Epidemija koronavirusa (Covid-19 / SARS-Cov2) - dnevne aktuelnosti iz zemlje i sveta

[Sunshine State]

Ma ima nesto i u ovom:

 

"SA’s low rate of vaccination — only about 25.6 % of the  population has been fully vaccinated — provides fertile ground for a rise in infections. "

 

 

[erwin]

Raspodela ovih 54 umrlih u zadnja dva dana po starosnim grupama:

 

0-9: 2
10-19: 1
20-29: 1
30-39: 6
40-49: 8
50-59: 7
60-69: 7
70-79: 8
80+: 14

Edited December 10, 2021 by erwin

[erwin]

Dobra vest je da je u Gautengu danas prijavljeno za 20% manje novozaraženih nego prošlog petka, što bi moglo da znači da će se talas izduvati pre nego što postane kritično u bolnicama. Nažalost, drugde i dalje raste pa je ukupan broj slučajeva u državi veći nego prošlog petka.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1469400938964307969
https://twitter.com/nicd_sa/status/1466814557154906116

[Tomiprunet]

6 hours ago, vilhelmina said:

 

U Spaniji, Alicante, standardno traze samo popunjenu njihovu zdravstvenu deklaraciju koja, doduse, ukljucuje aploudovan covid certifikat, i nista drugo. Sletela pre neka dva sata i ovog puta, za razliku od pre mesec dana i ranije letos, nije trebao nikakav licni dokument. Samo ocitali QR kod u telefonu i dobrodosli u Espanju 😀.

 

Ulazak u Svajcarsku je obavezan negativan test pored vakcine, ako nema test, moras raditi brzi pa onda jos jedan nakon par dana dok si u karantinu. Samo sto eto kad dolazis vozom u Svajcarsku onda to ne proveravaju

5 hours ago, Sunshine State said:

 

 

Mirujte!!!

 

Zato se pandmija i ne smiruje, zbog vas tak'ih sto ne mirujete na jednom mestu!! 😛

Ja jos uvek sa mojom starom KN 95, sad u Januaru ce biti godinu dana kako je ne menjam, niti perem.

Bas mi je super, navikao sam na nju.

[erwin]

Quote

False vaccination certificates can have dramatic consequences, as shown by the story of a woman in her fifties at the Raymond Poincaré Hospital in Garches, near Paris.
On October 30, a 57-year-old woman was admitted to the hospital's intensive care unit in respiratory distress. She had a vaccination certificate and no medical history or comorbidities. However, she needed to be intubated and on a machine to breathe. 
Her condition prompted resuscitators to perform a series of tests to understand what exactly was going on. They discovered that the patient had no antibodies, despite her vaccination. The patient died the next day. When questioned, her husband finally confessed that a doctor had given him a false certificate for the sum of 200 euros in cash. 
The medical staff of the hospital now regrets not having had the right information to be able to administer the best possible therapeutic treatment, which could have perhaps saved her life. The patient's family is now considering filing a complaint against the doctor.

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/les-infos-de-18h-coronavirus-admise-avec-un-faux-certificat-de-vaccination-elle-decede-en-reanimation-7900105037 (prevod: Deepl)

Edited December 10, 2021 by erwin

[Laki21]

[shonke]

 
Vaši se izveštaji očito ne slažu. Toplica kaže belo a Kosančić crno, da li to ti Kosančiću crnim hoćeš da me obeshrabriš a ti Toplice belim da me ohrabriš

Jel do mene problem ako sam pomislio na jednu pesmu moby dick-a citajuci kraj rečenice? [emoji2955]

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk

False vaccination certificates can have dramatic consequences, as shown by the story of a woman in her fifties at the Raymond Poincaré Hospital in Garches, near Paris.
On October 30, a 57-year-old woman was admitted to the hospital's intensive care unit in respiratory distress. She had a vaccination certificate and no medical history or comorbidities. However, she needed to be intubated and on a machine to breathe. 
Her condition prompted resuscitators to perform a series of tests to understand what exactly was going on. They discovered that the patient had no antibodies, despite her vaccination. The patient died the next day. When questioned, her husband finally confessed that a doctor had given him a false certificate for the sum of 200 euros in cash. 
The medical staff of the hospital now regrets not having had the right information to be able to administer the best possible therapeutic treatment, which could have perhaps saved her life. The patient's family is now considering filing a complaint against the doctor.

