Loser, Surprisingly: The Dallas Mavericks’ Quest for a Two-Way Wing
On the surface, Dallas should be a deadline winner. The Mavericks traded Grant Williams, the seldom-used Seth Curry, and a 2027 first-round pick (with top-two protections) for P.J. Washington. Just about every other team that added a good player at the deadline received a winner’s grade in this column; why not Dallas?
Well, it’s unclear just how good Washington is. His scoring is mostly empty calories; he doesn’t rebound, draw free throws, or create open shots for teammates. Advanced stats loathe the former Hornet. DARKO thinks he makes his team 1.5 points worse than average, per 100 possessions. Estimated plus-minus rates him worse, at minus-2.2 per 100. And box plus-minus hates him most of all, at minus-3.0 per 100 this year, one of the worst marks in the league.
Washington has the promise of a positionless 3-and-D contributor. But in reality, he doesn’t fulfill his potential in either part of that formula: His 3-point percentage has declined for four straight seasons, down to 32 percent this year, and his defensive effort has waned as a victim of Charlotte’s broader malaise. At the very least, it’s difficult to imagine that Washington will do much to boost Dallas’s 22nd-ranked defense.
There are important contextual caveats that color Washington’s performance to date and that could push this trade more into the winners column for the Mavericks. Maybe Washington will perk up once he plays in games that matter? Maybe he’ll score more efficiently with Luka Doncic setting him up on the perimeter?
But acquiring this context-dependent, hypothetical upgrade cost Dallas what is essentially its last valuable trade chip: its 2027 first. This move comes after the Mavericks traded 2030 swap rights to the Spurs in the offseason, as part of the Williams sign-and-trade. To Dallas’s credit, the front office recognized that Williams didn’t fit on this roster and didn’t treat him as a sunk cost. (Williams’s play had clearly declined on both ends; given that Joe Mazzulla didn’t trust him in Boston, either, this means that Williams has worn out his welcome two seasons in a row.) But this transaction sequence means the team essentially traded a first-round pick and a swap for a player with uncertain ability on both ends.
Dallas also traded 2028 swap rights to the Thunder on deadline day as part of a three-team deal that brought Daniel Gafford to town. Gafford is a good player signed to a reasonable contract, but he can’t share the court with Dereck Lively II—neither center has made a 3-pointer this season—so Dallas effectively gave up even more draft capital for a backup center.
If Washington and Gafford don’t make the Mavericks contenders—and they’re still probably the sixth-best team in the West, maybe, right now—Dallas could rue the opportunity cost when it’s unable to make future moves to surround Luka with talent.
Some teams go all in for stars like Damian Lillard and Kevin Durant. Others, apparently, do it for the third-best players on the Hornets and Wizards.
