Yoyogi

Ne radi to u Japanu. Ubiše se bankari (Bank of Japan = FED), nema šta nisu probali, ne mogu da ubiju deflaciju još od 1990. Celih 30 godina. Eto, max što su uspeli je da deflaciju dovedu do 0% inflacije a cilj im je bio i jeste inflacija 2%. Izgiboše a nikako da izazovu inflaciju, ne znam koliko para da upumpaju u promet. Sada će trilione dolara da upumpaju oko spašavanja od posledica korone. Do 15. maja svaki stanovnik (uključujući i nas troje) će dobiti 1,000 dolara, samo to će biti 1.2 triliona dolara novih para. Monthly inflation rate in Japan was 0.00% in December 2019. That is 0.10 less than it was in November 2019 and 0.29 more than in December 2018. At the same time, 2019 year to date inflation rate is 0.79% and year over year inflation rate is 0.79%. Tu inflaciju mogu da detektuju samo precizni statistički merni instrumenti, cene ničega se nisu promenile od 2003 (osim benzina koji je danas jeftiniji nego što sam ikada video). Čak i to: kada je godinama bio 1.60$ to nije prouzokovalo inflaciju mada svi to ugrađuju u cene svojih proizvoda. Sada će tek deflacija da se vrati kada je 1.10$, jedino helikopterski novac može da je spreči.

The Onion ismeja Đokovića oko vakcina. Stvarno, šta mu sada treba da sponzori počnu da mu otkazuju? Novak Djokovic Clarifies Anti-Vaccine Comments By Insisting He’s Always Supported Having Sponsors MONACO—Walking back controversial statements about the Covid-19 crisis after a harsh backlash, Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic clarified his anti-vaccine comments Tuesday by insisting he has always clearly supported having sponsors. “Look, I know some people took what I said out of context, but I am 100% supportive of being in commercials, and I would never do anything to jeopardize that,” said Djokovic in a press statement, going on to state that he would never want to give the public the false impression that he was someone who could not sell Seiko watches. “I think everyone who knows me recognizes that I’ve been very sympathetic to the brands, products, and services that pay large sums of money for me to endorse. It would be completely reckless for me to damage my relationship with Lacoste, and I hope they know that. Why would I want to make a public health disaster like coronavirus worse when that only limits my earning potential?” Djokovic ended the press release by inviting his fans to ask him whatever they wanted about the European migrant crisis or the Yugoslav wars of the ’90s.

Nagoya, Moricoro park, breskve u cvatu:

Ne radim ja ovo kao osnovni posao, jedino ako nešto stane onda dođe kod mene. Ovo su svakodnevne priče, bio sam uključen u Toyota projekat kada su napravili 60,000 virtuelnih mašina za zaposlene da rade bilo odakle. Sada kada se svi guraju da prebace ljude da rade od kuće, nema boljeg da mu to uradi nego velika multinacionalna firma koja i sama decenijama radi od kuce. Full stack: laptop - komunikacije - virtuelni pc na serverima - data storage. Ovo je negde u Americi, CIO jedne firme je poslao ovaj mejl našem CEO: Thank you so much for all the support that xyz has given us - it has been wonderful, for sure. We did not expect to move 20,000+ employees to a work-from-home environment within two days, and thanks to support from xyz , we made that happen."

Za dlaku to nije pomerilo inflaciju a to je bio cilj Centralne banke Japana. Naštampali su pare da otkupe obveznice od firmi koje sede na njima. Čuveni državni dug Japana koji neobrazovani novinari razvlače po tekstovima (kažu tačno da je 2.5 puta nacionalni dohodak) je iluzoran: firme (kao NEC, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Toyota...) jednostavno sede na tim obveznicama bez namere da njima trguju. Koliko god da je kamata niska ili nulta, bolje nego negativna koju bi plaćali za ležanje čistog novca po bankama. 95% japanskih obveznica je u domaćem vlasništvu, ništa kao Grčka gde je toliko bilo u stranom vlasništvu, pa kad su počeli da ih prodaju slomiše Grčkoj kičmu. A Grčka, u EUR zoni, nije imala pravo da štampa pare da ih otkupi. Japan i Amerika nemaju to ograničenje. FED US može tim novoštampanim parama da plaća kamate na svoje obveznice i da ih otkupljuje od stranih vlasnika (u Srbiji se te obveznice zovu "devizne rezerve") i to Amerika neće ni da primeti niti to prouzrokuje ikakvu inflaciju. U naletima štampanja, mogu na deviznom tržištu yen i dolar kratkotrajno da padnu ali po ponudi i potražnji se vrlo brzo (u danima ako ne i u satima) vrati gde je bilo.