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/les-infos-de-18h-coronavirus-admise-avec-un-faux-certificat-de-vaccination-elle-decede-en-reanimation-7900105037 (prevod: Deepl)
Meni ovde nije jasno sta bi oni drugačije uradili po pitanju terapije da su znali da žena zapravo nije vakcinisana? Koja je razlika u terapijskom protokolu za vax i novac pacijente?

Sent from my Redmi Note 7 using Tapatalk

[Tomiprunet]

Pricam sa sestrom, i dodjemo do korone. Ona sva izbezumljena prica o nekoliko njenih prijatelja koji su imali problema. Kaze jedan njen prijatelj i njegov deda imali neke slabe simptome ali ajd da se testiraju. On oko 40 , deda 80. I pozitivni, dedu na snimanje pluca. Kaze imao neke 3 tacke. Kaze doktor deda mora ostati u bolnici a on moze ici kuci. Nije bilo sanse da dedi dozvole da ode kuci iako su blagi simptomi . Posle par dana deda umro. Nisu ga videli od onog puta.
Drugi slucaj isto njena prijateljica inace medicinska sestra iz su bolnice u penziji. Pozitivna oni nju u covid odeljenje jer je imala koagulaciju krvi. Medicinari nisu znali da je ona bila medicinar. I tako dali joj terapiju neki lek i neki za razredjivanje krvi. Kaze ona od ovog prvog je bila kao osamucena, drogirana. Kaze ide na wc lupa se po zidovima u hodniku, nema nikog da pomogne. Kaze sutradan nema leka za razredivanje krvi. Pita ona sestricu zasto su sklonili lek. Kaze sestra da je takva procedura terapija. Kaze ova da zeli da vidi doktora. Kad je doktor dosao ona kaze ko je i da je radila u bolnici i da joj nije jasno zasto su joj sklonili lek za razredjivanje krvi. Doktor je istog trenutka vratio lek u terapiju.

Isto sestrin prijatelj se zalio da uz taj neki lek su kao drogirani, mamurni. ...

Ne znam a ni ona se ne seca koji je lek.

Nije ovo sada , vec negde u oktobru bilo.

[erwin]

Južnoafrikanci su juče ujutru držali KZŠ, evo sažetka i snimka:

 

Quote

Mia Malan, 21h, 18 tweets, 12 min read

Update on #Omicron in SA via @Dr_Groome from @nicd_sa (presented @ Fri's @heatlhza press briefing):

[Thread]

1. The 7 day moving average of new #COVID19 cases = increased 40-fold between 16 Nov (332) + 8 Dec (13,237)
2. This increase is much steeper than in any previous wave

2. @Dr_Groome:
1. The increase in new #COVID19 cases = mostly driven by Gauteng, where the #Omicron outbreak started
2. Left graph = absolute nr of cases, right graph = incidence (new cases), accounted for population size = starting to see increases in other provinces too

3. What do new #COVID19 cases look like by age?
1. Early on in the #Omicron wave we saw more cases in younger age groups
2. Currently, the incidence is highest in the 20-39 year and 40-59 year group, followed by the 60+ year group

4. @Dr_Groome:
There has been a dramatic increase in the test positivity rate (the % of tests that come out positive) - this increase is steeper than in any previous wave:
- Between 14 + 28 Nov the + rate increased from 2.5% to 24.9%
- Yesterday (Thu), the + rate was: 29.8%

5. @Dr_Groome:
1. This is how positivity test rates are distributed across SA (red = over 30%)
2. See how the red is concentrated in the north of SA in Gauteng, but is now filtering to the rest of the country

6. @Dr_Groome:
1. This is a table of test positivity rates for provinces
2. Gauteng's (35%) + rate is the highest (where the #Omicron outbreak in SA started), followed by Northwest, MP and Limpopo (all 3 = neighboring provinces of GP)

7. Which SA provinces have officially entered a 4th wave?
@Dr_Groome:
1. Gauteng
2. Northwest
3. Mpumalanga

8. What's happening with reproductive (R) numbers? (This is how many other people 1 infected person will infect):
1. Nationally our R nr = 2.55 (this is the highest R nr SA has seen since the start of #COVID19)
2. In Gauteng (where SA's #Omicron outbreak started) the R nr = 3.06

9. What's happening with hospitalisations?
1. The right graph shows the increase in hospitalisations in both the private and public sector
2. The left graph shows a drop off, but that is due to a delay in the reporting of cases, not an actual drop in cases

10. The left graph compares the nr of new cases (orange) with hospital admissions (grey) for all waves:

The diffs with the 4th (#Omicron) wave = admissions start later (a while after a steep increase in cases; admissions in previous waves = along with an increase in cases).

