Jump to content
Vox92.net Forum
Sign in to follow this  
McCarthy

MAKROEKONOMIJA: Novosti, projekcije, diskusija

Recommended Posts

Quote

 

US economy grows faster than expected

BBC

26 April 2019

The US economy grew much faster than expected in the first quarter of the year, helped by a jump in exports and by firms building up stocks of goods.

The economy expanded at an annualised pace of 3.2% in the January-to-March period, well above analysts' forecasts.

The economy has accelerated since the previous quarter, when it grew at a pace of 2.2%.

However, some analysts warned growth had been boosted by one-off factors, and could slow in the months ahead.

_106608491_usgdp_estimate-nc.png

 

The growth figures - which are subject to revision in the months ahead - appeared to dispel any fears of an economic slowdown.

Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross welcomed the data, saying: "The Trump economy has repeatedly defied the sceptics who predicted an economic downturn and has restored America's position in the world as a consistent source of economic growth."

Trade helped to boost growth in the first quarter, as exports rose while imports fell. Companies also built up inventories of goods at the fastest rate since the second quarter of 2015.

However, consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity in the US, grew by only 1.2% in the first quarter, down from a rate of 2.5% previously.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nema za njih zime, koliko god ljudi trubili kako ‘ne valja ovo ne valja ono’ apokalipsa i sl. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ovo je samo GDP, izuzetno problematican nacin merenja stanja u celoj ekonomiji a posebno impakta na zivot ljudi. Nejednakost i dalje raste a to je zapravo mnogo veci problem i ekonomski i socijalno.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Ovo je samo GDP, izuzetno problematican nacin merenja

 

Manje problematican od prognoze 2007. da ce dolar izgubiti status rezervne valute. Sto se jos nije desilo, a proslo je 12 godina.

 

Elem, od svih razvijenih ekonomija, SAD su i dalje najmanje prljava kosulja, dakle najsigurniji ulog by far. Australija i Svajcarska nisu daleko.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, McCarthy said:

 

Manje problematican od prognoze 2007. da ce dolar izgubiti status rezervne valute. Sto se jos nije desilo, a proslo je 12 godina.

Elem, od svih razvijenih ekonomija, SAD su i dalje najmanje prljava kosulja, dakle najsigurniji ulog by far. Australija i Svajcarska nisu daleko.

 

Dobro, status rezervne valute ima i mnogo veze sa vojnom nadmoci i institucijama. To je od velikih sila i dalje najstabilnije u US. Ali, to je i dalje pogled iz perspektive velike sile - iz perspektive obicnog coveka ima jedno 20 zemalja gde je bolje ziveti bez obzira na rezervnu valutu, GDP, itd. A ta perspektiva pojedinca je cak i u americkoj tradiciji ono sto se racuna najvise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Sve zavisi i od obrazovanja i profesije, ako govorimo o zaradama i poslovnim mogucnostima, ali mogu da se slozim sa tobom oko toga da u nekim opstim radnim mestima preferiram recimo Australiju u odnosu na SAD, ali to su nijanse ako imas trazene vestine i znanje.

Edited by McCarthy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Anduril said:

Dobro, status rezervne valute ima i mnogo veze sa vojnom nadmoci i institucijama. To je od velikih sila i dalje najstabilnije u US. Ali, to je i dalje pogled iz perspektive velike sile - iz perspektive obicnog coveka ima jedno 20 zemalja gde je bolje ziveti bez obzira na rezervnu valutu, GDP, itd. A ta perspektiva pojedinca je cak i u americkoj tradiciji ono sto se racuna najvise.

 

8 hours ago, McCarthy said:

Sve zavisi i od obrazovanja i profesije, ako govorimo o zaradama i poslovnim mogucnostima, ali mogu da se slozim sa tobom oko toga da u nekim opstim radnim mestima preferiram recimo Australiju u odnosu na SAD, ali to su nijanse ako imas trazene vestine i znanje.

Ali treba uzeti u obzir i velicinu drzava, odnosno broj stanovnika. Te drzave imaju 10 puta, pa i vise, manje stanovnika od USA. To je jako bitan faktor. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jeste, jako je bitno i uvek se zaboravlja - manje demokratije bez zastite SAD, iako daleko od optimalnog demokratsko-liberalnog drustva, ne bi imale neke vece sanse na dugi rok. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

 

Property prices: Sydney and Melbourne facing steepest declines in two decades

9Finance

Business News

By Matt Dunn

20 hours ago

 

Sydney’s property downturn will be the sharpest in more than two decades, with median house prices expected to dip below $1 million in the coming quarter.