Umesto, da kao pravi mijarder, radi rakete i svemirska putovanja. 😁 Bil Gejts, naivčina. Misli, da ako leči po Africi, uradio je posao. Gde će ti koji nisu umrli da rade i od čega da žive? Otuda, iz te naivnosti, je došla i migrantska kriza. Zdravi, mladi ljudi, nemaju posla ni uslova za život. Ako je bilo neke pomoći njihovim državama, to su njihove kleptokratske vlasti stavile na svoje račune u Švajcarskoj. Albert Ajnštajn, koliki god da je genijalac bio, nikada nije naučio da vozi običan auto. Nije mogao da shvati da se promeni brzina menjačem, da za to ne treba da se stane.

Kvantni računari. Ovaj desno na slici, Andrew Dzurak, mi je bio prijatelj, stanovao je u istoj zgradi. Tada je bio Dr ali kao docent. Sada je profesor na The University of New South Wales, Sydney. Od njega sam se (1998-1999) naslušao teorija kvantne fizike i kvantnih računara, dobio 1:1 predavanje od profesora. I tada su na UNSW imali eksperimentalni računar. On je bio entuzijastični lider. Ja sam tada radio u IBM, nije ga zanimala komercijalna upotreba tih računara, više kao za istraživanja i simulacije koje tada (ni sada) normalni računari ma kako snažni bili, ne mogu da urade. Ili, što im treba 20 godina, kvantni, kako je on tvrdio, može da uradi za sat ili dva. Čipovi tog računara moraju da rade na apsolutnoj nuli, Kelvina, na -273C. Ova slika je izašla u novinama kada su uspeli da tu temperaturu ublaže za 1 stepen Kelvina. To im pravi razliku od stotina miliona dolara za jedan run dole na nekoliko desetina hiljada dolara. Još treba vremena i istraživanja. Pitao sam ga, ako jednog dana njegova istraživanja budu komercijalizovana, kako bi izgledalo široko kvotovano, smatrano kao budalasto, predviđanje od strane IBM iz 1943, da će svetu trebati najviše 4, možda 5 računara. "Don't get me into that. It will be a reality one day".

Univerzitet u Pragu je uradio istraživanje o poplavama reke Vltave, postoje belezi i zapisi , sve od 12 veka. Bilo je 10ak poplava epskih razmera u tom periodu. Odmah posle poplave, stanovništvo se preseli i gradi iznad poslednje vodene linije. I to traje jednu generaciju. Posle toga, polako se spušta nazad na reku, reka je vrednost i atrakcija. To su istraživanje sociolozi proširili na opštu zaboravnost. Kako su pomrli ili ostareli pa se ne sećaju oni koji su preživeli fašizam 2. Svetskog rata, epidemije (kao španski grip, variola vera), počeše da se javljaju desničarske, čak i fašističke stranke, po istom principu i protivnici vakcinacije. Bilo je još, ne sećam se.

Kako onda radi "Quantitative easing" što FED US upražnjava naveliko? Kada će te pare da uzmi od građana i kako?

Kada kineski studenti idu na studije u Japan, na ispraćaju im kažu: "Ne dozvolite da vas Japan zadoji komunizmom". Ima ih 110,000 u svakom trenutku. A Japan kapitalistička zemlja. Isto kao da ih ispraćaju u Skandinaviju pa da im kažu isto to. Nije ni svaki kapitalizam isti.