11. Early indications of #Omicron hospitalisations, based on SA data:
1. We're starting to see a disconnect between cases and hospitalisations
2. Right graph = there is a much lower % of patients getting admitted (blue) - but could be because it's still early in the wave

12. What's happening with #COVID19 deaths?
1. We haven't seen any significant increase nationally
2. We're starting to see small increases in Gauteng (where SA's #Omicron outbreak started)

13. This table shows increases in #COVID19 hospital admissions/deaths in provinces:
1. Gauteng: Increase from an average of 32.57 (for 2 weeks) to 181.07 (the average of the following 2 weeks) = 455% increase
2. Deaths in Gauteng = 68% increase

14. AGE breakdown 4 GAUTENG admissions (last 3 weeks):
1. We started off with a larger % of admissions in younger (20/below) groups, but that is now changing
2. We're now seeing the % of younger admissions decreasing + the % of admissions in older groups (slightly) increasing

15. GAUTENG admission data broken down into smaller age bands:
1. 0-5 years = a high % of admissions initially, but this has decreased from 14% of admissions to 7% of admissions over the last 3 weeks
2. 60+ admissions have increased from about 13% to just over 16%

16. @Dr_Groome:
1. This graph shows that the #COVID19 admissions we're seeing are mostly among the age groups with low vaccination rates
2. This is in line with evidence that vaccines protect people from falling severely ill with COVID (so they don't need hospitalisation)

17. What is defined as severe illness?
= People with acute respiratory distress syndrome, those needing oxygen or are admitted to ICU

Note: The data presented = early stage data, which means many beds = still available + docs are more likely to admit patients with mild disease

18. Summary:
1. The nr of new #COVID19 cases are on a sharp increase and so is the test positivity rate
2. % of younger admissions = changing (becoming a smaller % of total admissions)
3. No signals of more severe disease
4. Most hospital admissions = unvaccinated people

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1469268349679030274.html

 

 

 

[Sunshine State]

3 hours ago, shonke said:

Meni ovde nije jasno sta bi oni drugačije uradili po pitanju terapije da su znali da žena zapravo nije vakcinisana? Koja je razlika u terapijskom protokolu za vax i novac pacijente?

 

To i ja razmisljam, obzirom da poslednji protokol lecenja (bar u Srbiji) nema poseban protokol/terapiju za lecenje vakcinisanih.

[erwin]

Nova zvanična britanska procena omikrona: ima prednost u širenju nad deltom sigurno zbog rezaražavanja tj. izbegavanja imuniteta stečenog vakcinisanjem ili preležavanjem delte i ranijih sojeva, ali možda i sam po sebi (tj. među potpuno nezaštićenima), kažu da je i u tom pogledu zarazan najmanje kao delta. Još nisu napravili procenu je li blaži ili ne, kažu da nemaju dovoljno podataka.

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040064/9_December-2021-risk-assessment-for-SARS_Omicron_VOC-21NOV-01_B.1.1.529.pdf

Edited December 11, 2021 by erwin

[erwin]

Britanski ministar: situacija je vrlo zabrinjavajuća, dobili smo vrlo neprijatne informacije tako da razmatramo promenu ograničenja. Imamo najveći dnevni broj infekcija još od 9. januara, omikron se duplira se za 2-3 dana u Engleskoj, a možda i brže u Škotskoj, i čini preko 30% slučajeva u Londonu iako je njegovo prisustvo prvi put detektovano pre samo dve nedelje.

 

 

[erwin]

 

[Sunshine State]

@erwin

 

Hvala na svim informacijama!!

Vecina ovih info sto vidimo do sad ne prikazuje znacajan porast hospitalizacija ili ozbiljnije slucajeve, bar ne medju vakcinisanima, sto bi znacilo da bi Evropa trebalo da bude u boljoj poziciji nego Afrika.

 

 

[erwin]

Britanija da, kačio je Merdok juče ovu raspodelu stanovništa po zaštićenosti za Englesku.

 

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469427353117986829

 

Za Srbiju baš i nisam siguran koliki je sad procenat potpuno nezaštićenog stanovništva.

Edited December 11, 2021 by erwin

[erwin]

Procena iz tehničkog izveštaja o omikronu objavljenog juče je da bi u Britaniji već na katolički Božić imali milion slučaja dnevno ako ništa ne preduzmu i nastavi se dupliranje za 2,5 dana.

