Dragan Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 How western sanctions are squeezing Russia ... If you can’t draw on savings abroad or ongoing export sales to ease your budget or resource constraints, the only way to get more resources for your illegal war is to take them away from alternative uses at home. And there are basically three ways in which a government can make such a transfer happen: -Through policies that force the private sector to reduce spending or give up resources, ranging from taxation, higher interest rates and outright confiscation (or conscription, in the sense of “human resources”) -Through domestic borrowing (foreign borrowing is hampered by sanctions), where it cajoles the domestic private sector into giving up resources against a promise to get them back with interest later -Through inflation that reduces the real economic value of assets and incomes that are not fully protected against price rises The choice will be determined by a trade-off between having to raise enough resources and imposing little enough pain on those who might be able to oppose you. That, as all revolutions (and perhaps even this week’s US election) seem to tell us, requires avoiding excessive inflation. Inflation is not low in Russia: prices are rising at an annual rate of 9 per cent a year, and wages by a lot more in the sectors trying to draw in labour. But it would have been much higher had it not been for a draconian monetary policy, with the central bank rate at 21 per cent. Which is where we come full circle, back to Chemezov’s complaint about the high cost of credit. Only on the surface is this a discussion about the right monetary policy. At heart, it reflects an acute resource allocation dilemma. The high interest rate is part of a necessary policy package that starves long-term corporate investment and all but some subsidised credit-financed spending in order to maximise resources in short-term defence-related production while avoiding too much of the burden being paid by the real wealth inflation-exposed households. If exporters’ corporate investment was not to suffer as much, somebody else would have to suffer instead. But we have come to the point where executives very much part of the establishment feel free to complain about the resource allocation that has been decided. The upshot is that western policy is having significant economic and political effects, despite superficially positive accounting numbers for Russian GDP growth. These are levers western countries can work harder at little or no cost to themselves: by cutting off more Russian financial institutions, by wielding secondary sanctions (more) to discourage circumvention, by redirecting outright Moscow’s blocked central bank reserves for Ukraine’s benefit, and by speeding up the technological upgrading of the west’s cross-border financial architecture to pre-empt leapfrogging by Russia and its friends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ras kass Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Teske budale 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 (edited) Russia’s economic war propaganda One of the narratives being pushed by Russia is that its economy is doing better than the West, and that sanctions are not working. This column looks at how the Russian economy worked before the invasion in 2022 and some of key statistics currently coming out from Russian authorities. The findings suggest that the Russian economy is not strong. Fiscal stimulus is creating inflation rather than growth, and the central bank is having to deal with the collateral damage of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. More importantly, Ukraine’s Western partners have all the economic resources Ukraine needs to help it win the war. It seems the Russian economy is headed towards a collapse in 2025. And Putin knows this. While the Kremlin likes to pretend that their bloody war economy is doing better than ever, this is far from the truth. In attempts to stop runaway inflation due to increased defense spending, the Russian Central Bank has increased