This is the according to the Domain House Price Report for the March quarter, which revealed Sydney house prices have fallen 14.3 per cent from the mid-2017 peak.

The report also detailed Melbourne’s lowest quarterly moderation since June last year and stalling house prices in Brisbane following six years of continuous annual growth.

Perth and Canberra both saw house prices go down, with the nation’s capital suffering the steepest annual fall in a decade, while Adelaide and Hobart were the only two capital cities to buck the national downward trend.

 

SYDNEY

 

House prices fell 3.1 per cent over the quarter and 11.5 per cent over the year to $1,027,962.

Unit prices fell 2.0 per cent over the quarter and 6.5 per cent over the year to $696,935.

Domain Senior Research Analyst Dr Nicola Powell said results show house prices in Sydney are set to dip below $1 million dollar in the next three months, with unit prices also suffering a decline.

 

“Sydney’s current property downturn is the sharpest in more than two decades. It is yet to surpass the duration of the 2004-06 slump but it is coming close to being the longest,” she said.

“If the pace of quarterly decline remains, prices are likely to dip below $1 million in the coming quarter. A six-figure median house price has not been recorded in four years.”

Ms Powell said house prices are 30.2 per cent higher than five years ago and unit prices 20.7 per cent higher, providing many homeowners with substantial equity gain.

“Sydney remains a buyers’ market, although the year has started in a better place than last year ended. Despite lower auction volumes, clearance rates have risen from near historic lows. Domain also recorded a lift in number of views per listing over the first three months of the year - signalling renewed buyer interest,” she said.

“The volume of current listings remains elevated but new listings are shrinking. The fall in new listings is not suggestive of buyers ‘fear of not getting out.’ It paints a picture of Sydney homeowners holding tight, only selling if they have to.”

 

MELBOURNE

 

House prices fell 2.4 per cent over the quarter and 10.4 per cent over the year to $809,468.

Unit prices fell 2.9 per cent over the quarter and 8.3 per cent over the year to $466,892.

Melbourne is also facing its steepest downturn in more than two decades with house prices have falling for five consecutive quarters – currently down 11 per cent from the peak reached at the end of 2017. Unit prices have also deteriorated for four consecutive quarters.

“The upper end of the property market continues to feel the brunt of the downturn but weakness is now being recorded at the lower end,” Dr Powell said.

“An influx of first-home buyer activity, affordability constraints and a targeted approach by the banks to reduce exposure to high debt-to-income borrowers supported entry-level demand.”

 

BRISBANE

 

House prices fell 1.1 per cent over the quarter and 0.3 per cent over the year to $563,666.

Unit prices fell 3.7 per cent over the quarter and 5.2 per cent over the year to $372,852.

Six years of continuous annual growth have come to an end, with Brisbane house prices coming to a standstill.

 

Ms Powell said while homeowners may not be reaping equity gain, flat house prices made Brisbane more appealing than other capital cities. 

“The housing market remains fragmented with houses outperforming units. This has been a trend since mid-2012. Unit prices are 9.6 per cent below the mid-2016 peak, with buyers now able to reap the benefits of purchasing at 2013 prices,” Dr Powell said.

 

“There is growing interest in Queensland. It is the third most popular destination for overseas migrants and is drawing the highest number of interstate movers.

Dr Powell added growing job prospects in the Sunshine State provided the strong underlying demand for housing from both investors and owner-occupiers.

 

ADELAIDE

 

House prices remained flat over the quarter and grew 2.0 per cent over the year to $542,474.

Unit prices fell 2.1 per cent over the quarter and 1.3 per cent over the year to $312,459.

Adelaide is now the third most affordable city to purchase a house, surpassing Perth’s median house price for the first time since 1993. Unit prices also remain the most affordable of all capital cities.

 

“The sustainable pace of annual growth has slowed to a five-and-a-half year low. This weakness provides further evidence that credit access is having an impact on markets that would otherwise have steady growth,” she said.

“As the two biggest housing markets soften, investor interest has migrated to other locations that offer affordability and steady capital gains.”