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf (strana 28)

Edited December 11, 2021 by erwin

[erwin]

 

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1469456805491138560

[erwin]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[erwin]

Karakteristike prvih slučajeva omikrona u SAD:

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7050e1.htm?s_cid=mm7050e1_w

[erwin]

  

Quote

COVID-19: Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England without tougher restrictions - experts

The Omicron variant could cause between 25,000 to 75,000 deaths in England over the next five months if no additional measures are taken beyond Plan B, according to experts.

New modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) used experimental data to look at how Omicron may transmit as the country heads into 2022.

It suggests that Omicron could potentially cause more cases and hospitalisations in England than during the wave in January 2021, if additional control measures are not taken.

Under the best-case scenario, the variant could lead to a peak of more than 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 hospitalisations and 24,700 deaths between 1 December 2021 and 30 April 2022, the projection suggests.

The optimistic scenario is one where Omicron's immunity escape is low and boosters prove highly effective.

Measures such as restrictions on indoor hospitality, closure of some entertainment venues, and limits on gathering sizes from early next year would be sufficient to substantially control this wave, reducing hospitalisations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600, the experts say.

Under the worst-case scenario (high immune escape and lower effectiveness of boosters), if no additional control measures are taken, there could be 492,000 hospitalisations and 74,800 deaths.

In this scenario, the experts estimate that stronger measures may be required to keep the number of hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak.

Dr Rosanna Barnard, who co-led the research, said that while there is still a lot of uncertainty over Omicron, "these early projections help guide our understanding about potential futures in a rapidly evolving situation".

"In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in the early part of 2022 would be reduced with mild control measures such as working from home," she said.

"However, our most pessimistic scenario suggests that we may have to endure more stringent restrictions to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed.

"Mask-wearing, social distancing and booster jabs are vital, but may not be enough.

"Nobody wants to endure another lockdown, but last-resort measures may be required to protect health services if Omicron has a significant level of immune escape or otherwise increased transmissibility compared to Delta.

"It is crucial for decision-makers to consider the wider societal impact of these measures, not just the epidemiology."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-could-cause-between-25-000-and-75-000-deaths-in-england-without-tougher-restrictions-experts-12492584

[Sunshine State]

U Indiji je pojavom delte, broj umrlih apsolutno pratio skok broja zarazenih (skoro identicne krive, pomerene za nekih nedelju dana).

 

U JA toga (jos uvek) nema, iako je skok broja zarazenih drastican (vozim, ne mogu da upload slike, pogledajte ovde 7-dnevni trend za JA):

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/

 

Toliko od Toplice, za sad!

Edited December 11, 2021 by Sunshine State

[Akiro]

Mada nema veze sa temom, ali na pola sata sam zaboravio i Covid i sivi i sumorni Beograd i Srbiju, koliko sam se smejao:

https://youtu.be/YDe71S1bf5I

https://youtu.be/wU42CMtgzY4

 

 

 

[erwin]

18 (1,4%) hospitalizovanih među dosad zaraženima omikronom u Danskoj. Nevakcinisanih među zaraženima je 177, tj. 13,8%.

 

 

https://files.ssi.dk/covid19/omikron/statusrapport/rapport-omikronvarianten-10122021-ek56-version2

Edited December 11, 2021 by erwin

[handys]

16 minutes ago, erwin said:

Nevakcinisanih među zaraženima je 177, tj. 13,8%.

 

Eto, ipak su antivakseri bili u pravu. (sam cu se ispratiti 🙃)

[erwin]

Prvi Izraelac koji se potvrđeno zarazio omikronom, lekar koji ga je pokupio na simpozijumu u Londonu, vratio se na posao, ali je i dalje malaksao. Trostruko je vakcinisan Fajzerom i preležao je kod kuće.

 

Quote

Ten days after Dr. Elad Maor was diagnosed as the country’s first Omicron variant COVID-19 patient, the cardiologist returned to work at Sheba Medical Center.

“I am still weak,” he told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday from one of the hospital’s bustling cafeterias on his first day back.
Maor tested positive for COVID-19 on November 28 and was diagnosed as having the variant a few days later. He was fully vaccinated with three shots of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine. (...)
The variant hit Maor harder than he expected, causing a fever for 48 hours and extreme fatigue for 72 hours. He said he had muscle aches, too. And even now, Maor said he is not feeling back to himself.

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/israels-first-omicron-covid-case-i-am-still-weak-688107

Edited December 11, 2021 by erwin