the interest rate to record high 21% and will “very likely” raise it again in December. It is unclear whether they will be able to stop inflation this way, but this move is likely to bear devastating consequences for Russian businesses, already hurt by Western sanctions. Many are already reporting a drastic increase in late payments from counterparties – a worrying sign for the economy. Financial experts are expecting a “wave” of bankrupcies to sweep the Russian market over the next several months, and many leading businesses have grim prognoses for 2025. Russia’s biggest steel manufacturer, Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, have enough reserves only for another 6 months and have a “very negative” outlook for 2025. Samolet group, a major real estate developer is also on the brink of collapse – their sales are down 37%, and one of the biggest shareholders is trying to sell his stake in the company. As a systemic company for the Russian economy, the default of Samolet would likely require a government bailout. Russia’s Union of Shopping Centers has appealed to the government for support. They are requesting subsidized interest rates of 7-10 percent, debt restructuring, and payment deferrals of 5-10 years. Without these measures, 200 shopping centers risk bankruptcy. Among other companies that foresee a default in their future are Krial Energo Stroy plant and strategic enterprise “Rosgeologia”, while national restaurant chain “Kuzina” has technically defaulted already. Even the defense industry is not safe from the effects of the interest rate hike. Sergey Chemezov, the head of the state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec warned, “If we keep operating like this, most of our businesses will go bankrupt. Even arms sales don’t generate enough profit [to service debt at rates above 20 percent].” If these predictions come to be over the next two quarters, Russia’s economy is in for a major “shakeup” – economic growth will slow and inflation rates will keep growing. Very clear sign that the economy is doing well, right? Edited November 11 by Dragan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ters Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Putin cuts payments to Russians for injuries in war against Ukraine Heavy Economic Cost Of Putin's War On Russia Likely To 'Intensify' In Coming Months, UK Says “These costs are highly likely exacerbating financial pressures on businesses, with corporate bankruptcies in Russia reportedly 20% higher in 2024 than they were in 2023.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 (edited) US-Dollar - Russischer Rubel USD - RUB 100.400 Ovo treba proslaviti - sve ide po planu. Edited November 15 by Dragan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klotzen Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Ja bih rekao da im to sada odgovara. Na taj način se obezvređuju plate stanovnika, obzirom da Rublja polako gubi vrednost mogu preko medija da im isperu mozak da to nije ništa strašno a oni će da rade za upola manje plate u odnosu na "zlatno doba" kada je Rublja država na 50 da bi se putin hvalio po svetu kako mu sankcije ne mogu ništa. Manje realne plate u Rusiji znači i manji pritisak na kupovinu strane valute što znači da će lakše kontrolisati kurs. Pad Rublje odgovara izvoznicima koji na taj način imaju nešto veću zaradu u rubljama dok su plate u rubljama ostale iste, a u evrima duplo manje. Takođe zbog sve većeg kursa i prihodi budžeta će se povećati da se smanji deficit. Dakle obrni okreni kreće se u projekat "ajde narode sada malo ti da plaćaš troškove rata, država više ne može". Na duže staze to vodi u kolaps ekonomije, ali realno putin nema drugog izbora, ovo je nešto što mu daje kakvu takvu sigurnost finansija e sad koliko će lonac da krčka dok voda ne izkipi videćemo... Odnosno ima izlaz da progali ratno stanje i pređe na ratnu ekonomiju ali iz nekog razloga on to izbegava od početka rata. Prvi koji će ovo osetiti su realni sektor jer će potrošnja građana da padne zbog sve manjih plata tako da bi moglo tu da bude i bankrota kod nekih koji ne izvoze