 

CANBERRA

 

House prices fell 0.9 per cent over the quarter and 2 per cent over the year at $722,440.

Unit prices fell 3.2 per cent over the quarter and 1.7 per cent over the year to $426,719.

Canberra's housing market has shown the first signs of price weakness since 2012, with house prices suffering the steepest annual fall in a decade.

 

“Historically, any pullback in house prices tend to be short and relatively minor, apart from the 1995-97 downturn. Current market conditions are likely to be the same, a short period of softening rather than the correction currently unravelling in Sydney and Melbourne.”

“Unit prices continue to slide over the quarter and year, with the market failing to produce a steady period of price growth since 2009-10. The outlook for apartment prices has been mixed, providing only subdued capital growth over the past five years, up by 4.5 per cent.”

 

PERTH

 

House prices declined 2.5 per cent over the quarter and 5.2 per cent over the year to $529,997.

Unit prices fell 1.1 per cent over the quarter and 5.6 per cent over the year to $347,596.

Encouraging signs of a recovery in Perth’s housing market have come undone after house and unit price falls gathered pace.

 

“House prices are now 14 per cent and unit prices 16.6 per cent below the 2014 peak,” she said.

“Buyers continue to have the upper hand. Improved affordability is providing the ultimate silver lining for prospective homeowners, allowing a purchase to be made at 2011 prices.

“Perth’s recovery is being hindered by a more restrictive lending environment at a time when local confidence is subdued under weak economic conditions.”

 

HOBART

 

House prices grew 3.1 per cent over the quarter and 7 per cent over the year to $478,247.

Unit prices grew 2.6 per cent over the quarter and 8.4 per cent over the year to $363,418.

Hobart remains the best performing city for capital growth and the only city to record growth over the quarter and year for both houses and units.

 

However, homeowners have still witnessed the lowest annual growth since mid-2016.

“In the space of a year-and-a-half, Hobart has gone from the most affordable city to purchase a unit, to more expensive than Adelaide, Darwin and Perth. If the pace of growth continues, Hobart unit prices are likely to overtake Brisbane’s in the coming months,” she said.

 

DARWIN

 

House prices fell 0.1 per cent over the quarter and grew 1.5 per cent over the year to $514,546.

Unit prices fell 2.6 per cent over the quarter and 1.7 per cent over the year to $313,462.

 

House and unit prices continue to be impacted from the weak economic conditions that have ensued post the mining boom.

“A recovery in Darwin’s housing market largely hinges on the government’s attempts at boosting the population, jobs growth and an improvement in the availability of housing credit,” she said.

 

https://finance.nine.com.au/2019/04/29/14/22/just-two-capital-cities-bucking-national-property-price-downturn

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/28/2019 at 9:31 AM, Anduril said:

Nejednakost i dalje raste a to je zapravo mnogo veci problem i ekonomski i socijalno.

 

Zasto bi rast nejednakosti bio tako opasan problem (ostavimo sada po strani da li je on realan, dobro definisan, sta se desava u globalnim okvirima (gde belezimo veliki PAD nejednakost u poslednjih 30ak godina, tj. pomeraj krive raspodele bogatstva sve blize normalnoj krivoj*))? Nisam naisao na neke ubedljive argumente u prilog ove teze***? Nikada nisam cuo da neki realan covek u svom svakodnevnom zivotu (ovde ocigledno ne ubrajam politicke demagoge) kaze "ne svidja mi se zivot ovde, velika je nejednakost, selim se u drugu zemlju da zivim losije, ali tamo je manja nejednakost" - ljudi su gotovo bez izuzetka zainteresovani za APSOLUTNE uslove zivota svoje porodice (o tome svedoci stanje na granicima/migracioni trendovi). Cak naprotiv, istorijski pregled ukazuje da je rast nejednakosti prirodni pratilac rasta drustvenog bogatstva, a da ona opada samo u periodima prirodnih nepogoda, velikih epidemija ili ekstremnog nasilja (ratova, krvolocnih revolucija):

 

The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century

 

 

 

 

 

*

spacer.png

 

 


***Recimo, Branko Milanovic je imao jedu zanimljivu tezu o tome kako je ekonomska nejednakost izazvala WWI, no ona je majstorski pobijena ovde:

Did inequality cause the First World War? Contra Hobson-Lenin-Milanovic

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
Quote

 

Да похвалим Макартија за допинос, али ова прича о сигурним економијама УС, Швица и Аус ме је мало насмејала. Да оставим УС за неки други пут, али политика СНБ са слабљењем ЦХФ , огромним напуцавањем баланс шита ( у $ деноминованим хартијама) и каматним стопама је прилично ризична из више разлога.