Krajem 1990-ih, u Australiji je počela kampanja "Australia in Asian Century". Dok sam pratio i nisam otišao, bilo je da sve škole nađu "sister school" u Aziji i da rade razmenu đaka, po nekom tempu godišnje. Razmena ekskurzija. Dolazak azijskog veka korona virus je ubrzao, počinje baš sada, kao da je neko pritisnuo prekidač. Eto mene da u Aziji proživim gornje dve trećine života a ćerka verovatno svoj ceo. U pravo vreme, na pravom mestu. Članak iz The Economist: The world after covid-19 By invitation: Kishore Mahbubani The West’s incompetent response to the pandemic will hasten the power-shift to the east Apr 20th 2020 HISTORY HAS turned a corner. The era of Western domination is ending. The resurgence of Asia in world affairs and the global economy, which was happening before the emergence of covid-19, will be cemented in a new world order after the crisis. The deference to Western societies, which was the norm in the 19th and 20th centuries, will be replaced by a growing respect and admiration for East Asian ones. The pandemic could thus mark the start of the Asian century. The crisis highlights the contrast between the competent responses of East Asian governments (notably China, South Korea and Singapore) and the incompetent responses of Western governments (such as Italy, Spain, France, Britain and America). The far lower death rates suffered by East Asian countries is a lesson to all. They reflect not just medical capabilities, but also the quality of governance and the cultural confidence of their societies. What has shocked many in Asia is the reluctance of some Western governments to allow science—and basic epidemiological modeling—to determine the policy responses. After its initial missteps in Wuhan (which were clearly disastrous), China firmly deployed good science and robust public policy measures to break the back of the problem. It responsibly released the genetic data as soon as Chinese scientists sequenced the genome of the virus on January 12th. A half century ago, had a similar global pandemic broken out, the West would have handled it well and the developing countries of East Asia would have suffered. Today the quality of governance in East Asia sets the global standard. The leaders who turned their countries around, such as Deng Xiaoping in China and Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore, planted the seeds of knowledge, internationalism and order in their societies. These have blossomed into a respect for science and technology, a culture of pragmatism, a willingness to learn best practices from around the world and a desire to catch up with the West. These went along with deep investments in critical public goods such as education, health care and the environment. The result is that the post-covid-19 world will be one in which other countries look to East Asia as a role model, not only for how to handle a pandemic but how to govern more generally. Ever since Ronald Reagan declared, “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem,” in his inaugural address in 1981, there has been a progressive delegitimisation and consequently, demoralisation, of public services in America. President Donald Trump didn’t create this problem. He aggravated it. The Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta was one of the most globally-respected agencies. Yet Mr Trump proposed to cut the CDC’s budget even after covid-19 emerged. The world gasped in horror. By contrast, East Asian societies have believed in the wise insight of Amartya Sen, a Nobel laureate in economics, that for societies to succeed they need the invisible hand of free markets and the visible hand of good governance. China now arguably has the most meritocratic government in the world. The post-covid-19 world will see China accelerate both for the public’s benefit—and the balance of strong markets and good governance will be an appealing model for other countries. China was a feudal society for thousands of years and the brains of the vast majority at the bottom of society were never used. Given the tribulations it suffered in its “century of humiliation” from the mid 19th and 20th centuries, China understands well the dangers of a weak government. And because the Chinese psyche fears chaos more than any other force, the people welcome a strong state. The public’s trust in its leaders has been enhanced by the successful response to covid-19. Clearly there are sharp differences between the communist system of China and the societies of South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore. Yet one feature they share in common is a belief in strong government institutions run by the best and the brightest. This emphasis on meritocracy also has deep roots in Confucian culture. The entry bar to the Chinese Communist Party is set very high: only the top graduating students are admitted. Equally importantly, the rising levels of competent governance is both fuelled by, and contributes to, rising levels of cultural confidence. All this is gradually eroding the natural deference to the West that used to be the norm in Asia. Taken together, the competence and confidence of East Asia will reshape the world order. It has already begun. Twenty years ago, no Chinese national ran any United Nations organisation. Today they oversee four: the Food and Agriculture Organization, the International Telecommunication Union, the UN Industrial Development Organisation and the International Civil Aviation Organisation. If the International Monetary Fund and World Bank remain bastions of Western power, insisting that only Europeans and Americans can run the shop, they will progressively lose their credibility unless they allow Asians (as well as Africans and Latin Americans) to manage them. Failure to adapt hurts any organism—including international organisations. The rules-based global order was a gift by the West to the world after the second world war. Will China overturn it when it becomes the world’s undisputed economic power, as it eventually will? Here is the good news. As the current, biggest beneficiary of this order (since China is already the world’s largest trading power), the country will preserve the rules. However China will systematically try to reduce American influence in international organisations. In early 2020 China put up a candidate to run the World Intellectual Property Organisation. America campaigned ferociously against her. In the end, a neutral candidate from Singapore won. This provides a foretaste of fractious battles to come. Even Europeans are becoming disenchanted with an American-led world order. Few will forget that in the same week that the Trump administration banned travel from Europe (without any advance notice), the Chinese government sent medical equipment including masks, ventilators, protective suits and doctors to Italy and Spain. This is why the Group of Seven countries resisted pressure by America to call covid-19 the “Wuhan virus” in a communique after a virtual meeting in March. However, this does not mean the world will shift to a solely China-led order. Countries do not want to be forced to choose between China and America, as I document in my latest book, “Has China Won?” (Public Affairs, 2020). There will still be concerns over China’s rise, especially among its neighbours. No one feels comfortable sharing a small room with an elephant, no matter how benign. Most would welcome a continuing American presence to balance China’s influence. Yet they wish to see a competent and careful American presence, not one that forces them to choose between the two systems—as if America’s “with us or against us” ethos were the only options. To maintain its role and its respect, America will have to demonstrate remarkable diplomatic dexterity. Yet its foreign service has never been more demoralised; the Chinese one never more confident. Fortunately, all is not lost for America. In South-East Asia, for example, there remain huge reservoirs of goodwill after many years of American engagement in the region, which its diplomats can tap. As China’s weight in global affairs grows, it will have to take on greater responsibilities. America has progressively walked away from the family of United Nations institutions. China has not, and may use its new confidence to take on a larger role. For example, before the pandemic the World Health Organisation (WHO) had been weakened by an effort led by the West, starting in the 1970s, to reduce the share of funding that member states are obliged to pay and make the majority of its budget come from voluntary contributions. Today, some 80% of WHO’s budget is voluntary. China could demonstrate global leadership by calling for a charge to restore the mandatory funding to its earlier level of around 60%, since WHO can only develop long-term capabilities on the basis of predictable, compulsory contributions. But that may just be a start. The world after the crisis may see a hobbled West and a bolder China. We can expect that China will use its power. Paradoxically, a China-led order could turn out to be a more “democratic” order. China doesn’t want to export its model. It can live with a diverse multi-polar world. The coming Asian century need not be uncomfortable for the West or the rest of the world. __________________ Kishore Mahbubani is a former Singaporean diplomat and Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS from 2004 to 2017. He is currently a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute, NUS and the author of numerous books on Asia and the West, most recently “Has China Won?”. This article is part of a series from outside contributors on the world after covid-19. More can be found at economist.com/coronavirus