mnogo nego su vezani samo za rusko tržište. Videćemo da li će Ukrajinci početi da gađaju kompanije iz realnog sektora, to bi takođe moglo da ubrza pad ekonomije u Rusiji. Bio je neki veliki sastanak u Rusiji pre par nedelja i tu su izneti prilično crni scenariji za ekonomiju ako se nastavi kao do sada. Tada su odlučili da neće više braniti kurs ispod 100 po svaku cenu tako da je ovo očekivano. E sad zamislite sada paniku u Kini i Indiji koje imaju velike količine Rubalja sa kojima ne znaju šta će, oni će takođe da snose troškove jer taj novac gubi vrednost. Dakle može da se zaboravi na korišćenje rublje u međunarodnom plaćanju ako neće više braniti kurs. Ovo je ono gde se rat odlučuje, zato u zadnje vreme više pratim to nego front. Ni jedna strana neće dobiti rat na frontu sa tim napredovanjima od par stotina metara dnevno nego ili kolaps ekonomije ili pregovori i neki kompromis. Naravno ovo može i Ukrajini da se desi ako se pomoć smanji ali po zadnjim izjavama Zelenskog on samo traži oružje a za novac za funkcionisanje države kaže da imaju dovoljno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 (edited) 7 hours ago, Klotzen said: ... Prvi koji će ovo osetiti su realni sektor jer će potrošnja građana da padne zbog sve manjih plata tako da bi moglo tu da bude i bankrota kod nekih koji ne izvoze mnogo nego su vezani samo za rusko tržište. ... Nesto poput ovoga: Najmanje tri ruske rafinerije morale su zaustaviti preradu ili smanjiti proizvodnju zbog velikih gubitaka usred ograničenja izvoza, rastućih cijena sirove nafte i visokih troškova zaduživanja ... Ruske željeznice očekuju da će troškovi kamata dosegnuti 7 milijardi dolara u 2025 Ruske željeznice očekuju da će troškovi otplate kamata sljedeće godine doseći 7 milijardi dolara, što sugerira porast od oko 4 milijarde dolara, pokazuje dokument tvrtke u koji je Reuters imao uvid, dok tvrtke i vlada krive visoke stope za usporavanje rasta ulaganja. Monopol u državnom vlasništvu, koji u prosjeku prevozi 3,3 milijuna metričkih tona tereta dnevno i ključni je logistički kotačić u moskovskom industrijskom stroju, jedno je od mnogih poduzeća koja se bore s kamatama koje su već dosegle 21%. Sergey Chemezov, chief of Russia's defense conglomerate Rostec and Putin's former KGB associate, cautioned that numerous firms might collapse under the financial strain. "These costs are highly likely exacerbating financial pressures on businesses, with corporate bankruptcies in Russia reportedly 20% higher in 2024 than they were in 2023." Around Thirty Russian Airlines Now Face Potential Bankruptcy in 2025 The retail sector is especially vulnerable. Russia’s Union of Shopping Centers has petitioned the government for critical relief measures, including subsidized interest rates of 7-10%, debt restructuring, and payment deferrals of five to 10 years, reports Kommersant. Without such interventions, the union warns, 200 shopping centers could face bankruptcy within the coming months. Similarly, office and warehouse owners are attempting to renegotiate terms with creditors. Russia’s War Economy Is Hitting Its Limits Key weapons are running out as Moscow tries to mobilize ever more labor and resources. ... Edited November 15 by Dragan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klotzen Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Ima tu uticaja i kursa ali ovo su više problemi zbog te visoke kamatne stope + sankcije. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted Saturday at 10:55 AM Share Posted Saturday at 10:55 AM (edited) Russia’s rising stagflation threat Who’s to blame? Russian business leaders line up to attack Nabiullina Figures of the week Russia economy panic as ruble plunges - 'Putin will be worried' about huge problems Edited Saturday at 10:57 AM by Dragan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tex_Willer Posted Saturday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:24 PM Lagano bacuska stize dinar, sta je taj narod od 1917 docekao nedao Bog nikome...Ni pre toga nije bajno bilo, ali kontrola i beda od 1917 su na strasnom nivou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted