija najbolji način da se zaštitite od ozbiljnog oboljenja ili umiranja od bolesti i da porast broja slučajeva više ne bi trebalo da bude centralna metrika kojom se meri pandemija.

 

„Dve godine infekcije su uvek prethodile hospitalizacijama koje su prethodile smrti, tako da ste mogli da pogledate infekcije i znate šta dolazi“, rekao je Ašiš K. Dža, dekan Univerziteta Braun i bivši zdravstveni stručnjak sa Harvarda tokom nastupa na ABC-ju „Ove nedelje“. " u nedelju. „Omicron to menja. Ovo je promena koju smo čekali na mnogo načina.“

 

Dža je rekao da je i dalje važno da zdravstveni zvaničnici prate infekcije među nevakcinisanim osobama „jer će ti ljudi završiti u bolnici“.

„Ali sada se zaista moramo fokusirati na hospitalizacije i smrti“, rekao je on."

 

Cuo me vodeci strucnjak juce 😄

[shonke]

Kad ovo vidim, uopste nisam siguran da je molnupiravir dobra ideja. Mada, ako ce mutacije koje on 'pravi' dovesti do toga da imamo sve bezopasnije varijante, onda hmmm. 

To je lutrija. Mutacija može da napravi od virusa "malu macu" a može i ebolu (u smislu smrtnosti).

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk

[erwin]

Današnji ponedeljak: 1249 novozaraženih uz udeo pozitivnih među testiranima od 9,2%

Prošli ponedeljak: 1029 novozaraženih uz udeo pozitivnih među testiranima od 8,1%

[handys]

1 hour ago, shonke said:

To je lutrija. Mutacija može da napravi od virusa "malu macu" a može i ebolu (u smislu smrtnosti).

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk
 

 

Da li dosadasnji trend mutacija (wuhan-a-b-g-d-om)? ukazuje na dalji trend, ili ovakve 'forsirane' mutacije mogu da to preokrenu?

[erwin]

  

Quote

Ne igra se Partizan – Mega

Ništa od utakmice. Nekom drugom prilikom Partizan će da dočeka Megu. Meč 13. kola [košarkaške ABA lige] koji je bio zakazan za 21:00 je odložen.

Jednostavno, goste je desetkovala korona. Pozitivni na kovid 19 su pet igrača i šef stručnog štaba Vlada Jovanović. Za rukovodstvo regionalnog takmičenja nije bilo druge opcije nego da u takvim okolnostima odlože duel ovih rivala. Prosto, gosti nisu imali dovoljno košarkaša na raspolaganju…

https://www.maxbetsport.rs/ne-igra-se-partizan-mega-332376/

[erwin]

 

 

 

Link na japansku studiju:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rhCazFav1pokFKmsZI5_oqIeH9ofFckR/view