Везано за Озијевце, ту такође има више ствари, само да напоменем огромну зависност од извоза у Кину, те самим тим снажну полугу коју Кина има, а и већ користи везано за сировине. Друга ствар је наравно тржиште некретнина. Препоручујем обавезно праћење алтернативних аналитичара, попут Steeve Keena кога јако дуго пратим, а и зарадио сам доста на некима од његових прогноза.

 

 

 

Ne postoji potpuna sigurnost u bilo cemu, to je nonsense per se. Postoje sigurniji i manje sigurniji betovi u dugom roku.

 

Pisao sam o CH/AUS na f92 pre nekoliko meseci, mrzi me da kucam de nuevo, pa prenosim dole u attachmentu.

 

 

OPPP.png1

 

https://forum.b92.net/topic/76080-makroekonomija-novosti-projekcije-diskusija/#entry6159818

 

 

Edited by McCarthy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ne znam gde da postavim pitanje, treba mi podatak koliko je porasla cena potrošačke korpe u periodu 2012-2019.g, odnosno, rast vrednosti prosečnih plata u Srbiji u istom periodu.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 
 
 
2 minutes ago, Splendini said:

 

Грешка је била што тада на почетку тражења ниси купио, већ је било оно класично “то је нереално”😀, ту си изгубио ренту за тај период, плус на расту цена, или преведено бољу локацију или квадратуру, али за проливеним млеком не вреди плакати, нек ти је са срећом😀. Жао ми само јер сам на време писао на форуму како стоје ствари, има црно на бело, постављао сам и овде линк. Али је разумљиво да је људски много лакше идентификовати се са бајкама са ТВ Гантовизије ако је особа купац😀.

 

 

 

Izgubio sam godinu dana kirije od momenta kada sam rekao: Ovi ljudi nisu normalni koliko traže para, sigurno će cena pasti, do momenta kupovine stana. Stan u suštini nisam preplatio mnogo, samo sam se pomakao 500m dalje od reke u odnosu na ono što sam hteo. Jbg, nije strašno. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Splendini said:

Увек мора неки компромис да се направи, није страшно. Надам се само да имаш добру терасу за биљке, у тим бетонима је потребно што више се озеленити, нарочито за агроурбан особу😀.

8 kvadrata terase. Not great, not terrible, vec imam u planu biljčice, pošto tek sad krećem renoviranje. 😄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/5/2019 at 7:29 PM, Laki21 said:

Ne znam gde da postavim pitanje, treba mi podatak koliko je porasla cena potrošačke korpe u periodu 2012-2019.g, odnosno, rast vrednosti prosečnih plata u Srbiji u istom periodu.

 

Okvirno kraj 2012 oko 64 000 rsd, pocetak 2019 oko 70 000 rsd.

 

Sto se tice plata u evrima sa 330e na 470e u istom periodu, stim sto treba uzeti u obzir i da je smanjena nezaposlenost, uglavnom otvaranjem lošijih radnih mesta. Verovatno bi prosecna plata bila veca da nema ovih fabrika sa 30 000rsd platom.

 

Ono sto je dobro, devizne rezerve rastu, tako da će dinar ostati "jak", uz nisku inflaciju, ne bi trebalo da bude većeg rasta cena. Loše je što prosek ne oslikava realnu situaciju, jer veliki broj ljudi ima platu ispod proseka.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Yoyogi said:

Kazi publici sta su "devizne rezerve". Odakle one dolaze?

 

Nema nam na nesto pokretaca ovog topika. A bio je agilan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/28/2019 at 3:36 AM, Vredni mrav said:

 

Okvirno kraj 2012 oko 64 000 rsd, pocetak 2019 oko 70 000 rsd.

 

Sto se tice plata u evrima sa 330e na 470e u istom periodu, stim sto treba uzeti u obzir i da je smanjena nezaposlenost, uglavnom otvaranjem lošijih radnih mesta. Verovatno bi prosecna plata bila veca da nema ovih fabrika sa 30 000rsd platom.