Tuesday at 12:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:29 PM (edited) Ruske železnice su prestale da šalju kontejnere na najveći terminal u Moskovskoj oblasti za 10 dana Spoiler Ruske železnice su prestale da šalju kontejnere na jedan od glavnih kontejnerskih terminala u Moskovskoj oblasti - Seljatino - za 10 dana, rekli su zaposleni u kompaniji koji rade sa ovim terminalima. Ograničenje je na snazi od 12. novembra do 21. novembra i zbog činjenice da je terminal pretrpan, a Moskovska železnica je preopterećena, proizilazi iz dokumenata Ruskih železnica. Slična situacija je i u drugom velikom terminalu - Elektrougli. Ni vozovi sa kontejnerima ne mogu stići tamo - više od 10 dana stoje oko 1000 kilometara od glavnog grada, između Perma i Kirova. Kašnjenja u isporuci su ogromna - mesec dana se smatra dobrim vremenom, a dva meseca više nisu neuobičajena, ključne stanice na uvoznoj ruti od Dalekog istoka do centralne Rusije začepljene su napuštenim vozovima, od kojih je lokomotiva bila odvojena i ostavljena na sporednim kolosijecima na neodređeno vreme, kažu špediteri. U većini slučajeva, Ruske železnice objašnjavaju potrebu da se voz ostavi u praznom hodu zbog nedostatka voznih vozila i posada lokomotiva, Zaposleni u transportnim kompanijama objašnjavaju. Kompaniji nedostaje 2,5 hiljade vozača, rekao je Dmitrij Šahanov, zamenik generalnog direktora Ruskih železnica. Problem je toliko ozbiljan da su se početkom novembra šefovi nekoliko velikih železničkih operatera žalili na Ruske železnice predsedničkom savetniku Igoru Levitinu. Oni pišu da se njihovi špediteri sve više suočavaju sa nedostatkom vagona za utovar. Prema njihovim procenama, već sredinom oktobra, 35-40% tereta namenjenog za otpremu u centralni deo zemlje nije utovareno na Zapadno-sibirsku železnicu. da Ruske železnice namerno potcenjuju planove za utovar za najmanje četvrtinu, uvode neviđena ograničenja za povratak praznih vagona na Istok i napuštaju vozove. Državna kompanija ne ispunjava najavljene planove za razvoj infrastrukture, navode autori žalbe. Sve ovo stvara pretnju izvozu uvoza sa Dalekog istoka, operateri oglašavaju uzbunu. Pre mesec dana, Ruske železnice obavestile su špeditere da je skoro 600 vozova u stanju mirovanja širom zemlje - a samo desetina njih bila je na Dalekom istoku, kažu zaposleni u logističkim kompanijama. Na kraju krajeva, kontejneri koji su stigli do centralnog dela Rusije stoje kilometarski zidovi na ključnim transportnim čvorištima: u njima nema šta da se vrati na Istok, jer je glavni izvoz Rusije sirovine ili hrana, objašnjava šef špediterske kompanije. Retail alcohol sales in Russia hit a record 184.2 million decaliters between January and October 2024, the RBC business news outlet reported Monday, citing data from market regulators. The increase in alcohol consumption coincides with a rise in alcohol dependency rates reported by Russia’s state statistics agency, marking the first such increase in a decade. Edited Tuesday at 01:48 PM by Dragan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fancy Posted Tuesday at 12:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:46 PM Zanimljiv momenat, ako se ralizuje, bravo za braću Черногория может ввести визовый режим для россиян (Montenegro May Introduce Visa Regime for Russians) Spoiler Montenegro is going to introduce visas for citizens of Russia and Belarus to bring its visa policy in line with the Schengen rules, Dan writes , citing government sources. According to them, this could happen in the near future. The authorities are waiting for an official request from the European Union, since Montenegro is a candidate for joining the union. As part of this course, a visa regime will also need to be introduced for India, Iran, China, Pakistan, Turkey, etc. But due to the war with Ukraine, Russia is at the top of the list of countries whose citizens should be deprived of the opportunity to freely enter Montenegro. This step will reduce the influx of tourists and residents, who make a significant contribution to the economy of the republic. In 2023, Montenegro was visited by 246 thousand