
nonick
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Fantom odma spicio par 1000 reci. 🙂 Donald Trump has finally blinked - but it's not the stock markets that have forced him to act The US president had brushed off the sour equity market reaction to his tariffs as being akin to "medicine" that had to be taken. ... But, as ever, it is the bond markets that have forced Mr Trump to blink - and, make no mistake, blink is what he has done. To begin with, following the imposition of his tariffs - which were justified by some cockamamie mathematics and a spurious equation complete with Greek characters - bond prices rose as equities sold off. That was not unusual: big sell-offs in equities, such as those seen in 1987 and in 2008, tend to be accompanied by rallies in bonds. However, this week has seen something altogether different, with equities continuing to crater and US government bonds following suit. At the beginning of the week yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds, traditionally seen as the safest of safe haven investments, were at 4.00%. By early yesterday, they had risen to 4.51%, a huge jump by the standards of most investors. This is important. ... Now part of the selling appears to have been down to investors concluding, probably rightly, that Mr Trump's tariffs would inject a big dose of inflation into the US economy - and inflation is the enemy of all bond investors. Part of it appears to be due to the fact the US Treasury had on Tuesday suffered the weakest demand in nearly 18 months for $58bn worth of three-year bonds that it was trying to sell. But in this particular case, the selling appears to have been primarily due to investors, chiefly hedge funds, unwinding what are known as 'basis trades' - in simple terms a strategy used to profit from the difference between a bond priced at, say, $100 and a futures contract for that same bond priced at, say, $105. In ordinary circumstances, a hedge fund might buy the bond at $100 and sell the futures contract at $105 and make a profit when the two prices converge, in what is normally a relatively risk-free trade. So risk-free, in fact, that hedge funds will 'leverage' - or borrow heavily - themselves to maximise potential returns. The sudden and violent fall in US Treasuries this week reflected the fact that hedge funds were having to close those trades by selling Treasuries. ... Of course, Mr Trump will not admit he has blinked, claiming last night some investors had got "a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid". And it is perfectly possible that markets face more volatile days ahead: the spectre of Mr Trump's tariffs being reinstated 90 days from now still looms and a full-blown trade war between the US and China is now raging. But Mr Trump has blinked. The bond vigilantes have brought him to heel. This president, who by his aggressive use of emergency executive powers had appeared to be more powerful than any of his predecessors, will never seem quite so powerful again.
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Bez zahebancije, ima snimak sa Foxa gde jedan iz Trampove administracije prica pre neki dan da ce za $1.5 vise ljudi kupovati americke carape. Sto sigurno bi, ali ako oni misle da ce moci da popune fabrike radnicima da prave carape je samo jos jedan biser njihove maloumnosti. Jon Stewart je juce lepo opisao povratak fabrika elektronike, sto su isto promovisali Trampisti ovih dana. Radne snage jednostavno nema u USA. Proslog meseca su bili kod mene salesmen iz Kanzasa, prave neke hidraulicne opreme sto mi kupujemo od njih, I pricaju da uopste nema radne snage, ne mogu da nadju obicne radnike a strucne ni toliko. Zero. Jedino bi mogli da uvezu oko 20 do 30 milona radnika, I da potrose vise para nego sto imaju na trejing i skolovanje itd. MAGA bi bila odusevljena novim imigrantima koja otimaju americka radna mesta. 😀
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Kina odgovorila: China calls Trump’s new tariff threat ‘a mistake upon a mistake’ Link ... Then, after the US president vowed to ratchet up tariffs again on Monday, Beijing once again vowed to hold the line. “The US threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake,” its Commerce Ministry said a statement. The threat “once again exposes the blackmailing nature of the US,” the statement said. “China will never accept it. If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.” Juče Bessent kaze da je petak bio izuzetno dobar dan na berzi, kaze ogromna količina trgovine. Jbt, kako se ne stide vise? Ako Kina ostane na ovome sto kažu, sreda ce biti gora nego cela prošla nedelja odjednom.
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Kad si uhvacena o neznanju cinjenica onda spinujes ili direktno lazes. Ja sam samo rekao na pocetku da te tarife na mlecne prizvode, koje su obostrane i imaju setovane granice pre nego sto budu upotrebljene - i do sada nisu, nisu uzrok uvodjenja tarifa prema Kanadi. Zvanicna verzija je da su to fentalin i ilegalna imigracija, ali nezvanicno je 100% da oslabi kanadsku auto industirju i celokupnu kanadsku ekonomiju. I ti si onda izmislila nesto da su Tramp i administracija sigurno rekli nasoj vladi sta je to tacno sto hoce. I ti uporno ponavljas mlecne proizvode? Zasto to ponavljas? Jer mislis da je to uzrok americkim tarifama na auto industriju, aluminium i celik (trgovina koja je 200 puta veca od mlecnih proizvoda)? Ako ti imas neki insajder info pls, reci. Pa kako da se odreknemo od necaga sto nije trazeno od nas? Pa verovati da on zna najbolje bez ikakvih cinjenica je religija. I ti radis dobar posao u tome. Kako ono kazu sada, sada ekonomisti znaju kako su se osecali naucnici u zdravstvu kada je on naglasno razmisljao pred celim svetom kako da se unese bleach u ljudsko telo da bi unistio koronu. Zasto nisu koristili tarife stranih zemalja u formuli za reciprocal tariffs?
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A ima i ovo, novo, od danas. Mozda ce biti razlaz uskoro, Mask nece tarife ali Tramp hoce: In an exchange Saturday on his social media platform, X, Musk slammed Peter Navarro, the Trump administration’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, who has championed the tariffs. “A PhD in Econ from Harvard is a bad thing, not a good thing,” Musk posted about Navarro’s academic background. The Tesla CEO also added of Navarro: “He ain’t built sh*t.” Link
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Na ostalo cu posle ali ovo ne mogu da verujem da pišeš. Ceo svet se smeje, uključujući i USA, vec su se i neki republikanci oglasili u vezi ovoga. Ta formula koji su koristili za reciprocal tarife uopste ne uzima u obzir tarife. Jer se ti zahebavas samnom, zasto pišeš ovo? Hoćeš da napisem nesto da dobijem ban? Ovo je prosto nemoguće? Pa ne da ne znaju kao se računaju tarife nego su pingvini doktori ekonomskih nauka pored njih. Ova formula sto su koristili ce biti zapamćeno u historiji čovečanstva kao nešto najgluplje i najzlonarmenije u svetu.
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Opet sam dosadan i ne razumem sta pises. Ovo je vec sigurno do mene. Evo necu vise kad mi kazes na koje tarife Kanada insistira? Super, samo da saznamo koji su ti razlozi, narocito za Kanadu, i idemo zajedno u Golden Age. Aleluja, najzad smo stigl do religije, sto sam i sumnjao od pocetka 🙂 Ja nisam pricao o VAT, ne znam odakle ovo, ali verujem da Tramp ne razume mnogo toga 🙂. Pa ako je trade deficit / trade import value / 2 = reciprocal tariff, sta da vise i pricamo (ali znam, ovo kao kad banci kazes da su ti nekretnine vredne 20 milijardi ali ustvari je samo 2). Ono sto su oni sastavili sve sa tim tabelama bi svako, narocito a mozda i jedini uslov, onaj koji pojma nema sa ekonomijom, sastavio ujednom gledajuci uvece Netflix sa strane jer ujutro treba Tramp to da prezentuje. Sigurno znaju sta je sales tax, ali to nije ni tema.