Ti citati su baš kao što sam rekao, od ljudi koji nisu ni u kakvom zvaničnom državnom svojstvu, prema njima se niko ne ravna. Istina, ozbiljniji ljudi nego onaj doktor u Srbiji što je virus nazvao smešnim. Novinari željni plasiranja senzacija samo doprinose zbunjivanju. Da bolnice odbijaju pacijente sa drugim oboljenjima nije tačno. To je kao da (jedan jedini) specijalizovani urgentni centar kaže "Puni smo, idite tu i tu". Toga je uvek bilo. Ambulantna kola su opšta i uvek moraju da nađu gde da odvezu pacijenta. Već sam naveo, da je u martu 2020. broj slučajeva sa odbijanjem prijema bio 830 a u martu 2019. je bilo 760. To je razlika koju je korona napravila. Ništa od utovara plastičnih vreća viljuškarima ili ostavljanja tela u vreći u polusedećem položaju na prvoj stolici koja je nađena. Ja idem poslovno u jednu veliku bolnicu (Toyota Kosei) svake dve nedelje, sudeći šta vidim po foajeu gde se plaćaju računi i dobijaju lekovi, sada je promet pao na 30% normalnog broja pacijenata, jedina promena je da postoje vrata za ulaz (gde ti prskaju ruke dezinfektom) i vrata za izlaz gde nema nikakve radnje.