Russians. They stayed there for an average of 15 days and became record holders for the number of overnight stays (3.7 million). According to the local Ministry of Internal Affairs, more than 26 thousand Russian citizens with various residence permits live in the country, while 1,146 of them have permanent residence. In 2023, the contribution of Russians and Ukrainians to the budget of Montenegro reached 163 million euros due to VAT revenues, which is a significant part of its state revenues. However, synchronising the visa policy with the Schengen zone is necessary for Montenegro to achieve its aspirations for European integration. Sources note that the authorities may try to achieve specific agreements for individual countries, but the chances of the EU agreeing to make an exception are slim. The visa regime will further exacerbate tensions between Montenegro and Russia. Relations between the countries have deteriorated since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In September 2022, the republic expelled almost the entire diplomatic staff of the Russian embassy. At the same time, several Montenegrin citizens were detained in Podgorica on suspicion of working for Russian special services. Before that, in March and April, five more diplomats were expelled on orders from the security services. Russia responded in kind. As a result, only ambassadors and technical staff remained in both countries . In addition, Moscow declared the then acting Montenegrin ministers of foreign affairs and defense, Ranko Krivokapic and Rasko Konjevic, as well as the former director of the National Security Agency, Savo Kentere, personae non gratae. Earlier, the European Union ordered another Balkan country, Bosnia and Herzegovina, to introduce a visa regime with Russia. It became a candidate for joining the union in December 2022. The EU emphasized that harmonizing visa policies will also be one of the conditions for the Western Balkan countries to receive 6 billion euros, which the European Commission promised to provide them as part of the Development Plan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragan Posted yesterday at 01:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:10 PM Ovako izgleda život u Rusiji tisuću dana od početka rata Spoiler MJESECIMA su po Starom Arbatu, najpoznatijoj ulici Moskve, izloženi plakati kojima se veliča "specijalna operacija" - "rat" je još uvijek zabranjen pojam. Na nizu plakata se hvali "nepobjedivost" ruskog oružja: na plakatu s helikopterom piše "On će te naći. On je zao. On je naša grabljivica", a ispod slike tenka piše: "Čuješ li ga? Buku neizbježne osvete?" Tu je i plakat na kojem su ruski vojnici stilizirani kao ikone, čak i s aurom oko glave. Poruka je i više nego jasna: rat je svetinja. Reći ili tek pomisliti nešto drugo je ravno bogohuljenju. Na jednom plakatu je to sasvim jasno i rečeno: "Ako je Bog uz nas, tko je onda protiv nas?" Građani prolaze pored plakata i jedva da ih još itko primjećuje. Da je rat, to je svima jasno. A jasno im je i da se lako može završiti iza rešetaka ako se kritizira - "diskreditira", kako piše u zakonu. Oporbeni aktivist Ilja Jašin je dospio u logor - gdje je bio do razmjene ovog ljeta, samo zato što je na YouTubeu izjavio da bi moglo biti i istine u izvještajima o pokolju koji su ruski vojnici počinili u Buči, piše Deutsche Welle. I liječnicu u logor U zatvor se ne šalju samo aktivisti: Nadežda Bujanova je pedijatrica, 68 joj je godina i liječi mališane u Moskvi. Nije držala jezik za zubima ni pred jednim dječakom koji je došao na pregled sa svojom mamom, udovicom vojnika palog u Ukrajini. Majka je liječnicu odmah prijavila policiji, a na suđenju nipošto nije bilo jasno što je liječnica doista rekla, a što je majka od toga shvatila. Sudu je i to bilo dovoljno: liječnica je osuđena na pet i pol godina kažnjeničkog logora. Bujanova je iz svog staklenog kaveza u sudnici sve to proglasila "apsurdnim". Ali to nije apsurd, nego stara i dobro poznata svakodnevica i Sovjetskog Saveza i carske Rusije: i zidovi imaju uši, svatko može biti denuncijant. 