 

Ono sto je dobro, devizne rezerve rastu, tako da će dinar ostati "jak", uz nisku inflaciju, ne bi trebalo da bude većeg rasta cena. Loše je što prosek ne oslikava realnu situaciju, jer veliki broj ljudi ima platu ispod proseka.

Kako prosek ne oslikava realnu situaciju? Šta onda daje realniju sliku? Normalno da veliki broj ima primanja ispod proseka, isto , bar približno, ima i onih sa primanjima iznad proseka, nego, pre će biti da je metod računanja prosečnih primanja prevaziđen, ako je ikada i valjao, pa da je zato realna slika iskrivljena.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jedan od razloga zašto nezaposlenost u Srbiji opada je i emigracija. Dobar deo onih koji su otišli u inostranstvo su nezaposleni ili su radili na crno. Da nije tako, nezaposlenost bi bila blizu 20 procenata.

 

A imamo i dovodjenje visoko subvencionisanih investicija po formuli 4-10.000 evra po radnom mestu. To je, po mom skromnom mišljenju, veliki promašaj. Uzimaju se pare uglavnom siromašnih poreskih obveznika i daju se velikim i bogatim kompanijama. Kao obrnuti Robin Hud. A radnici u tim fabrikama su većinom slabo plaćeni. Uzmimo npr. radnike u fabrikama automobilskih kablova (Jura, Leoni, Drekslmajer, Lear, Jazaki, Aptiv, PKC) koji u proseku primaju 30-35.000 dinara mesečno. Oni su i dalje sirotinja, jer im plata služi samo za preživljavanje. I njihova deca, ako ih imaju, će biti sirotinja. Tako se ukorenjuje siromaštvo. Izgleda da je to i cilj velikog vođe i njegovih jurišnika. Siromašnim narodom je lakše vladati.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesantni podaci o procentu nezaposlenosti u svijetu. Iznenadjenje je ili nije, visok stepen nezaposlenosti u Grckoj i Spaniji, NATO zemljama clanicama EU, kao i prijatno iznenadjenje visokom pozicijom Ceske sa samo 2.8% nezaposlenih.

Bravo Cesi :thumbsup:

Medjutim mnogo je tu i nelogicnosti :smiley33:

 

http://factsmaps.com/countries-with-the-highest-and-lowest-unemployment-rates/

 

unemployment.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Amigo said:

Medjutim mnogo je tu i nelogicnosti :smiley33:

 

Verovatno se radi o različitim metodama evidentiranja nezaposlenih. U Srbiji se drastično promenio procenat nezaposlenih kada su počeli da se broje u zaposlene svi koji rade makar jedan dan u mesecu po bilo kom osnovu, a u nezaposlene samo oni koji su na evidenciji službe za zapošljavanje i aktivno traže posao. 

Za Crnu Goru nedavno beše članak na b92 da je dovoljno da se prijaviš na oglas i kažeš da umeš da radiš, primljen si, nemaju dovoljno radnika. 

Moguće da je tako samo tokom turističke sezone, a moguće da je slično i u Grčkoj i Španiji.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Div said:

 

Verovatno se radi o različitim metodama evidentiranja nezaposlenih. U Srbiji se drastično promenio procenat nezaposlenih kada su počeli da se broje u zaposlene svi koji rade makar jedan dan u mesecu po bilo kom osnovu, a u nezaposlene samo oni koji su na evidenciji službe za zapošljavanje i aktivno traže posao. 

Za Crnu Goru nedavno beše članak na b92 da je dovoljno da se prijaviš na oglas i kažeš da umeš da radiš, primljen si, nemaju dovoljno radnika. 

Moguće da je tako samo tokom turističke sezone, a moguće da je slično i u Grčkoj i Španiji.

 

Da, različite metode. U Thai, niko od države ništa ne traži, sami se snađu ili su uvek imali neki prihod koji ih ne pokazuje kao nezaposlene.

 

Papua Nova Gvineja, na vrhu liste sa malom nezapošljenošću, tamo 99.5% stanovništva i ne zna ni šta znači biti nezaposlen niti šta znači biti zaposlen osim državne službe i nešto stranih kompanija.

Edited by Yoyogi
spelling: umesto "ržave" - "države"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...