Kakvi efekti za decu? Pa to su Reuters, Associated Press, otkada se oni bave vizuelnim efektima za decu? Ona slika je iz novina, došla je uz članak koji je trebala da ilustruje, o kolapsu japanskog zdravstva. Izjave (nedeljom) od NGO udruženja ili nezavisni eksperti koji nisu ni u kakvom svojstvu (nisu kao Kon) su davali takve izjave na koje se ti pozivaš. To nije rekao ministar zdravlja ili prajministar. PM je uveo vanredno stanje u celoj zemlji da se , ako ne zaustavi ono smanji širenje virusa, da se izbegne viđeno po drugim zemljama. Oaza će biti poslednja autobuska stanica na svetu, Novi Zeland. Oni se spremaju da proglase pobedu nad virusom. Kolega iz Velingtona mi kaže majka mu bila u panici, umreće 80,000 ljudi. Do danas je umrlo 14 (prosečna starost 79 godina). Striktne mere i liderstvo premijerke i isplivaše na drugu stranu.

Thai Prime Minister, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, priznao je da država nema para da isplaćuje minimalce svima koji su izgubili posao a njih može biti 10 miliona ako kriza oko virusa ne prestane. Onda je, javno, na TV, rekao da ce uputiti pisma 20-torici najbogatijih Thai da oni kažu kako će oni pomoći. Prema Forbes magazinu, Thai ima 27 ljudi koji imaju preko 1 milijarde dolara. Ne znam kako se kotiraju Kole i ostali tajkuni, da li ih je iko pomenuo u smislu da se pridruže novčano ili bolje ne, znaju Kole i ekipa sa kim bi imali posla i gde pi pare završile.

Dirljivo je tvoje saosećanje. Na to da će zdravstveni sistem sa 11,000 zaraženih i 260 mrtvih da kolapsira kao u Budžumburi, dodali su i sliku: Padoše domaćice u paniku a ono - slika sa karantina na aerodromu, ne iz bolnice. Ne primetiše kofere, prtljag, aerodromsku signalizaciju. Još, članak reče "830 slučajeva da bolnice odbijaju da prime pacijente iz ambulantnih kola". A izbacili su "U 830 slučajeva ambulatnim kolima je trebalo 20 minuta da im se kaže u koju bolnicu da idu, skok sa 760 takvih slučajeva u martu 2019.".

Pričaj šta hoćeš, ceo kapitalizam samo što ne propade. Eno, i naoružavaju se, za Mad Max scenario. A poslovi isparili, ako ih država ne oživi.

Nema to veze, ništa nisam omašio. Ono što sam rekao za Bransonov lopovluk je intuitivna stvar koju i običan narod shvata.

Ekonomija je meni pasija. Nije mi faks bio baš ekonomski ali je ipak bio faks sa 8 predmeta iz ekonomije. Kad me već prozva oko ekonomije, kako to stojiš sa bilo kakvim faksom? Ikada u životu? To upravo perjanica kapitalizma, Branson, traži od države, da plaća nezaposlenost njegovih zaposlenih.

Sigurno da nije isto kao Aeroflot. Virgin zaposleni - pravac na ulicu.

Bohumilo nas zajebava. Privatni sektor kleči pred majkom državom Amerikom da ga spase. Kao i na svakih 10 godina. Tu su se igrali, liberalili, sada je vreme za državne pare da spasu njihove vizije.

Pa i pretpostavio sam da znaš. Ma idiii. Javnost zna da je on 4.7 milijardi dolara (kapitalističke iluzije ali ipak) a on traži pomoć kao Aeroflot od SSSR 1986?

Mel, nemoj se praviš lud. Ti bar znaš kako to oko vakcina ide. Ne bacaj nam ovde koske.

Doktore, ako ti tako kažeš, tako je. Slušamo struku.

To su stotine hiljada, možda i milioni, ljudi u komercijalnoj avijaciji. U Australiji ih Branson ima 10,000 zaposlenih plus još 6,000 eco-sistem oko te firme. On plače, kleči, pred državnim stopalima, da ga izvade iz bule. Patetika, da on (ON!) sačuva poslove. Samo traži državne pare, on, kapitalista, za primer.