1000 dana rata u Rusiji znači i 1000 dana ratne propagande. A ona je posvuda: od pješačke zone Moskve pa sve do najzabitijih naselja Sibira. Na televiziji se redaju vijesti o vojnim uspjesima - uvijek su samo uspjesi i razgovori sa "stručnjacima". I svi govore isto: mi nismo ništa krivi, nego su sve to fašisti u Ukrajini i ratni huškači u Europskoj uniji. A naša pobjeda je sigurna. Odličje, novac - i šutnja Posvuda su plakati vojnika na bojišnici, na školskim priredbama mališani plešu u uniformama, svuda su - čak i na tisućama automata za karte za javni prijevoz u Moskvi - oglasi koji pozivaju na vojnu službu. Ako domoljublje nije dovoljna motivacija, onda je tu i novac: piše da se može zaraditi i do 50 tisuća eura već u prvoj godini vojne službe na bojišnici. Tko stenje pod teretom dugova - a takvih je u Rusiji mnogo - uniforma mu se lako može učiniti jedinim rješenjem. 1000 dana rata za Ruse znači i 1000 dana patnji. Diljem gradova Rusije se redaju novi grobovi vojnika čija tijela su stigla u limenim kovčezima. Ruski izvori u svojim vijestima o "pobjedama" i "uspjesima" uopće ne govore o broju žrtava. Novinari britanskog BBC-ja - ta postaja se ne može pratiti u Rusiji - dali su si truda i prebrojali osmrtnice i obavijesti o smrti koje se mogu naći na internetu tako da su već dosad došli do preko 77 tisuća poginulih. To su provjerene informacije, s imenom i prezimenom svakog od njih. Čak i umjerene procjene zapadnih vojnih stručnjaka i obavještajnih službi govore da bi lako moglo biti i dvostruko više poginulih, a da se ne govori o teško ranjenima i budućim ratnim invalidima. U svih 12 godina američkog rata u Vijetnamu je poginulo oko 56 tisuća američkih vojnika, zbog čega je raspoloženje na američkim sveučilištima graničilo s revolucijom. I 26 tisuća poginulih sovjetskih vojnika u Afganistanu je trajno i nepovratno obilježilo čitavo društvo Rusije. Ali, u današnjoj Rusiji i nakon tolikih žrtava vlada grobna tišina: obiteljima se pošalje posmrtno odličje, dobiju i prilično visoku novčanu naknadu tako da im se zatvore usta. Uvjerljiva podrška Putinu? Zapravo još uvijek ruska propagandna mašinerija govori o Ukrajincima kao o "braći" koju su zaveli fašisti, ali u javnosti jedva da ima ikakvog razumijevanja za patnje koje se njima nanose. Je li to strah ili ravnodušnost, teško je reći. Ponekad se - i osobito nakon žestokih napada ruske vojske - na spomenicima i natpisima ulica nazvanih po umjetnicima rođenima u Ukrajini pojavi stručak cvijeća i maleni natpis s porukom "oprostite nam". I na stablima u parkovima se ponekad vide dvije trake, jedna žuta i jedna plava, kao što su boje Ukrajine. Tko to postavlja, to zanima i rusku policiju. Ali nekakvog šireg zgražanja javnosti - nema. Koliko Rusa nakon 1000 dana propagande i pritiska podržava rat i politiku Putina? Naravno da je to gotovo nemoguće točno reći, čak i kad neovisni institut Levada u ispitivanju mnijenja postavlja indirektna pitanja zbog kojih se upitani ne moraju bojati zatvora. Ali i taj institut procjenjuje da Putin uživa uvjerljivu podršku građana. Za državni Institut za sociologiju ruske Akademije znanosti nema ni najmanje sumnje: prema najnovijem istraživanju, objavljenom prošlog tjedna, "specijalnu operaciju" podržava 78% upitanih, a njihov broj raste. Direktor instituta Mihail Gorškov tvrdi da je mnoštvo građana "svakako željelo izraziti svoje mišljenje" i da se "već po ovim brojkama" jasno vidi da "Rusija više nije na koljenima". I to je jedan od natpisa na plakatima u Arbatu: "Ruski medvjed se tek budi. Ovo je samo početak." 1000 dana rata je korjenito promijenilo Rusiju. Borba se ne vodi samo protiv Ukrajine nego i protiv "domaćih izdajnika" u vlastitim redovima. Tko je protiv Putinovog "mudrog vodstva", politike i rata - ili čak ima razumijevanja za Ukrajinu - njemu je pametnije šutjeti ili pobjeći iz Rusije ako neće u logor. Baš kao u ne tako davno doba carske Rusije... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ras kass Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I gazprombank pod sankcijama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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